# Mechanical Engineers

US SOC code 17-2141. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/17-2141

Also called: Design engineer, Product development engineer, Mechanical design engineer, Product engineer, Systems engineer.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **296,810** US mechanical engineers, with median pay of **$104,110** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **306,990**, in May 2019, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.asmefoundation.org/history/) of **7,000** from 1880, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for mechanical engineers: Integrated FEA/CFD simulation and PLM, 2000 to 2020.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 11.2% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=17-2141&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **37.2%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Mechanical Engineers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1847
- Latest US employment: 296,810 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $104,110 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [11]
- Outlook: +11.2% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [27]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 21301)
  - Employment, 2020: 54,950. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [8]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 21301 Mechanical engineers, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$96,000. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [15]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 21301 Mechanical engineers, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.

### All 29 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1880 | 7,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., ASME Foundation [1] |
| 1930 | 70,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1900 [2] |
| 1950 | 195,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1900 [2] |
| 1970 | 215,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Monthly Labor Review [3] |
| 1982 | n/a | $32,300 | BLS historical bulletin 1982 [9] |
| 2000 | 207,300 | $58,710 | BLS OEWS 2000 [4] |
| 2003 | 207,810 | $63,910 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 217,010 | $66,320 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 220,750 | $67,590 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 217,500 | $69,850 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 222,330 | $72,300 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 233,610 | $74,920 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 232,660 | $77,020 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 234,400 | $78,160 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 238,260 | $79,230 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 252,540 | $80,580 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 258,630 | $82,100 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 270,700 | $83,060 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 278,340 | $83,590 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 285,790 | $84,190 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 291,290 | $85,880 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 303,440 | $87,370 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 306,990 | $88,430 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 293,960 | $90,160 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 278,240 | $95,300 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 277,560 | $96,310 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 281,290 | $99,510 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 286,760 | $102,320 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 296,810 | $104,110 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (96)

### Employment series

1. [ASME Foundation -- History of ASME (founding context, 1880)](https://www.asmefoundation.org/history/), American Society of Mechanical Engineers Foundation
2. [US Census Bureau -- "Occupational Trends in the United States 1900 to 1950" (Census Bureau 1958 report)](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/1958/demographics/occupational-trends-1958.pdf), US Census Bureau
3. [BLS Monthly Labor Review -- "Occupational changes during the 20th century" (March 2006, professional workers trend data)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/article/occupational-changes-during-the-20th-century.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
6. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
8. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Wage series

9. [BLS -- "Occupational salary levels for white-collar workers, 1982" (Monthly Labor Review, October 1982)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1982/10/rpt2full.pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
12. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
13. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
14. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
15. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Tool eras

16. [INCOSE Chesapeake Chapter -- "The Slide Rule: A Pathway to Powers" (history of the engineer's slide rule)](https://www.incose-cc.org/blog/the-slide-rulea-pathway-to-powers), INCOSE Chesapeake Chapter
17. [Smithsonian Institution -- Slide Rules collection (National Museum of American History)](https://www.si.edu/spotlight/slide-rules), Smithsonian Institution
18. [Scan2CAD -- "A Brief History of AutoCAD" (AutoCAD 1982 launch and impact on mechanical engineering)](https://www.scan2cad.com/blog/tips/autocad-brief-history/), Scan2CAD
19. [Thomas Net -- "The History and Future of CAD/CAM Technology" (pre-AutoCAD drafting and 1982 shift)](https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/the-history-and-future-of-cad-cam-technology/), ThomasNet
20. [Novedge Design Software History -- "Evolution of PTC Creo: From Pro/ENGINEER's Parametric Pioneering to Modern CAD" (Pro/ENGINEER 1988 launch)](https://novedge.com/blogs/design-news/design-software-history-evolution-of-ptc-creo-from-pro-engineers-parametric-pioneering-to-modern-cad-innovation), Novedge
21. [SolidWorks Wikipedia -- History: SolidWorks 95 (November 1995 release, 3D parametric modeling democratized)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SolidWorks), Wikipedia
22. [CoLab Software -- "Best AI Tools and Agents for Mechanical Engineers" (2026, history of simulation integration)](https://www.colabsoftware.com/ai-tools-for-mechanical-engineers-guide), CoLab Software
23. [Ansys -- SimAI product page (Ansys simulation platform history)](https://www.ansys.com/products/ai/simai), Ansys
24. [Autodesk -- Generative Design for Manufacturing (Fusion Generative Design, 2018 introduction)](https://www.autodesk.com/solutions/generative-design/manufacturing), Autodesk
25. [Synopsys -- Ansys 2026 R1: GeomAI and restructured SimAI portfolio (March 2026)](https://news.synopsys.com/2026-03-11-Synopsys-Launches-Ansys-2026-R1-to-Re-Engineer-Engineering-with-Joint-Solutions-and-AI-Powered-Products), Synopsys / Ansys
26. [Siemens -- NX Copilot launch Summer 2025 and more than 40 percent time savings for early adopters](https://news.siemens.com/en-us/siemens-designcenter-nx-summer-2025/), Siemens

### Forecasts and exposure studies

27. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 17-2141 Mechanical engineers (2025: 298.5 thousand; 2035: 332.0 thousand; +11.2%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=17-2141&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
28. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 17-2141.00, human-rated β 0.372)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

29. [Wikipedia -- Institution of Mechanical Engineers (founding 1847)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institution_of_Mechanical_Engineers), Wikipedia
30. [Wikipedia -- History of mechanical engineering (first US ME degree, University of Minnesota 1878)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_mechanical_engineering), Wikipedia
31. [American Society of Mechanical Engineers Foundation -- History of ASME](https://www.asmefoundation.org/history/), American Society of Mechanical Engineers Foundation
32. [ASME -- Engineering History (ASME and World War II industrial engineering)](https://www.asme.org/about-asme/engineering-history), American Society of Mechanical Engineers
33. [Wikipedia -- Sputnik crisis (impact on US science and engineering education)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_crisis), Wikipedia
34. [Wikipedia -- HP-35 (scientific calculator, January 1972 launch)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HP-35), Wikipedia
35. [Scan2CAD -- "A Brief History of AutoCAD" (December 1982 launch and industry impact)](https://www.scan2cad.com/blog/tips/autocad-brief-history/), Scan2CAD
36. [Novedge Design Software History -- "Evolution of PTC Creo: From Pro/ENGINEER's Parametric Pioneering to Modern CAD" (1988 launch and industry impact)](https://novedge.com/blogs/design-news/design-software-history-evolution-of-ptc-creo-from-pro-engineers-parametric-pioneering-to-modern-cad-innovation), Novedge
37. [Wikipedia -- SolidWorks (history: founded 1993, SolidWorks 95 released November 1995)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SolidWorks), Wikipedia
38. [Synopsys -- Sumitomo Riko accelerates simulation more than 10x with Ansys AI (October 2025)](https://news.synopsys.com/2025-10-08-Sumitomo-Riko-Leverages-Ansys-AI-Technology-to-Accelerate-Simulation-Over-10x-for-Automotive-Component-Design-and-Manufacturing), Synopsys / Ansys

### Predecessors & successors

39. [Wikipedia -- History of mechanical engineering (19th-century transition from craftsman to professional engineer)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_mechanical_engineering), Wikipedia
40. [American Society of Mechanical Engineers -- Engineering History (ASME founding context)](https://www.asme.org/about-asme/engineering-history), American Society of Mechanical Engineers
41. [ASME Foundation -- History of ASME (founding members included leading machinists-turned-engineers)](https://www.asmefoundation.org/history/), American Society of Mechanical Engineers Foundation
42. [ThomasNet -- "The History and Future of CAD/CAM Technology" (draftsperson-to-engineer transition during CAD adoption)](https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/the-history-and-future-of-cad-cam-technology/), ThomasNet

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Mechanical Engineers (17-2141.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/17-2141.00), accessed 2026-05-23
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Mechanical Engineers (2024–2034)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/mechanical-engineers.htm), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Synopsys — Ansys 2026 R1: GeomAI and restructured SimAI portfolio (March 2026)](https://news.synopsys.com/2026-03-11-Synopsys-Launches-Ansys-2026-R1-to-Re-Engineer-Engineering-with-Joint-Solutions-and-AI-Powered-Products), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Siemens — NX Copilot launch (Summer 2025) and \>40% time savings for early adopters](https://news.siemens.com/en-us/siemens-designcenter-nx-summer-2025/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Neural Concept — Will AI Replace Engineers? (2025)](https://www.neuralconcept.com/post/will-ai-replace-engineers), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Research.com — AI, Automation and the Future of Mechanical Engineering Careers (2026)](https://research.com/advice/ai-automation-and-the-future-of-mechanical-engineering-degree-careers), accessed 2026-05-23
- [PTC — Creo 12 launch with AI-driven generative design and thermal physics (June 2025)](https://www.ptc.com/en/news/2025/ptc-launches-creo-12), accessed 2026-05-23
- [CoLab Software — Best AI Tools and Agents for Mechanical Engineers (2026)](https://www.colabsoftware.com/ai-tools-for-mechanical-engineers-guide), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Synopsys — Sumitomo Riko accelerates simulation 10x with Ansys AI (Oct 2025)](https://news.synopsys.com/2025-10-08-Sumitomo-Riko-Leverages-Ansys-AI-Technology-to-Accelerate-Simulation-Over-10x-for-Automotive-Component-Design-and-Manufacturing), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Autodesk Fusion — Generative Design for Manufacturing (multi-method, weight/cost ranking)](https://www.autodesk.com/solutions/generative-design/manufacturing), accessed 2026-05-23

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.