# Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers

US SOC code 11-3071. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/11-3071

Also called: Transportation manager, Distribution manager, Warehouse manager, DC manager, Distribution center manager.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **221,180** US transportation, storage, and distribution managers, with median pay of **$107,230** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/transportation_in_the_united_states/index) of **32,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era in this work: Digital twin + AI route optimization + LLamasoft supply-chain design, 2012 to 2020.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 6.1% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=11-3071&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **47.3%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.59** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.59. BLS counted **102,610** of these jobs in May 2013 and **221,180** in May 2025 (+116%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1869
- Latest US employment: 221,180 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $107,230 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [7]
- Outlook: +6.1% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [19]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 32,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Bureau of Transportation Statistics [1] |
| 1935 | 68,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [2] |
| 1960 | 110,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., PR Newswire [3] |
| 1980 | 140,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [2] |
| 2000 | 116,680 | $54,230 | BLS OEWS 2000 [4] |
| 2003 | 97,450 | $63,590 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 88,100 | $66,600 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 84,870 | $69,120 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 89,010 | $73,080 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 92,790 | $76,310 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 96,300 | $79,000 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 92,380 | $79,490 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 90,280 | $80,210 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 92,150 | $80,860 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 98,600 | $81,830 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 102,610 | $83,890 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 106,000 | $85,400 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 109,210 | $86,630 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 113,270 | $89,190 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 118,680 | $92,460 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 124,810 | $94,730 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 132,040 | $94,560 | BLS OEWS May 2019 (employment) [5]; BLS OEWS May 2019 (pay) [8] |
| 2020 | 132,210 | $96,390 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 144,640 | $98,230 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 169,910 | $98,560 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 198,780 | $99,200 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 213,000 | $102,010 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 221,180 | $107,230 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (86)

### Employment series

1. [Bureau of Transportation Statistics — Transportation in the United States: A Review (historical freight employment and railroad agent series)](https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/transportation_in_the_united_states/index), Bureau of Transportation Statistics
2. [Wikipedia — Motor Carrier Act of 1980 (historical context on the pre-deregulation ICC-regulated trucking market and its 1935 origins)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_Carrier_Act_of_1980), Wikipedia
3. [PR Newswire — CSCMP Celebrates 50 Years (2013): "CSCMP was founded in 1963 as the National Council of Physical Distribution Management (NCPDM)"](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cscmp-celebrates-50-years-of-serving-supply-chain-management-professionals-around-the-world-190677681.html), Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals
4. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
8. [BLS OOH — Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers (May 2019 median annual wage $94,560)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/transportation-storage-and-distribution-managers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
9. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

10. [Bureau of Transportation Statistics — Transportation in the United States: A Review (railroad freight agent history and tariff-schedule era)](https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/transportation_in_the_united_states/index), Bureau of Transportation Statistics
11. [Wikipedia — Motor Carrier Act of 1980 (historical context on the 1935 Motor Carrier Act and ICC regulation of trucking)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_Carrier_Act_of_1980), Wikipedia
12. [Wikipedia — Malcom McLean: April 26, 1956, SS Ideal-X first container voyage; cost reduction from $5.86/ton to $0.16/ton; "The Father of Containerization"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcom_McLean), Wikipedia
13. [Wikipedia — Intermodal freight transport: ISO container standardization 1968-1970; rail intermodal traffic tripled between 1980 and 2002 (3.1M to 9.3M trailers/containers annually)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermodal_freight_transport), Wikipedia
14. [Wikipedia — NAFTA: January 1, 1994; US-Canada-Mexico trade grew from $337B (1993) to $1.2T (2011); integrated North American supply-chain management](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement), Wikipedia
15. [O\*NET 29.3 — 11-3071.00 Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers: 216,700 employed 2024](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/11-3071.00), O\*NET / BLS
16. [Warehouse Management System — Wikipedia: WMS market expected to grow from $2.8B (2021) to $6.1B by 2026 at 16.7% CAGR; over 300 WMS vendors in US alone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warehouse_management_system), Wikipedia
17. [BLS National Employment Matrix — 11-3071 Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers: 2024 employment 216,700; projected 2034 employment 229,800 (+6.1%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=11-3071&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
18. [Wikipedia — 2021 supply chain crisis: 2 billion+ out-of-stock messages in October 2021 (double 2020 rate); containers stranded in wrong parts of the supply chain; US trucking shortage worsened by pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_supply_chain_crisis), Wikipedia

### Forecasts and exposure studies

19. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 11-3071 Transportation, storage, and distribution managers (2025: 228.1 thousand; 2035: 242.1 thousand; +6.1%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=11-3071&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
20. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 11-3071 Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers: probability 0.59, rank 328 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
21. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 11-3071.00, human-rated β 0.473)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

22. [Wikipedia — First transcontinental railroad: completed May 10, 1869, at Promontory Summit, Utah; linked Pacific coast to eastern rail network; created the first continental freight market](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcontinental_railroad), Wikipedia
23. [Wikipedia — Motor Carrier Act of 1980 (historical context: the 1935 Act established ICC regulation that the 1980 Act deregulated; 45 years of regulatory framework)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_Carrier_Act_of_1980), Wikipedia
24. [Wikipedia — Malcom McLean: April 26, 1956, first container voyage SS Ideal-X; cost reduction from $5.86 to $0.16/ton; "The Father of Containerization"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcom_McLean), Wikipedia
25. [PR Newswire — CSCMP Celebrates 50 Years (2013): founded 1963 as NCPDM; renamed CLM 1985; renamed CSCMP 2005](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cscmp-celebrates-50-years-of-serving-supply-chain-management-professionals-around-the-world-190677681.html), Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals
26. [Wikipedia — NAFTA: January 1, 1994; US-Canada-Mexico trade $337B (1993) → $1.2T (2011); CANAMEX Corridor; integrated North American supply chains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement), Wikipedia
27. [Wikipedia — 2021 supply chain crisis: 2B+ out-of-stock messages October 2021 (double 2020); container ships at anchor outside LA/Long Beach; cascading domestic logistics disruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_supply_chain_crisis), Wikipedia
28. [BLS National Employment Matrix — 11-3071 (2024 baseline 216,700; 2034 projected 229,800; +6.1%) and O\*NET 29.3 (median wage $102,010; 18,500 annual openings)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=11-3071&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Predecessors & successors

29. [Bureau of Transportation Statistics — historical freight employment (railroad freight agent as precursor of transportation management)](https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/transportation_in_the_united_states/index), Bureau of Transportation Statistics
30. [BLS OOH — Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers: advancement to VP or C-suite supply chain roles as standard senior-career path](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/transportation-storage-and-distribution-managers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers (11-3071.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/11-3071.00), accessed 2026-05-23
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers (2024–2034)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/transportation-storage-and-distribution-managers.htm), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-23
- [McKinsey Global Institute — The Economic Potential of Generative AI (2023)](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/tech-and-ai/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier), accessed 2026-05-23
- [CSCMP — State of Logistics Report 2025](https://cscmp.org/CSCMP/Educate/SCM_Definitions_and_Glossary_of_Terms/CSCMP/Educate/SCM_Definitions_and_Glossary_of_Terms.aspx), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Gartner — Magic Quadrant for Warehouse Management Systems (2025)](https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/warehouse-management-systems-magic-quadrant), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Supply Chain Dive — How AI and Software Fit into Warehouse Robotics](https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/warehouse-robotics-implementation-ai-software/816122/), accessed 2026-06-21
- [Supply Chain Dive — Logistics Management Is Leveling Up with Generative AI](https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/supply-chains-genai-natural-language-tms/757957/), accessed 2026-06-21
- [ATA — Technology and Maintenance Council](https://www.trucking.org/technology-maintenance-council), accessed 2026-06-21
- [Trimble Transportation — Transportation Management Solutions](https://transportation.trimble.com/en/solutions/transportation-management), accessed 2026-06-21
- [McLeod Software — IQ AI for Trucking and Freight Brokerage (2025)](https://www.mcleod-software.com/products/iq), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Blue Yonder — AI-Native Supply Chain Platform: WMS + TMS Capabilities (2025)](https://blueyonder.com/solutions/transportation-management), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Manhattan Associates — Active WMS AI: Intelligent Slotting and Labor Management (2025)](https://www.manh.com/solutions/warehouse-management), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Blue Yonder — AI-Native Supply Chain Platform: WMS + TMS Capabilities (2025)](https://blueyonder.com/solutions/warehouse-management), accessed 2026-05-23

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.