# Mechanical Drafters

US SOC code 17-3013. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/17-3013

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **39,960** US mechanical drafters, with median pay of **$71,550** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **77,070**, in May 2008. The earliest figure here is [a Census (IPUMS) count](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml) of **230,000** from 1950, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for mechanical drafters: Parametric 3D solid modeling, 1995 to 2010.

Figures: Official statistic (latest count and pay, highest count); Researched context (earliest figure).

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 6% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=17-3013&ioType=o) (Official statistic).

### AI exposure studies

- **46.6%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) (Official statistic)
- **0.68** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) (Official statistic)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.68. BLS counted **63,180** of these jobs in May 2013 and **39,960** in May 2025 (-37%, a change derived by Future History). Figures: Official statistic.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Mechanical Drafters employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1810
- Latest US employment: 39,960 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [2]
- Latest US median pay: $71,550 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Outlook: -6% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [15]

### All 25 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1950 | 230,000 | n/a | Census (IPUMS) 1950 [1] |
| 1960 | n/a | $6,200 (average) | BLS historical bulletin [3] |
| 2003 | 74,010 | $41,520 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [2] |
| 2004 | 76,610 | $43,000 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [2] |
| 2005 | 74,650 | $43,350 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [2] |
| 2006 | 72,950 | $43,700 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [2] |
| 2007 | 74,260 | $44,740 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [2] |
| 2008 | 77,070 | $46,640 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [2] |
| 2009 | 71,890 | $47,790 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [2] |
| 2010 | 64,440 | $48,810 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [2] |
| 2011 | 64,090 | $49,200 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [2] |
| 2012 | 63,220 | $50,360 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [2] |
| 2013 | 63,180 | $51,520 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [2] |
| 2014 | 64,070 | $52,200 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [2] |
| 2015 | 65,250 | $53,520 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [2] |
| 2016 | 63,630 | $54,480 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [2] |
| 2017 | 58,190 | $55,130 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [2] |
| 2018 | 56,170 | $55,920 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [2] |
| 2019 | 55,210 | $57,060 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [2] |
| 2020 | 51,620 | $58,270 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [2] |
| 2021 | 47,760 | $60,200 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [2] |
| 2022 | 47,540 | $61,310 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [2] |
| 2023 | 44,850 | $64,060 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [2] |
| 2024 | 39,900 | $68,510 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [2] |
| 2025 | 39,960 | $71,550 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [2] |

## Sources (70)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA — Occupation and Industry Codes and Documentation (1950 Census occupational classification for drafters)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

3. [BLS, National Survey of Professional, Administrative, Technical, and Clerical Pay, Winter 1959-60 (Bulletin No. 1286) — draftsmen salaries](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/national-survey-professional-administrative-technical-clerical-pay-4570/national-survey-professional-administrative-technical-clerical-pay-winter-1959-60-495938), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

5. [Wikipedia — Gaspard Monge (descriptive geometry, published from 1795 lectures, foundational to mechanical drawing)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaspard_Monge), Wikipedia
6. [HistoryOfInformation.com — "Sir John Herschel Invents Cyanotypes, the Basis for Blueprints" (1842)](https://historyofinformation.com/detail.php?id=1257), History of Information
7. [ASTcad.com.au — "History of Engineering Drawing: From Blueprint to CAD" (drawing tools, blueprint and diazo reproduction)](https://astcad.com.au/history-of-engineering-drawing/), ASTcad
8. [EBSCO Research — "Blueprint" (Visual Arts Research Starter: cyanotype and diazo processes)](https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/visual-arts/blueprint), EBSCO Research
9. [Computer History Museum — "The Remarkable Ivan Sutherland" (Sketchpad 1963, interactive graphics history)](https://computerhistory.org/blog/the-remarkable-ivan-sutherland/), Computer History Museum
10. [Engineering.com — "The History of CAD Revolutions, Part 3: SolidWorks" (CATIA, IGDS, CAD history overview)](https://www.engineering.com/the-history-of-cad-revolutions-part-3-solidworks/), Engineering.com
11. [Scan2CAD — "How CAD Has Evolved Since 1982: Past, Present and Future" (AutoCAD 1982 launch, PC World award, workforce impact)](https://www.scan2cad.com/blog/cad/cad-evolved-since-1982/), Scan2CAD
12. [IPUMS USA — 1980 Occupation Codes (1980 Census: all-drafters employment peak, baseline for CAD displacement measurement)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/97occup.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
13. [Scan2CAD — "A Brief History of SolidWorks" (1995 launch, $4,000 price point, parametric modeling history)](https://www.scan2cad.com/blog/cad/solidworks-history/), Scan2CAD
14. [O\*NET 17-3013.00 — current CAD software requirements (AutoCAD, SolidWorks, Autodesk Inventor as primary tools, 2024)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/17-3013.00), O\*NET / BLS

### Forecasts and exposure studies

15. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 17-3013 Mechanical drafters (2025: 42.1 thousand; 2035: 39.6 thousand; -6.0%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=17-3013&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
16. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 17-3013 Mechanical Drafters: probability 0.68, rank 378 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
17. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 17-3013.00, human-rated β 0.466)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

18. [Wikipedia — Gaspard Monge (descriptive geometry, Ecole Polytechnique, 1795)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaspard_Monge), Wikipedia
19. [HistoryOfInformation.com — "Sir John Herschel Invents Cyanotypes, the Basis for Blueprints" (1842)](https://historyofinformation.com/detail.php?id=1257), History of Information
20. [Computer History Museum — "The Remarkable Ivan Sutherland" (Sketchpad, 1963)](https://computerhistory.org/blog/the-remarkable-ivan-sutherland/), Computer History Museum
21. [Scan2CAD — "How CAD Has Evolved Since 1982" (AutoCAD 1982, Comdex launch, workforce transition)](https://www.scan2cad.com/blog/cad/cad-evolved-since-1982/), Scan2CAD
22. [Scan2CAD — "A Brief History of SolidWorks" (1995 launch, Jon Hirschtick, Windows-based 3D CAD at $4,000)](https://www.scan2cad.com/blog/cad/solidworks-history/), Scan2CAD
23. [Frey and Osborne (2013) — "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?" (Oxford Martin School)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School

### Predecessors & successors

24. [ASTcad.com.au — History of Engineering Drawing (emergence of separate drawing-room workforce from engineer-draftsman generalist)](https://astcad.com.au/history-of-engineering-drawing/), ASTcad

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-21
- [O\*NET 30.3 — US Department of Labor](https://www.onetcenter.org/database.html), accessed 2026-05-21

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.