# Physicists

US SOC code 19-2012. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/19-2012

Also called: Research physicist, Experimental physicist, Theoretical physicist, Computational physicist, Applied physicist.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **20,430** US physicists, with median pay of **$172,250** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **21,340**, in May 2024, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physicist) of **400** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for physicists: Deep learning, GPU acceleration, and ML-augmented data pipelines, 2015 to 2022. ML competence became a differentiating skill for physics job applicants from approximately 2017 onward.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 7.2% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=19-2012&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **63.6%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **36%** of work tasks in life, physical, and social science occupations, this job's group, are exposed to automation by AI. Not a forecast of job losses. [Goldman Sachs, 2023](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

## Physicists employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1840
- Latest US employment: 20,430 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $172,250 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [11]
- Outlook: +7.2% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [30]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 21100)
  - Employment, 2020: 2,620. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [8]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 21100 Physicists and astronomers, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$108,000. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [14]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 21100 Physicists and astronomers, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.

### All 29 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 400 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Physicist [1] |
| 1940 | 3,900 (estimate) | n/a | Est., FRASER / BLS Bulletin No. 1144 [2] |
| 1953 | 13,000 (estimate) | $6,800 | Est., FRASER / BLS Bulletin No. 1144 [2] |
| 1968 | 47,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRASER [3] |
| 1971 | 38,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Physics Today [4] |
| 2000 | 8,990 | $83,310 | BLS OEWS 2000 [5] |
| 2003 | 12,390 | $85,630 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 14,150 | $87,450 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 15,160 | $89,810 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 15,420 | $94,240 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 13,980 | $96,850 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 14,810 | $102,890 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 13,630 | $106,390 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 16,860 | $106,370 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 16,220 | $106,360 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 17,820 | $106,840 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 17,340 | $110,110 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 16,790 | $109,600 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 15,650 | $111,580 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 16,680 | $115,870 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 16,710 | $118,830 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 17,620 | $120,950 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 16,730 | $122,850 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 16,160 | $129,850 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 20,020 | $152,430 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 18,840 | $142,850 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 18,350 | $155,680 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 21,340 | $166,290 | BLS OEWS May 2024 (employment) [6]; BLS OEWS May 2024 (pay) [12] |
| 2025 | 20,430 | $172,250 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (103)

### Employment series

1. [Physicist -- Wikipedia: professionalization, APS founding, and early workforce estimates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physicist), Wikipedia
2. [FRASER / BLS Bulletin No. 1144 -- Employment Outlook for Physicists (1953): pre-WWII workforce baseline described as approximately 4,000](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/employment-outlook-physicists-4462/fulltext), Federal Reserve Archival System (FRASER) / Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 1968-69 edition (Bulletin No. 1550) -- Physicists section; Physics Today AIP employment reporting 1962-1971](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/occupational-outlook-handbook-3964/occupational-outlook-handbook-1968-69-edition-498298/content/fulltext/bls_1550_1968_2), Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRASER
4. [Physics Today -- "Physics Today ads track employment boom and bust": AIP Placement Service 1971 statistics (53 jobs, 1,053 applicants)](https://physicstoday.aip.org/news/physics-today-ads-track-employment-boom-and-bust), Physics Today / AIP Publishing
5. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
8. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Wage series

9. [FRASER / BLS Bulletin No. 1144 -- Employment Outlook for Physicists (1953): salary context for industrial physics researchers](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/employment-outlook-physicists-4462/fulltext), Federal Reserve Archival System (FRASER) / Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
12. [BLS OOH / OEWS May 2024 -- Physicists and Astronomers: median annual wage $166,290](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/physicists-and-astronomers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
13. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
14. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Tool eras

15. [Encyclopedia.com -- The Transformation of the Physical Sciences into Professions During the Nineteenth Century: instruments, universities, and journals](https://www.encyclopedia.com/science/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/transformation-physical-sciences-professions-during-nineteenth-century), Encyclopedia.com
16. [Physicist -- Wikipedia: history section, 19th-century professionalization and instrumentation era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physicist), Wikipedia
17. [Wikipedia -- Manhattan Project: scale, employment (~130,000 people), and scientific leadership structure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project), Wikipedia
18. [History of physics -- Wikipedia: X-ray discovery, cloud chamber, cyclotron development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_physics), Wikipedia
19. [Physics Today -- "Physics Today ads track employment boom and bust": AIP Placement Service data 1962-1971; boom and bust dynamics](https://physicstoday.aip.org/news/physics-today-ads-track-employment-boom-and-bust), Physics Today / AIP Publishing
20. [FRASER / BLS Bulletin No. 1144 -- Employment Outlook for Physicists (1953): growth trajectory and employer sectors](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/employment-outlook-physicists-4462/fulltext), FRASER / Bureau of Labor Statistics
21. [AIP Statistical Research -- historical context for physics workforce and tool adoption through 1990s](https://www.aip.org/statistics), American Institute of Physics
22. [APS -- Physics by the numbers: career statistics and workforce data for physicists](https://www.aps.org/careers/statistics/index.cfm), American Physical Society
23. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook -- Physicists and Astronomers: historical employment and sector breakdown](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/physicists-and-astronomers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
24. [DeepMind + EPFL -- Magnetic control of tokamak plasmas through deep reinforcement learning, Nature 602, 414-419 (2022)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04301-9?error=cookies_not_supported&code=91e8aac6-d0bc-43fc-9b1e-627b06d79abb), Nature / DeepMind / EPFL
25. [ATLAS Experiment at CERN -- machine learning applications: anomaly detection, trigger systems, BSM searches](https://atlas.cern/tags/machine-learning), ATLAS Experiment / CERN
26. [Google DeepMind -- GNoME: 2.2 million crystal candidates; 380,000+ stable; over 700 independently synthesized by 2024 (Nature, 2023)](https://deepmind.google/blog/millions-of-new-materials-discovered-with-deep-learning/), Google DeepMind
27. [APS News -- How are physicists feeling about AI? (April 2026): AI a facet of everyday research; domain expertise essential; Anthropic vibe-physics case study](https://www.aps.org/apsnews/2026/04/how-physicists-feeling-ai), American Physical Society
28. [MACE-MP-0 -- Universal machine-learned interatomic potential for 89 elements at near-DFT accuracy (Batatia et al. 2023)](https://rowansci.com/features/mace-mp-0), Rowan Science / Cambridge University
29. [Rubin Observatory -- First alerts from LSST: real-time ML-classified transient alert stream beginning 2025](https://rubinobservatory.org/news/first-alerts), Vera C. Rubin Observatory

### Forecasts and exposure studies

30. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 19-2012 Physicists (2025: 23.2 thousand; 2035: 24.8 thousand; +7.2%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=19-2012&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
31. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 19-2012.00, human-rated β 0.636)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI
32. [Briggs & Kodnani, "The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth", Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst (26 March 2023), Exhibit 5 (US): life, physical, and social science 36%](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf), Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

### Historical notes

33. [Wikipedia -- Physicist: term coined by William Whewell, 1840, The Philosophy of the Inductive Sciences](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physicist), Wikipedia
34. [APS -- Physics by the numbers: APS founding and member statistics](https://www.aps.org/careers/statistics/index.cfm), American Physical Society
35. [FRASER / BLS Bulletin No. 1144 -- Employment Outlook for Physicists (1953): post-WWII expansion context and employer sectors](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/employment-outlook-physicists-4462/fulltext), FRASER / Bureau of Labor Statistics
36. [Physics Today -- "Physics Today ads track employment boom and bust": Sputnik funding surge; AIP Placement Service 1962 data](https://physicstoday.aip.org/news/physics-today-ads-track-employment-boom-and-bust), Physics Today / AIP Publishing
37. [DeepMind + EPFL -- Magnetic control of tokamak plasmas through deep reinforcement learning, Nature 602, 414-419 (2022)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04301-9?error=cookies_not_supported&code=91e8aac6-d0bc-43fc-9b1e-627b06d79abb), Nature / DeepMind / EPFL Swiss Plasma Center
38. [Google DeepMind -- GNoME: 2.2 million crystal candidates; 380,000+ stable; over 700 independently synthesized (Nature, 2023)](https://deepmind.google/blog/millions-of-new-materials-discovered-with-deep-learning/), Google DeepMind

### Predecessors & successors

39. [Wikipedia -- Physicist: term coined by Whewell 1840; transition from natural philosophy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physicist), Wikipedia
40. [Encyclopedia.com -- Transformation of Physical Sciences into Professions: 19th-century physics chairs often held by mathematicians or chemists](https://www.encyclopedia.com/science/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/transformation-physical-sciences-professions-during-nineteenth-century), Encyclopedia.com
41. [Physics Today -- physics job market bear-to-bull cycle; PhD outflows to computing and finance (2001)](https://physicstoday.aip.org/news/the-physics-job-market-from-bear-to-bull-in-a-decade), Physics Today / AIP
42. [QuantumJobsList 2025-2026 -- quantum technology job listings grew 180% 2020-2024; 3:1 supply shortage; physicists with Qiskit and ML skills command $125k-$210k](https://www.quantumjobslist.com/post/what-are-top-quantum-machine-learning-jobs-and-skills), QuantumJobsList

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Physicists (19-2012.00): tasks, work activities, technology skills, employment data](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/19-2012.00), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BLS OOH — Physicists and Astronomers: ~24,600 employed 2024; 3-4% projected growth 2024-2034; median $166,290; federal government and R&D services primary sectors](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/physicists-and-astronomers.htm), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science): occupational LLM exposure framework; physicists scored moderate exposure with augmentation dominant over displacement](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-24
- [DeepMind + EPFL — Magnetic control of tokamak plasmas through deep reinforcement learning, Nature 602, 414-419 (2022): RL controller adjusts 19 magnetic coils at 10,000 Hz from 90 sensor inputs; first demonstrated on TCV tokamak](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04301-9?error=cookies_not_supported&code=91e8aac6-d0bc-43fc-9b1e-627b06d79abb), accessed 2026-05-24
- [ATLAS Experiment at CERN — machine learning applications: anomaly detection, trigger systems, BSM searches (atlas.cern/tags/machine-learning, 2025)](https://atlas.cern/tags/machine-learning), accessed 2026-05-24
- [arXiv 2501.13789 (CMS, January 2025) — Anomaly Detection for Automated Data Quality Monitoring in the CMS Detector: autoencoder + PCA + beta-binomial AutoDQM system deployed in Run 3](https://arxiv.org/html/2501.13789v1), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Google DeepMind — GNoME (Graph Networks for Materials Exploration): 2.2M crystal candidates identified; 380,000+ stable; \>700 independently synthesized by 2024; Nature (2023)](https://deepmind.google/blog/millions-of-new-materials-discovered-with-deep-learning/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [MACE-MP-0 — Universal machine-learned interatomic potential for 89 elements at DFT accuracy; trained on Materials Project dataset; ~20 meV/atom MAE (Batatia et al. 2023)](https://rowansci.com/features/mace-mp-0), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Rubin Observatory — First alerts from Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST); Lasair broker provides ML-classified transient alerts for astrophysicists (rubinobservatory.org, 2025)](https://rubinobservatory.org/news/first-alerts), accessed 2026-05-24
- [NASA Frontier Development Lab (FDL) — AI for heliophysics and astrophysics: FDL 2025 virtual 4π solar flare monitor challenge; NASA/Google/NVIDIA partnership (fdl.ai)](https://fdl.ai/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [APS News — How are physicists feeling about AI? (April 2026): domain expertise essential to evaluate AI accuracy; AI tools used for derivation checks, code debugging, grant drafting; Anthropic vibe-physics case study](https://www.aps.org/apsnews/2026/04/how-physicists-feeling-ai), accessed 2026-05-24
- [QuantumJobsList / TieTalent 2025-2026 — Quantum technology job listings grew 180% from 2020-2024; 3:1 supply gap; physicists with Qiskit + ML skills command $125k-$210k salaries](https://www.quantumjobslist.com/post/what-are-top-quantum-machine-learning-jobs-and-skills), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Goldman Sachs — The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth (Briggs/Kodnani, 2023): science and engineering occupations lower displacement risk; augmentation dominant](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.html), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Elicit — AI research assistant; 200M+ papers; used by physicists for pre-proposal literature triage and theoretical framework review (Elicit 2025)](https://elicit.com/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Scite.ai — Smart Citations: 1.6B+ citations indexed; shows whether papers are supported, disputed, or mentioned; critical for physicists evaluating replication status of experimental findings (Scite 2025)](https://scite.ai/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Phys. Rev. Lett. 121, 241803 (2018) — Anomaly Detection for Resonant New Physics with Machine Learning; CWoLa paradigm for model-agnostic BSM searches at the LHC](https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.121.241803), accessed 2026-05-24
- [CERN openlab — Anomaly detection for ultra-low latency event selection at the LHC (CMS): transformer-based architecture for trigger systems, 2025](https://openlab.cern/anomaly-detection-for-ultra-low-latency-event-selection-at-the-lhc-cms-experiment/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Wiley Materials Genome Engineering Advances — Systematic assessment of universal machine-learned interatomic potentials (2024): benchmark accuracy comparison across MACE-MP-0, M3GNet, CHGNet, SevenNet](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/mgea.58), accessed 2026-05-24

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.