# Computer Programmers

US SOC code 15-1251. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/15-1251

Also called: Programmer, Programmer analyst, COBOL programmer, RPG programmer, Mainframe programmer.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **92,230** US computer programmers, with median pay of **$100,390** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **152,610**, in May 2021. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_programming) of **15,000** from 1957, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for computer programmers: OpenAI Codex, 2021 to 2022.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 7.3% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=15-1251&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **68.3%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.48** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

## Computer Programmers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1945
- Latest US employment: 92,230 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $100,390 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [8]
- Outlook: -7.3% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [25]

### All 13 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1957 | 15,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [1] |
| 1970 | 200,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Census Bureau / ACS-35 [2] |
| 1980 | 310,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Fortune [3] |
| 2000 | 700,000 (estimate) | $57,590 | Est., Fortune (employment) [3]; BLS OEWS 2000 (pay) [6] |
| 2006 | 435,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Smash Company [4] |
| 2011 | n/a | $74,280 (estimate) | Est., Estimated 2011 median annual wage… [7] |
| 2019 | 199,540 | $86,550 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 178,140 | $89,190 | BLS OEWS May 2020 (employment) [5]; BLS OEWS May 2020 (pay) [9] |
| 2021 | 152,610 | $93,000 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 132,740 | $97,800 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 120,370 | $99,700 | BLS OEWS May 2023 (employment) [5]; BLS OEWS May 2023 (pay) [10] |
| 2024 | 109,870 | $98,670 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 92,230 | $100,390 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (55)

### Employment series

1. [Wikipedia — Computer programming (history section, 1957 employment figure)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_programming), Wikipedia
2. [Census Bureau / ACS-35 — "Occupations in Information Technology" (2016, historical series)](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2016/acs/acs-35.html), US Census Bureau
3. [Fortune — "Employment for computer programmers in the US has plummeted to its lowest level since 1980" (March 2025)](https://fortune.com/2025/03/17/computer-programming-jobs-lowest-1980-ai/), Fortune
4. [Smash Company — "The Decline of Computer Programming in the USA" (secondary analysis of BLS data)](https://web.archive.org/web/20221219095732/http://www.smashcompany.com/business/the-decline-of-computer-programming-in-the-usa), Smash Company / BLS
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. [Estimated 2011 median annual wage (~$74,280), derived from the BLS OEWS May 2011 mean of $76,010 for Computer Programmers (via CodeSubmit, "The Evolution of Developer Salaries")](https://www.codesubmit.io/blog/the-evolution-of-developer-salaries), Derived estimate (CodeSubmit, from BLS OEWS 2011 mean)
8. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
9. [BLS OEWS May 2020 — Computer Programmers (oes151251), median annual wage](https://www.bls.gov/oes/2020/may/oes151251.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. [BLS OEWS May 2023 — Computer Programmers (oes151251), median annual wage](https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes151251.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

12. [IEEE Spectrum — "The Women Behind ENIAC" (ENIAC programming method)](https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-women-behind-eniac), IEEE Spectrum
13. [Wikipedia — Computer programming (Grace Hopper, A-0 compiler 1952)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_programming), Wikipedia
14. [IBM — "Fortran" (official IBM history of FORTRAN development and 1957 release)](https://www.ibm.com/history/fortran), IBM
15. [Wikipedia — Time-sharing (computing history, 1960s)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-sharing), Wikipedia
16. [ACM Digital Library — Dijkstra, "Go To Statement Considered Harmful", CACM Vol 11 No 3 (March 1968)](https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/362929.362947), ACM / Communications of the ACM
17. [Wikipedia — Turbo Pascal (Borland, 1983 — PC programming acceleration)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turbo_Pascal), Wikipedia
18. [Wikipedia — Dot-com bubble (employment and layoff data, 2001)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble), Wikipedia
19. [Wikipedia — GitHub (founding and launch, April 2008)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GitHub), Wikipedia
20. [Wikipedia — Amazon Web Services (AWS launch history, 2006)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Web_Services), Wikipedia
21. [arXiv:2107.03374 — "Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code" (OpenAI, August 2021)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.03374), OpenAI / arXiv
22. [TechCrunch — "Copilot, GitHub's AI-powered programming assistant, is now generally available" (June 21, 2022)](https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/21/copilot-githubs-ai-powered-programming-assistant-is-now-generally-available/), TechCrunch / GitHub
23. [GitHub Blog — "Research: Quantifying GitHub Copilot's Impact on Developer Productivity" (September 2022)](https://github.blog/2022-09-07-research-quantifying-github-copilots-impact-on-developer-productivity-and-happiness/), GitHub
24. [Anthropic Economic Index, January 2026 report: computer and mathematical tasks matched 34% of sampled Claude.ai conversations and 46% of first-party API transcripts (November 2025)](https://www.anthropic.com/research/anthropic-economic-index-january-2026-report), Anthropic

### Forecasts and exposure studies

25. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 15-1251 Computer programmers (2025: 110.8 thousand; 2035: 102.7 thousand; -7.3%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=15-1251&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
26. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 15-1131 Computer Programmers: probability 0.48, rank 293 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
27. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 15-1251.00, human-rated β 0.683)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

28. [IEEE Spectrum — "The Women Behind ENIAC"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-women-behind-eniac), IEEE Spectrum
29. [ACM Digital Library — Dijkstra, "Go To Statement Considered Harmful", CACM (March 1968)](https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/362929.362947), ACM
30. [Wikipedia — The Mythical Man-Month (Brooks, 1975)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month), Wikipedia
31. [Wikipedia — Dot-com bubble (employment data and 2001 layoffs)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble), Wikipedia
32. [arXiv:2107.03374 — "Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code" (OpenAI Codex, August 2021)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.03374), OpenAI
33. [TechCrunch — "Copilot, GitHub's AI-powered programming assistant, is now generally available" (June 21, 2022)](https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/21/copilot-githubs-ai-powered-programming-assistant-is-now-generally-available/), TechCrunch
34. [Fortune — "Employment for computer programmers in the US has plummeted to its lowest level since 1980" (March 2025)](https://fortune.com/2025/03/17/computer-programming-jobs-lowest-1980-ai/), Fortune

### Predecessors & successors

35. [History — "When Computer Coding Was a Woman's Job" (ENIAC programmers came from human-computer pools)](https://www.history.com/articles/coding-used-to-be-a-womans-job-so-it-was-paid-less-and-undervalued), History
36. [Wikipedia — Computer programming (emergence from engineering in the 1950s)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_programming), Wikipedia
37. [Smithsonian — "The Gendered History of Human Computers" (historical role transitions)](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/history-human-computers-180972202/), Smithsonian Magazine
38. [BLS OOH — Software Developers (2024-34 projection: +17% vs. computer programmers -10%)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Computer Programmers (15-1251.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/15-1251.00), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Computer Programmers (2024)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm), accessed 2026-05-24
- [GitHub — Quantifying GitHub Copilot Impact on Developer Productivity (2022)](https://github.blog/2022-09-07-research-quantifying-github-copilots-impact-on-developer-productivity-and-happiness/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [GitHub — Survey: AI Impact on the Developer Experience (2023)](https://github.blog/news-insights/research/survey-reveals-ais-impact-on-the-developer-experience/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-24
- [CodeRabbit — Automatically creates docstrings; automates standup and sprint reports](https://www.coderabbit.ai), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Devin AI — Autonomous code migrations, PR review, bug fixing, documentation, and testing](https://devin.ai), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Cursor AI — Agentic development: plans and builds features end-to-end for review](https://cursor.com), accessed 2026-05-24

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.