# Cost Estimators

US SOC code 13-1051. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/13-1051

Also called: Construction estimator, Senior estimator, Chief estimator, Estimating manager, MEP estimator.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **224,220** US cost estimators, with median pay of **$78,740** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **225,310**, in May 2022, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AACE_International) of **85,000** from 1960, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for cost estimators: Cloud estimating platforms + model-based cost management, 2015 to 2022.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 3.1% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=13-1051&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **48.1%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.57** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.57. BLS counted **202,600** of these jobs in May 2013 and **224,220** in May 2025 (+11%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Cost Estimators employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1893
- Latest US employment: 224,220 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [3]
- Latest US median pay: $78,740 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Outlook: -3.1% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [18]

### All 25 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1960 | 85,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., AACE International [1] |
| 1980 | 120,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [2] |
| 2003 | 184,620 | $48,290 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [3] |
| 2004 | 191,080 | $49,940 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [3] |
| 2005 | 204,330 | $52,020 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [3] |
| 2006 | 216,900 | $52,940 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [3] |
| 2007 | 219,070 | $54,920 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [3] |
| 2008 | 218,400 | $56,510 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [3] |
| 2009 | 197,330 | $57,300 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [3] |
| 2010 | 183,790 | $57,860 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [3] |
| 2011 | 187,730 | $58,460 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [3] |
| 2012 | 195,230 | $58,860 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [3] |
| 2013 | 202,600 | $59,460 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [3] |
| 2014 | 209,130 | $60,050 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [3] |
| 2015 | 216,270 | $60,390 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [3] |
| 2016 | 214,610 | $61,790 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [3] |
| 2017 | 210,900 | $63,110 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [3] |
| 2018 | 211,600 | $64,040 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [3] |
| 2019 | 210,000 | $65,250 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [3] |
| 2020 | 199,360 | $66,610 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [3] |
| 2021 | 208,950 | $65,170 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [3] |
| 2022 | 225,310 | $71,200 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [3] |
| 2023 | 220,970 | $74,740 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [3] |
| 2024 | 219,530 | $77,070 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [3] |
| 2025 | 224,220 | $78,740 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [3] |

## Sources (87)

### Employment series

1. [AACE International — founding history (1956, 59 members at University of New Hampshire)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AACE_International), Wikipedia / AACE International
2. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Cost Estimators (current, citing historical context)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/business-and-financial/cost-estimators.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
5. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

6. [Wikipedia — Cost estimate (history of estimating methods and unit-cost handbooks)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_estimate), Wikipedia
7. [Gordian RSMeans — About RSMeans (history of construction cost data publication since 1940)](https://www.gordian.com/resources/rsmeans-data-online-create-better-estimates/), Gordian / RSMeans
8. [Wikipedia — Computervision (founded 1969, CADDS systems, first commercial CAD company)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computervision), Wikipedia
9. [Wikipedia — AutoCAD (December 1982 release; most ubiquitous CAD program by March 1986)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AutoCAD), Wikipedia
10. [Wikipedia — Microsoft Excel (history and adoption in business and construction estimating)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Excel), Wikipedia
11. [ConstructConnect — On-Screen Takeoff (OST): digital takeoff from PDF plans, AI-powered measurement](https://www.constructconnect.com/products/on-screen-takeoff), ConstructConnect
12. [Wikipedia — Autodesk Revit (founded as Charles River Software 1997; Autodesk acquisition 2002 for $133M)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autodesk_Revit), Wikipedia
13. [Bluebeam — About Bluebeam (founded 2002 in Pasadena, PDF markup and measurement for AEC)](https://www.bluebeam.com/company/), Bluebeam
14. [Procore Technologies — About Procore (construction management platform, IPO 2021)](https://www.procore.com/company), Procore Technologies
15. [Autodesk — Construction Cost Management Software (BIM-integrated cost tracking and management, Autodesk Forma/Build)](https://construction.autodesk.com/workflows/construction-cost-management/), Autodesk
16. [Togal.AI — About (AI-powered automatic construction takeoff from PDF drawings; Patrick Murphy, founder)](https://www.togal.ai/about), Togal.AI
17. [BLS National Employment Matrix — 13-1051 Cost Estimators (2024-34 projections: -4.2% decline)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=13-1051&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Forecasts and exposure studies

18. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 13-1051 Cost estimators (2025: 226.4 thousand; 2035: 219.5 thousand; -3.1%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=13-1051&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
19. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 13-1051 Cost Estimators: probability 0.57, rank 321 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
20. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 13-1051.00, human-rated β 0.481)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

21. [Wikipedia — Cost estimate (history of estimating methodology and professional development)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_estimate), Wikipedia
22. [Gordian RSMeans — About RSMeans (history of construction cost data, first published 1940)](https://www.gordian.com/resources/rsmeans-data-online-create-better-estimates/), Gordian / RSMeans
23. [Wikipedia — AACE International (founded 1956, University of New Hampshire, 59 founding members)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AACE_International), Wikipedia / AACE International
24. [Wikipedia — AutoCAD (December 1982 release; most ubiquitous CAD program by March 1986)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AutoCAD), Wikipedia
25. [Wikipedia — Autodesk Revit ($133M acquisition of Revit Technology Corporation, 2002)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autodesk_Revit), Wikipedia
26. [Frey & Osborne (2013) — "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?" (Oxford Martin School)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School
27. [US Congress — Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (H.R. 3684, signed November 15, 2021)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684), US Congress
28. [BLS National Employment Matrix — 13-1051 Cost Estimators 2024-34 projections](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=13-1051&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Predecessors & successors

29. [Wikipedia — Cost estimate (evolution from craft-based pricing to professional estimating)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_estimate), Wikipedia
30. [AACE International — founding history (1956; 59 founding members were cost engineers and cost estimators)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AACE_International), AACE International / Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Cost Estimators (13-1051.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/13-1051.00), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Cost Estimators (2024–2034)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/business-and-financial/cost-estimators.htm), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Togal.AI — 2025 Features Roundup: How Togal.AI Transformed Your Estimating This Year](https://www.togal.ai/blog/2025-features-roundup), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Togal.AI — How Much Money Does Togal.AI Save Construction Businesses?](https://www.togal.ai/blog/how-much-money-does-togal-ai-save-construction), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Gordian — Flash AI Estimating Launch (March 17, 2026): RSMeans-backed conceptual estimates in \<1 hour](https://www.gordian.com/press/gordian-flash-ai-estimating-construction-cost-estimates/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Trimble — Stop Counting, Start Winning: How AI Is Transforming Your Estimating Workflow](https://www.trimble.com/blog/construction/en-US/article/stop-counting-start-winning-how-ai-is-transforming-your-estimating-workflow), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Paperless Parts — New AI Features (Wingman Requirements Review, Oct 2025 GA)](https://www.paperlessparts.com/press/paperless-parts-new-ai-features-surface-critical-requirements-helping-shops-quote-faster-with-confidence/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Attentive.ai — Beam AI Expands: plumbing and structural steel takeoffs in 10 minutes](https://www.forconstructionpros.com/construction-technology/estimating-bidding/product/22964682/attentive-attentiveai-expands-beam-ai-to-accelerate-construction-estimating), accessed 2026-05-24
- [ENR — Building Certainty: How to Use AI in Construction Estimating](https://www.enr.com/articles/61316-building-certainty-how-to-use-ai-in-construction-estimating), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Epicor — AI Agent for RFQ Automation (Epicor Prism Business Communications)](https://www.epicor.com/en/blog/technology-and-data/the-role-of-ai-in-cpq/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [STACK Construction Technologies — STACK Assist AI and Floor Plan AI features (2025–2026)](https://www.stackct.com/stack-assist/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Trimble AutoBid Mechanical — MEP Estimating Software](https://www.trimble.com/en/products/trimble-autobid-mechanical), accessed 2026-05-24
- [RSMeans Data Online — 92,000+ unit line items with 3-year price forecasting](https://www.gordian.com/products/rsmeans-data-services/), accessed 2026-05-24

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.