# Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers

US SOC code 11-9013. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/11-9013

## In brief

In 2025, BLS counted **788,700** US farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers, including the self-employed. Median pay was **$89,900** a year in May 2025. The earliest figure here is [a Census count](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/1943/demo/occ-1870-1930-ch2.pdf) of **3,127,715** from 1870, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era in this work: Hybrid seed, chemical fertilizer and pesticides, 1930 to 1995.

Figures: Official statistic (latest count, pay); Researched context (earliest figure).

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 3.4% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=11-9013&ioType=o) (Official statistic).

### AI exposure studies

- **24.5%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) (Official statistic)
- **0.047** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) (Official statistic)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35.

## Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1700
- Latest US employment: 788,700 (2025). Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025 [3]
- Latest US median pay: $89,900 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Outlook: -3.4% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [16]

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1870 | 3,127,715 | n/a | Decennial Census 1870 [1] |
| 1880 | 4,301,412 | n/a | Decennial Census 1880 [1] |
| 1890 | 5,382,037 | n/a | Decennial Census 1890 [1] |
| 1900 | 5,763,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1900 [2] |
| 1910 | 6,163,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1910 [2] |
| 1920 | 6,442,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1920 [2] |
| 1930 | 6,032,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1930 [2] |
| 1940 | 5,362,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1940 [2] |
| 1950 | 4,375,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1950 [2] |
| 1960 | 2,526,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1960 [2] |
| 1970 | 1,350,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1970 [2] |
| 2010 | n/a | $60,750 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [4] |
| 2011 | n/a | $64,660 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [4] |
| 2012 | n/a | $69,300 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [4] |
| 2013 | n/a | $70,110 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [4] |
| 2014 | n/a | $68,050 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [4] |
| 2015 | n/a | $64,170 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [4] |
| 2016 | n/a | $66,360 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [4] |
| 2017 | n/a | $69,620 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [4] |
| 2018 | n/a | $67,950 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [4] |
| 2019 | n/a | $71,160 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [4] |
| 2020 | n/a | $68,090 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [4] |
| 2021 | n/a | $73,060 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | n/a | $75,760 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | n/a | $83,770 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | n/a | $87,980 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 788,700 | $89,900 | BLS Employment Projections 2025 (employment) [3]; BLS OEWS May 2025 (pay) [4] |

## Sources (39)

### Employment series

1. [US Census Bureau, Comparative Occupation Statistics for the United States, 1870 to 1940 (Edwards, 1943), Part II, Table 8, p. 104: Farmers (owners and tenants) plus Farm managers and foremen, 1870](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/1943/demo/occ-1870-1930-ch2.pdf), US Census Bureau
2. [Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Series D 292 (Farmers and farm managers), p. 141: 1900](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/1975/compendia/hist_stats_colonial-1970/hist_stats_colonial-1970p1-chD.pdf), US Census Bureau
3. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix (occupation.xlsx, Table 1.2, archived copy): 11-9013 Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers, 788.7 thousand jobs in 2025](https://web.archive.org/web/20260901010043/https://www.bls.gov/emp/ind-occ-matrix/occupation.xlsx), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Wage series

4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

5. [National Park Service, National Register of Historic Places nomination: McCormick (Cyrus) Farm and Workshop (Walnut Grove), Virginia](https://npgallery.nps.gov/GetAsset/71400587-f6c2-4bad-8545-5e3673a3683b), US National Park Service
6. [Smithsonian Magazine, "John Deere Was a Real Person, His Invention Changed the Country"](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/john-deere-was-a-real-person-his-invention-changed-the-country-4017033/), Smithsonian
7. [National Archives, Milestone Documents: Morrill Act (1862)](https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/morrill-act), US National Archives
8. [National Archives, Milestone Documents: Homestead Act (1862)](https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/homestead-act), US National Archives
9. [USDA ERS, The Seed Industry in U.S. Agriculture (AIB-786, 2004): Morrill Act (1862), Hatch Act (1887) and Smith-Lever Act (1914)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/8150/aib-786.pdf?v=70825), USDA Economic Research Service
10. [The Henry Ford, Henry Ford: Tractors (collections set)](https://www.thehenryford.org/collections/explore/sets/detail/henry-ford-tractors), The Henry Ford
11. [USDA ERS, The 20th Century Transformation of U.S. Agriculture and Farm Policy (EIB-3, 2005), "Mechanization" box and "Farming's changing role" table](https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/8254/eib-3.pdf?v=49709), USDA Economic Research Service
12. [US Census of Agriculture 1954, Farm Facilities and Farm Equipment, introduction](https://www.nass.usda.gov/AgCensus/archive/files/1954-Farm_Facilities_Farm_Equipment-1954-02-intro.pdf), US Bureau of the Census (via USDA NASS archive)
13. [USDA ERS, Adoption of Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States: Recent Trends in GE Adoption](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/adoption-of-genetically-engineered-crops-in-the-united-states/recent-trends-in-ge-adoption), USDA Economic Research Service
14. [USDA ERS, Precision Agriculture in the Digital Era: Recent Adoption on U.S. Farms (EIB-248, 2023)](https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/publications/105894/EIB-248.pdf?v=27908), USDA Economic Research Service
15. [USDA NASS, Farm Computer Usage and Ownership (Technology Use), August 2023](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/h128nd689/4j03fg187/b5646866n/fmpc0823.txt), USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

### Forecasts and exposure studies

16. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 11-9013 Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers (2025: 788.7 thousand; 2035: 762.2 thousand; -3.4%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=11-9013&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
17. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 11-9013.00, human-rated β 0.245)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI
18. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 11-9013 Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers: probability 0.047, rank 137 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

### Historical notes

19. [USDA ERS, The 20th Century Transformation of U.S. Agriculture and Farm Policy (EIB-3, 2005), "Farming's changing role in the Nation's economy"](https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/8254/eib-3.pdf?v=49709), USDA Economic Research Service
20. [USDA ERS Chart Gallery, "The number of U.S. farms continues slow decline" (2025)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/58268), USDA Economic Research Service
21. [USDA NASS, 2022 Census of Agriculture Highlights: Farm Producers (2024)](https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Highlights/2024/Census22_HL_FarmProducers_FINAL.pdf), USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
22. [USDA ERS, America's Farms and Ranches at a Glance: 2024 Edition (EIB-283)](https://ers.usda.gov/media/9120/eib-283.pdf), USDA Economic Research Service

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-21
- [O\*NET 30.3 — US Department of Labor](https://www.onetcenter.org/database.html), accessed 2026-05-21

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.