# Actuaries

US SOC code 15-2011. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/15-2011

Also called: Pricing actuary, Reserving actuary, Casualty actuary, Property casualty actuary, P&C actuary.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **26,670** US actuaries, with median pay of **$130,000** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **28,340**, in May 2024. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](http://web.archive.org/web/20260414064326/https://hugginsactuarial.com/historical-background-of-actuaries/) of **1,069** from 1949, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for actuaries: Akur8, hyperexponential, WTW Radar 5, 2022 to 2024.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 9.2% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=15-2011&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **53.7%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.21** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.21. BLS counted **20,080** of these jobs in May 2013 and **26,670** in May 2025 (+33%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Actuaries employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1762
- Latest US employment: 26,670 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [3]
- Latest US median pay: $130,000 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Outlook: +9.2% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [24]

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1949 | 1,069 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Huggins Actuarial Services [1] |
| 1969 | 5,500 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Huggins Actuarial [1] |
| 1989 | 18,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Huggins Actuarial [1] |
| 2000 | 12,890 | $66,590 | BLS OEWS 2000 [2] |
| 2003 | 14,680 | $72,520 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [3] |
| 2004 | 16,350 | $76,340 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [3] |
| 2005 | 15,770 | $81,640 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [3] |
| 2006 | 16,620 | $82,800 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [3] |
| 2007 | 18,030 | $85,690 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [3] |
| 2008 | 18,220 | $84,810 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [3] |
| 2009 | 17,940 | $87,210 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [3] |
| 2010 | 18,320 | $87,650 | BLS OEWS May 2010 (employment) [3]; BLS OEWS May 2010 (pay) [6] |
| 2011 | 19,590 | $91,060 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [3] |
| 2012 | 21,340 | $93,680 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [3] |
| 2013 | 20,080 | $94,340 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [3] |
| 2014 | 21,490 | $96,700 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [3] |
| 2015 | 19,770 | $97,070 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [3] |
| 2016 | 19,940 | $100,610 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [3] |
| 2017 | 19,210 | $101,560 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [3] |
| 2018 | 20,760 | $102,880 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [3] |
| 2019 | 22,260 | $108,350 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [3] |
| 2020 | 22,480 | $111,030 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [3] |
| 2021 | 23,040 | $105,900 | BLS OEWS May 2021 (employment) [3]; BLS OEWS (pay) [7] |
| 2022 | 25,010 | $113,990 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [3] |
| 2023 | 25,470 | $120,000 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [3] |
| 2024 | 28,340 | $125,770 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [3] |
| 2025 | 26,670 | $130,000 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [3] |

## Sources (91)

### Employment series

1. [Huggins Actuarial Services — Historical Background of Actuaries (SOA membership 1889–1995 table)](http://web.archive.org/web/20260414064326/https://hugginsactuarial.com/historical-background-of-actuaries/), Huggins Actuarial Services / Society of Actuaries historical records
2. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

4. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
6. [BLS OES May 2010 — Actuaries (15-2011) median annual wage estimate](https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. [BLS OOH (2022-23 edition) — Actuaries median annual wage $105,900](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/math/actuaries.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
8. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

9. [Edmond Halley — "An Estimate of the Degrees of the Mortality of Mankind; drawn from curious Tables of the Births and Funerals at the City of Breslaw" (Philosophical Transactions No. 196, 1693)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstl.1693.0007), Royal Society / Philosophical Transactions
10. [DePaul University — "Edmond Halley's Life Table and Its Uses" (Ciecka; historical context of early actuarial computation)](https://fac.comtech.depaul.edu/jciecka/Halley.pdf), DePaul University / Journal of Legal Economics
11. [MIT CCSWP 153 — "From Tabulators to Early Computers in the U.S. Life Insurance Industry" (history of mechanical computation in insurance)](http://ccs.mit.edu/papers/ccswp153.html), MIT Center for Coordination Science
12. [Asia Pacific Actuarial Conference 2024 — "The History and Evolution of Actuarial Science" (mainframes transform actuarial practice)](https://aac2024.hk/the-history-and-evolution-of-actuarial-science/), Asia Pacific Actuarial Conference
13. [InsuranceERM — "Towers Perrin: MoSes, RiskAgility, RiskAgility PC" (MoSes as pre-eminent actuarial modelling platform, Tillinghast history)](https://www.insuranceerm.com/analysis/financial-and-risk-modelling-software-moves-into-qualitative-areas/towers-perrin-moses-riskagility-riskagility-pc.html), InsuranceERM
14. [SOA — "Actuarial Systems Evolution" (The Actuary Magazine; describes PC revolution liberating actuaries from shared mainframe constraint)](https://www.theactuarymagazine.org/actuarial-systems-evolution/), Society of Actuaries / The Actuary Magazine
15. [SOA Compact Newsletter — "Reminiscences of a Prophet Operator" (October 2013; practitioner description of Prophet's capabilities vs. Excel)](http://web.archive.org/web/20260215221459/https://www.soa.org/news-and-publications/newsletters/compact/2013/october/com-2013-iss49/reminiscences-of-a-prophet-operator/), Society of Actuaries
16. [Finalyse — "Actuarial Modelling Using FIS Prophet" (Prophet architecture, 10,000+ users, 70 countries)](https://www.finalyse.com/blog/insurance/actuarial-modelling-using-fisr-prophet), Finalyse
17. [Lemonade Insurance — founded 2015 by Shai Wininger and Daniel Schreiber; launched NY 2016 as AI-first insurer](https://insurnest.com/blog/lemonade-insurance-case-study/), Insurnest / Lemonade
18. [hyperexponential — "Will AI Take Over Actuary Jobs?" (data-manipulation time drops from 70% to 30% of total actuarial work with ML platforms, 2025)](https://www.hyperexponential.com/blog/will-ai-take-over-actuary-jobs), hyperexponential
19. [Akur8 — Acquires Arius from Milliman for reserving (September 2024): "quarterly file preparation up to 10× faster"](https://www.akur8.com/news/akur8-expands-core-capabilities-with-strategic-acquisition-of-arius-reserving-solution), Akur8
20. [hyperexponential — hx Renew: AI-native pricing platform serving carriers processing $45B+ GWP annually (2025)](https://www.hyperexponential.com/blog/hx-renew-for-actuaries-faster-smarter-insurance-pricing), hyperexponential
21. [SOA — "Navigating the AI Transformation in Actuarial Science" (January 2026; governance as core human moat)](https://www.soa.org/communities/career-development/cd-newsletter-articles/2026/january/2026-01-cd-arocha/), Society of Actuaries
22. [CAS — "Using Artificial Intelligence in Actuarial Tools Spurs CAS Research" (AI Fast Track Program, ML reduces stochastic reserving time by 50%, 2025)](https://www.casact.org/article/using-artificial-intelligence-actuarial-tools-spurs-cas-research), Casualty Actuarial Society
23. [IFRS Foundation — IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts (effective 1 January 2023)](https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/list-of-standards/ifrs-17-insurance-contracts/), IFRS Foundation

### Forecasts and exposure studies

24. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 15-2011 Actuaries (2025: 31.2 thousand; 2035: 34.1 thousand; +9.2%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=15-2011&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
25. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 15-2011 Actuaries: probability 0.21, rank 209 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
26. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 15-2011.00, human-rated β 0.537)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

27. [Wikipedia — The Equitable Life Assurance Society (founding 1762, Mores's first use of 'actuary')](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Equitable_Life_Assurance_Society), Wikipedia
28. [IFoA — "IFoA Celebrates Its 175th Anniversary" (media release, July 2023; confirms 8 July 1848 founding date)](https://actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media-releases/media-releases-and-statements/2023/jul/7-jul-23-ifoa-celebrates-its-175th-anniversary/), Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
29. [CAS Fact Sheet — Casualty Actuarial Society founding in 1914](https://www.casact.org/news/cas-fact-sheet), Casualty Actuarial Society
30. [Huggins Actuarial Services — Historical Background of Actuaries (SOA founding and membership growth table)](http://web.archive.org/web/20260414064326/https://hugginsactuarial.com/historical-background-of-actuaries/), Huggins Actuarial Services
31. [Cambridge Core — "AIDS and the Actuary" (Journal of the Staple Inn Actuarial Society, 1993; documents Institute Working Party 1987-88 and SOA Task Force 1988)](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-the-staple-inn-actuarial-society/article/abs/aids-and-the-actuary/CEAF62124FBB6D31AE2CDA28FDD68C0F), Journal of the Staple Inn Actuarial Society / Cambridge Core
32. [IMF Working Paper WP/09/151 — "How the Financial Crisis Affects Pensions and Insurance and Why the Impacts Differ" (Antolin & Stewart, 2009)](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2009/wp09151.pdf), International Monetary Fund
33. [CAS Actuarial Review — "Actuaries Play a Pivotal Role in IFRS 17 Adoption" (liability changes exceeding 15% for 70%+ of insurers; expanded actuarial narrative requirements)](https://ar.casact.org/actuaries-play-a-pivotal-role-in-ifrs-17-adoption/), Casualty Actuarial Society / Actuarial Review

### Predecessors & successors

34. [SOA History — actuarial profession drew from mathematics graduates; Actuarial Society of America (1889) drew its founding 38 members from insurance company mathematicians](https://www.soa.org/about/soa-history/), Society of Actuaries
35. [hyperexponential — "Will AI Take Over Actuary Jobs?" (data scientists entering actuarial pricing teams from 2015 as ML pricing emerged)](https://www.hyperexponential.com/blog/will-ai-take-over-actuary-jobs), hyperexponential

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-24
- [O\*NET 30.3 — Actuaries (15-2011.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/15-2011.00), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Actuaries (2024–2034, +22% projected growth, ~2,400 annual openings)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/math/actuaries.htm), accessed 2026-05-24
- [SOA — Navigating the AI Transformation in Actuarial Science (January 2026)](https://www.soa.org/communities/career-development/cd-newsletter-articles/2026/january/2026-01-cd-arocha/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Actuary.org — The AI Effect: A Developing Story for Actuarial Careers (2025)](https://actuary.org/article/the-ai-effect-a-developing-story-for-actuarial-careers/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [hyperexponential — Will AI Take Over Actuary Jobs? (2025)](https://www.hyperexponential.com/blog/will-ai-take-over-actuary-jobs), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Akur8 — Acquires Arius (Milliman reserving) and Slope Software (life modeling) to build end-to-end actuarial platform (2024–2026)](https://www.akur8.com/news/akur8-expands-core-capabilities-with-strategic-acquisition-of-arius-reserving-solution), accessed 2026-05-24
- [McKinsey Global Institute — The Economic Potential of Generative AI (2023)](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/tech-and-ai/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Deloitte — 2025 Insurance Industry Outlook: 82% of carriers adopt AI for labor-shortage relief, not headcount reduction](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/financial-services/financial-services-industry-outlooks/insurance-industry-outlook.html), accessed 2026-05-24
- [SOA — How Does AI Change the Technical Skill Requirements for Actuaries? Python now baseline in major insurer postings (2025)](https://www.soa.org/research/opportunities/2025/how-does-ai-change-tech-skill/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [hyperexponential — AI for Actuaries: Three Key Use Cases including Python + Copilot for actuarial scripting (2025)](https://www.hyperexponential.com/blog/ai-for-actuaries-three-key-use-cases), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Akur8 — End-to-End Actuarial Pricing Platform: transparent ML pricing for insurance actuaries](https://www.akur8.com/pricing), accessed 2026-05-24
- [hyperexponential — hx Renew for actuaries: Faster, smarter insurance pricing (2025)](https://www.hyperexponential.com/blog/hx-renew-for-actuaries-faster-smarter-insurance-pricing), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Akur8 acquires Arius from Milliman — quarterly reserving prep up to 10× faster (2024)](https://www.insurtechinsights.com/akur8-acquires-arius-to-enhance-reserving-solutions-for-insurance-industry/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [CAS AI Fast Track Program — ML reduces stochastic reserving analysis time by 50% (2025)](https://www.casact.org/article/using-artificial-intelligence-actuarial-tools-spurs-cas-research), accessed 2026-05-24

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.