# Software Developers

US SOC code 15-1252. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/15-1252

Also called: Software engineer, SWE, Developer, Software dev, Backend developer.

## In brief

The record opens on an estimate: the **six** ENIAC programmers of 1945. Today: **1.69 million**. Median pay was **$135,980** a year in May 2025. The last full technology era for software developers: Autonomous coding agents arrive, 2024 to 2025. The 2024 story was substitution: a machine pitched to do the whole job.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 10.2% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=15-1252&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **44.7%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **29%** of work tasks in computer and mathematical occupations, this job's group, are exposed to automation by AI. Not a forecast of job losses. [Goldman Sachs, 2023](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35.

## Software Developers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1945
- Latest US employment: 1,687,890 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Latest US median pay: $135,980 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [15]
- Outlook: +10.2% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [42]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 21232)
  - Employment, 2020: 87,015. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [7]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 21232 Software developers and programmers, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$91,000. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [19]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 21232 Software developers and programmers, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.
- **United Kingdom** (UK SOC 2134)
  - Employment, 2025: 360,000. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [10]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14): employee jobs in SOC 2134 Programmers and software development professionals, United Kingdom, 2025 (ASHE "number of jobs", thousands x1000; excludes self-employment). Open Government Licence v3.0.
  - Median pay, 2025: £55,587. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [22]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14.7a): median gross annual pay for all employee jobs in SOC 2134 Programmers and software development professionals, United Kingdom, 2025. Open Government Licence v3.0.
- **Australia** (ANZSCO 2613)
  - Employment, 2025: 188,400. Source: ABS Labour Force Survey March 2026 [11]. ABS Labour Force Survey (Detailed), table EQ08: employed persons in ANZSCO 2613 Software and Applications Programmers, national (summed across sex and state/territory), annual average of 4 quarterly estimates.
  - Median pay, 2025: A$131,924. Source: ABS Employee Earnings May 2025 [23]. Annualised (x52) from A$2,537 median weekly earnings. ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025: median pay for full-time non-managerial employees paid at the adult rate, before tax. Surfaced via the Jobs and Skills Australia occupation profile for ANZSCO 2613.

### All 12 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1945 | 6 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [1] |
| 1957 | 15,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [2] |
| 1980 | 318,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Fortune (Mar 17, 2025) [3] |
| 1990 | n/a | $34,000 | BLS CPS 1990 [12] |
| 1999 | n/a | $64,031 | Census 2000 [13] |
| 2000 | 707,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Fortune (Mar 17, 2025) [3] |
| 2008 | n/a | $85,430 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [14] |
| 2021 | 1,364,180 | $120,730 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | 1,534,790 | $127,260 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | 1,656,880 | $132,270 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | 1,654,440 | $133,080 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 1,687,890 | $135,980 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [4] |

## Sources (76)

### Employment series

1. [Wikipedia — ENIAC (programmers section)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENIAC), Wikipedia
2. [Wikipedia — Computer programming (history section)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_programming), Wikipedia
3. [Fortune (Mar 17, 2025), citing BLS Current Population Survey — “more than 300,000 computer-programming jobs in 1980”](https://fortune.com/2025/03/17/computer-programming-jobs-lowest-1980-ai/), Fortune (per BLS Current Population Survey)
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
5. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
6. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
8. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 2136, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip)
9. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 2134, United Kingdom, 2022. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), Office for National Statistics
10. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 2134, United Kingdom, 2025. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip), Office for National Statistics
11. [ABS: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, table EQ08 (Employed persons by Occupation unit group, ANZSCO 2013), March 2026](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/latest-release), Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Wage series

12. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 1992-93 (Bulletin 2400), CPS: median earnings of full-time computer programmers in 1990 were about $34,000 (middle 50% $25,700 to $42,300). Programmers is the closest 1990 occupation to today's Software Developers and understates current software-developer pay.](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/occupational-outlook-handbook-3964/occupational-outlook-handbook-1992-93-edition-583133/fulltext), BLS-CPS
13. [U.S. Census 2000, Earnings by Detailed Occupation (Table 2): Computer Software Engineers (the Census 2000 predecessor of SOC 15-1252), year-round full-time median earnings $64,031 for 1999.](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/tables/2000/earnings-occupation/call2usboth.csv), CENSUS
14. [BLS OEWS May 2008, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), SOC 15-1031 row](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
15. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
16. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
17. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
18. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
19. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
20. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 2136, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip)
21. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 2134, United Kingdom, 2022. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), Office for National Statistics
22. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 2134, United Kingdom, 2025. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip), Office for National Statistics
23. [Jobs and Skills Australia: Software and Applications Programmers (ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025)](https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/data/occupation-and-industry-profiles/occupations/2613-software-and-applications-programmers), Jobs and Skills Australia / Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Tool eras

24. [Wikipedia — ENIAC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENIAC), Wikipedia
25. [Computer History Museum — Timeline of Software Languages](https://www.computerhistory.org/timeline/software-languages/), Computer History Museum
26. [Wikipedia — History of programming languages](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_programming_languages), Wikipedia
27. [Wikipedia — Visual Basic (predecessor language list)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_Basic), Wikipedia
28. [Wikipedia — Agile software development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agile_software_development), Wikipedia
29. [Wikipedia — Amazon Web Services](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AWS), Wikipedia
30. [GitHub Blog — Introducing GitHub Models (Aug 2024) \[cites the 100M-user figure\]](https://github.blog/2024-08-22-introducing-github-models/), GitHub
31. [Wikipedia — DevOps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DevOps), Wikipedia
32. [Wikipedia — GitHub Copilot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GitHub_Copilot), Wikipedia
33. [Stack Overflow 2024 Developer Survey — AI section (63.2% of professional developers using AI tools; 82% use AI for code generation; favorability 72%, down from 77% in 2023)](https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2024/ai), Stack Overflow
34. [Wikipedia: Devin AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devin_AI), Wikipedia
35. [JetBrains Research: Which AI Coding Tools Do Developers Actually Use at Work? (AI Pulse, January 2026)](https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/04/which-ai-coding-tools-do-developers-actually-use-at-work/), JetBrains
36. [OpenAI: Introducing Codex (cloud software-engineering agent, May 16, 2025)](https://openai.com/index/introducing-codex/), OpenAI
37. [Wikipedia: Codex (AI agent) \[CLI April 2025, cloud May 2025, 2M+ weekly active users by March 2026\]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Codex_%28AI_agent%29), Wikipedia
38. [OpenAI: Introducing GPT-5.3-Codex (February 2026; "Spark" low-latency variant on Cerebras)](https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-3-codex/), OpenAI
39. [Stack Overflow 2025 Developer Survey: AI](https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2025/ai/), Stack Overflow
40. [TechCrunch: Cognition, maker of the AI coding agent Devin, acquires Windsurf](https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/14/cognition-maker-of-the-ai-coding-agent-devin-acquires-windsurf/), TechCrunch
41. [Anthropic Economic Index, January 2026 report: "modifying software to correct errors" the most common API task; computer and mathematical tasks matched 46% of first-party API transcripts (November 2025)](https://www.anthropic.com/research/anthropic-economic-index-january-2026-report), Anthropic

### Forecasts and exposure studies

42. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 15-1252 Software developers (2025: 1,717.8 thousand; 2035: 1,892.6 thousand; +10.2%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=15-1252&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
43. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 15-1252.00, human-rated β 0.447)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI
44. [Briggs & Kodnani, "The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth", Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst (26 March 2023), Exhibit 5 (US): computer and mathematical 29%](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf), Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

### Historical notes

45. [Wikipedia — Computer programming](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_programming), Wikipedia
46. [Computer History Museum — Software Languages timeline](https://www.computerhistory.org/timeline/software-languages/), Computer History Museum
47. [Wikipedia — Agile software development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agile_software_development), Wikipedia
48. [BLS — Standard Occupational Classification 2018](https://www.bls.gov/soc/2018/major_groups.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
49. [Wikipedia — GitHub Copilot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GitHub_Copilot), Wikipedia
50. [Fortune — "Employment for computer programmers in the U.S. has plummeted to its lowest level since 1980" (March 17, 2025)](https://fortune.com/2025/03/17/computer-programming-jobs-lowest-1980-ai/), Fortune
51. [JetBrains Research: Which AI Coding Tools Do Developers Actually Use at Work? (AI Pulse, January 2026)](https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/04/which-ai-coding-tools-do-developers-actually-use-at-work/), JetBrains

### Predecessors & successors

52. [Wikipedia — ENIAC (origin of "computer" as a human role)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENIAC), Wikipedia
53. [Fortune — "Employment for computer programmers has plummeted to its lowest level since 1980" (March 2025)](https://fortune.com/2025/03/17/computer-programming-jobs-lowest-1980-ai/), Fortune

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Software Developers (15-1252.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/15-1252.00), accessed 2026-05-22
- [Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2025 — AI tool adoption](https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2025/ai/), accessed 2026-05-22
- [Uvik — AI Coding Assistant Statistics 2026](https://uvik.net/blog/ai-coding-assistant-statistics/), accessed 2026-05-22
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-21
- [Goldman Sachs — How Will AI Affect the Global Workforce?](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-will-ai-affect-the-global-workforce), accessed 2026-05-22
- [McKinsey — The AI Revolution in Software Development](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/tech-and-ai/our-insights/the-ai-revolution-in-software-development), accessed 2026-05-22
- [IBM — Goldman Sachs Deploys Devin as First AI Employee](https://www.ibm.com/think/news/goldman-sachs-first-ai-employee-devin), accessed 2026-05-22
- [Cognition — Windsurf acquisition announcement (~$250M, Dec 2025)](https://cognition.com/blog/windsurf), accessed 2026-05-22
- [Stack Overflow blog — Developer Survey 2025 results writeup (Claude Code 10%, Cursor 18%)](https://stackoverflow.blog/2025/12/29/developers-remain-willing-but-reluctant-to-use-ai-the-2025-developer-survey-results-are-here/), accessed 2026-05-22
- [Devin.ai — Code migrations and refactors (parallelizes large modernization projects)](https://devin.ai/), accessed 2026-05-22
- [AI Coding Tools Adoption Rates: 2026 Engineering Study — Cursor $2B ARR, fastest SaaS growth on record](https://blog.exceeds.ai/ai-coding-tools-adoption-rates/), accessed 2026-05-22
- [Replit — Replit AI Agent (build from natural language)](https://replit.com/ai), accessed 2026-05-22

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.