# Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists

US SOC code 19-1042. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/19-1042

Also called: Medical scientist, Research scientist biology, Research scientist pharma, Senior scientist drug discovery, Principal scientist.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **172,340** US medical scientists (except epidemiologists), with median pay of **$103,410** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://history.nih.gov/display/history/A+Short+History+of+the+National+Institutes+of+Health) of **1,500** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for medical scientists: AlphaFold v1→v2→v3, 2018 to 2024.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 12.6% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=19-1042&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **56.8%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.0045** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.0045. BLS counted **104,280** of these jobs in May 2013 and **172,340** in May 2025. The count moved sharply in one step, May 2020 to May 2021, when BLS changed how it estimates these counts, so no change is derived here.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1898
- Latest US employment: 172,340 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $103,410 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [9]
- Outlook: +12.6% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [24]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 1,500 (estimate) | n/a | Est., NIH [1] |
| 1940 | 12,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [2] |
| 1965 | 60,000 (estimate) | $9,500 (estimate) | Est., NIH History (employment) [3]; Est., NSF (pay) [7] |
| 1990 | 85,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., NHGRI [4] |
| 2000 | 35,570 | $57,810 | BLS OEWS 2000 [5] |
| 2003 | 60,830 | $59,210 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 66,450 | $61,320 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 73,670 | $61,730 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 78,210 | $61,680 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 87,440 | $64,200 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 99,750 | $72,590 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 101,760 | $74,590 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 93,560 | $76,700 | BLS OEWS May 2010 (employment) [6]; BLS OEWS 2010 (pay) [10] |
| 2011 | 95,220 | $76,130 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 95,420 | $76,980 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 104,280 | $79,840 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 100,740 | $79,930 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 104,440 | $82,240 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 108,870 | $80,530 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 111,690 | $82,090 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 120,320 | $84,810 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 127,180 | $88,790 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 126,110 | $91,510 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 108,550 | $95,310 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 110,550 | $99,930 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 136,620 | $100,890 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 156,300 | $100,590 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 172,340 | $103,410 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (93)

### Employment series

1. [NIH — "A Short History of the National Institutes of Health" (Hygienic Laboratory founding 1887, Ransdell Act 1930, early research grant history)](https://history.nih.gov/display/history/A+Short+History+of+the+National+Institutes+of+Health), National Institutes of Health
2. [Wikipedia — National Institutes of Health (Ransdell Act 1930 converted Hygienic Laboratory to NIH; early extramural grant history)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institutes_of_Health), Wikipedia
3. [NIH History — "Budget" (NIH appropriations history showing 1955-1970 tenfold growth, Sputnik-era expansion context)](https://officeofbudget.od.nih.gov/history.html), NIH Office of Budget
4. [NHGRI — "The Human Genome Project" (October 1990 launch, research workforce context)](https://www.genome.gov/human-genome-project), National Human Genome Research Institute
5. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

7. [NSF — Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System historical context; BLS CPI-U inflation adjustment to 2024 dollars for context (approximately $94,000 real)](https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf24318/), National Science Foundation
8. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
9. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
10. [BLS OOH — Medical Scientists (historical median annual wage circa 2010)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/medical-scientists.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

12. [NIH History — "A Short History of the National Institutes of Health" (Hygienic Laboratory, Welch, early American medical research infrastructure)](https://history.nih.gov/display/history/A+Short+History+of+the+National+Institutes+of+Health), National Institutes of Health
13. [Nobel Prize — Robert Koch Biography (Koch's postulates, bacterial culture method, compound microscope as the tool of medical bacteriology)](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/1905/koch/biographical/), Nobel Prize Committee
14. [Wikipedia — Ultracentrifuge (Svedberg, analytical ultracentrifuge, macromolecule separation history)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultracentrifuge), Wikipedia
15. [Nobel Prize — James Watson, Francis Crick, Maurice Wilkins (1962 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for DNA structure — X-ray crystallography + electron microscopy enabling discovery)](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/1962/summary/), Nobel Prize Committee
16. [Nature — Watson and Crick, "A Structure for Deoxyribose Nucleic Acid" (April 25, 1953)](https://www.nature.com/articles/171737a0?error=cookies_not_supported&code=177662ae-f3a4-40eb-9a79-7bf40eeaa317), Nature
17. [Wikipedia — Recombinant DNA (Boyer-Cohen 1973 experiment; first licensed recombinant drug was human insulin developed by Genentech, approved 1982)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recombinant_DNA), Wikipedia
18. [Nobel Prize — Kary Mullis, 1993 Nobel Prize in Chemistry (PCR discovery, 1983)](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/1993/mullis/facts/), Nobel Prize Committee
19. [NHGRI — "The Human Genome Project" (October 1990 launch, 2003 completion, research workforce and cost context)](https://www.genome.gov/human-genome-project), National Human Genome Research Institute
20. [NHGRI — "DNA Sequencing Costs: Data" (Sanger to next-gen, cost-per-genome trajectory from $300M to sub-$1,000)](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost), National Human Genome Research Institute
21. [DeepMind — "AlphaFold" (v1 CASP13 2018, v2 CASP14 2020, AlphaFold 3 May 2024, Nobel Prize October 2024, 200M protein structures)](https://deepmind.google/science/alphafold/), Google DeepMind
22. [Nobel Prize — Chemistry 2024 (David Baker, Demis Hassabis, John Jumper — protein structure prediction and design)](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2024/press-release/), Nobel Prize Committee
23. [Nobel Prize — Medicine 2023 (Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman — nucleoside base modifications enabling mRNA vaccines; 2005 seminal finding, December 2020 EUA)](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2023/press-release/), Nobel Prize Committee

### Forecasts and exposure studies

24. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 19-1042 Medical scientists, except epidemiologists (2025: 181.0 thousand; 2035: 203.7 thousand; +12.6%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=19-1042&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
25. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 19-1042 Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists: probability 0.0045, rank 21 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
26. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 19-1042.00, human-rated β 0.568)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

27. [NIH History — "A Short History of the National Institutes of Health" (Hygienic Laboratory early years)](https://history.nih.gov/display/history/A+Short+History+of+the+National+Institutes+of+Health), National Institutes of Health
28. [Wikipedia — National Institutes of Health (Ransdell Act 1930 converted Hygienic Laboratory to NIH; first external research grants)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institutes_of_Health), Wikipedia
29. [Journal of Experimental Medicine — Avery, MacLeod, McCarty (1944) "Studies on the Chemical Nature of the Substance Inducing Transformation in Pneumococcal Types"](https://rupress.org/jem/article/79/2/137/2977/Studies-on-the-Chemical-Nature-of-the-Substance), Journal of Experimental Medicine / Rockefeller University Press
30. [Nature — Watson and Crick, "A Structure for Deoxyribose Nucleic Acid" (April 25, 1953)](https://www.nature.com/articles/171737a0?error=cookies_not_supported&code=177662ae-f3a4-40eb-9a79-7bf40eeaa317), Nature
31. [Wikipedia — Recombinant DNA (Cohen-Boyer 1973 experiment; Genentech founded 1976; recombinant insulin FDA approval 1982)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recombinant_DNA), Wikipedia
32. [NHGRI — "The Human Genome Project" (October 1990 launch, international scope, cost and timeline)](https://www.genome.gov/human-genome-project), National Human Genome Research Institute
33. [Nobel Prize — Medicine 2023 (Karikó and Weissman, nucleoside base modifications, 2005 discovery, December 2020 EUA timeline)](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2023/press-release/), Nobel Prize Committee
34. [Nobel Prize — Chemistry 2024 (Hassabis, Jumper, Baker — protein structure prediction and design; AlphaFold statistics)](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2024/press-release/), Nobel Prize Committee

### Predecessors & successors

35. [NIH History — "A Short History of the National Institutes of Health" (early NIH researchers often trained as physicians who transitioned to laboratory investigation)](https://history.nih.gov/display/history/A+Short+History+of+the+National+Institutes+of+Health), National Institutes of Health
36. [Wikipedia — Recombinant DNA (Boyer-Cohen 1973; Genentech founded 1976; recombinant insulin first licensed recombinant drug 1982; biotechnology industry creation of research scientist roles)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recombinant_DNA), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists (19-1042.00): tasks, work activities, employment data](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/19-1042.00), accessed 2026-05-23
- [BLS OOH — Medical Scientists: ~135,000 employed 2024; +11% growth 2024-2034; median $100,890; 13,600 annual openings](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/medical-scientists.htm), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Nature (May 2024) — AlphaFold 3: Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions; DeepMind; demonstrates atomic-level accuracy for protein-ligand-DNA-RNA co-complexes](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07487-w?error=cookies_not_supported&code=2b360610-e108-4e12-afbe-e1c471dacd39), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Isomorphic Labs: Isomorphic Labs kicks off 2024 with two pharmaceutical collaborations (January 2024): multi-target small-molecule drug design collaborations with Eli Lilly and Novartis, potentially worth nearly $3 billion, with $45 million and $37.5 million upfront](https://www.isomorphiclabs.com/articles/isomorphic-labs-kicks-off-2024-with-two-pharmaceutical-collaborations), accessed 2026-10-08
- [StockTitan (Recursion press release via GlobeNewswire, Nov 20, 2024): Recursion completed its business combination with Exscientia, integrating Exscientia's chemical design methods with Recursion's 60+ petabytes of proprietary data; more than 10 clinical and preclinical programs](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/RXRX/recursion-and-exscientia-two-leaders-in-the-ai-drug-discovery-space-445ubwv6awi0.html), accessed 2026-10-08
- [NVIDIA GTC 2025 — BioNeMo platform: 40+ pharma/biotech deployments; ESMFold, OpenFold, MolMIM, DiffDock hosted models; AI drug discovery infrastructure](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/industries/healthcare-life-sciences/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [BenchSci 2025 impact report — 50+ top pharma/biotech clients; 60-80% reduction in reagent-selection time; NLP-extracted 10M+ experimental data points](https://www.benchsci.com/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Cradle: Cradle raises $73M Series B to Put AI-Powered Protein Engineering in Every Lab (company blog, Nov 2024): $73 million Series B led by IVP; its generative AI platform proposes protein sequences, and customers report R&D speed-ups of 1.2x to 12x and cost reductions of up to 90 percent](https://www.cradle.bio/blog/series-b), accessed 2026-10-08
- [NIH NOT-OD-23-149 (March 2023, updated Nov 2024) — AI use disclosure policy for grant applications; reviewers prohibited from using AI to evaluate applications](https://grants.nih.gov/grants/guide/notice-files/NOT-OD-23-149.html), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science): occupational LLM exposure framework](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-23
- [AAMC FACTS 2025 — physician-scientist pipeline: ~1,500 new MD/PhD researchers annually; industry PhD hiring +12% 2023-2025; demand exceeds supply](https://www.aamc.org/data-reports/workforce/data/aamc-physician-scientist-workforce-report), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Atomwise.com 2025 — AtomNet deep convolutional neural network: 10B+ virtual compounds screened; AbbVie, Lilly, Pfizer, 40+ academic institution partnerships; Nature Drug Discovery 2025 coverage](https://numerionlabs.ai/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Schrödinger AI — FEP+ free energy perturbation for binding and solubility predictions; generative ML for molecule design; in silico screening platform for pharmaceutical R&D](https://www.schrodinger.com/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Tempus AI 2025 investor presentation — TIME engine: 30,000+ oncology patients matched to active clinical trials; multimodal genomic + clinical data network; NASDAQ IPO June 2024](https://www.tempus.com/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Fierce Healthcare: Tempus AI raises $410M in IPO, shares jump 15% in Nasdaq debut (June 2024): the IPO valued Tempus at an implied $6.1 billion; its platform links data from more than 2,000 healthcare institutions and is used by more than 7,000 physicians](https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/health-tech/tempus-ai-shares-jump-15-stock-market-debut-ipo-priced-over-6b-valuation), accessed 2026-10-08

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.