# Atmospheric and Space Scientists

US SOC code 19-2021. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/19-2021

Also called: Meteorologist, Atmospheric scientist, Climate scientist, Climatologist, Weather forecaster.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **10,000** US atmospheric and space scientists, with median pay of **$99,070** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **10,850**, in May 2014. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://2010-2014.commerce.gov/blog/2012/04/05/national-weather-service-1940s.html) of **400** from 1940, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for atmospheric and space scientists: High-resolution ensemble NWP on supercomputers, 2000 to 2023.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 2.6% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=19-2021&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **60.9%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Atmospheric and Space Scientists employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1870
- Latest US employment: 10,000 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [3]
- Latest US median pay: $99,070 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [9]
- Outlook: +2.6% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [25]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 21103)
  - Employment, 2020: 915. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [6]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 21103 Meteorologists and climatologists, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$106,000. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [13]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 21103 Meteorologists and climatologists, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1940 | 400 (estimate) | $2,200 (estimate) | Est., NWS Heritage Virtual Lab / Commerce.gov (employment) [1]; Est., NWS Heritage Virtual Lab (pay) [7] |
| 1945 | 6,400 (estimate) | n/a | Est., NWS Heritage Virtual Lab / Department… [1] |
| 1980 | n/a | $28,000 (estimate) | Est., American Meteorological Society [8] |
| 2000 | 8,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., NOAA National Weather Service Careers [2] |
| 2003 | 6,490 | $65,670 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [3] |
| 2004 | 7,070 | $70,100 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [3] |
| 2005 | 7,050 | $73,940 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [3] |
| 2006 | 8,250 | $77,150 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [3] |
| 2007 | 8,750 | $78,390 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [3] |
| 2008 | 8,860 | $81,290 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [3] |
| 2009 | 8,320 | $84,710 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [3] |
| 2010 | 8,640 | $87,780 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [3] |
| 2011 | 9,640 | $89,790 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [3] |
| 2012 | 10,190 | $89,260 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [3] |
| 2013 | 10,800 | $87,030 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [3] |
| 2014 | 10,850 | $87,980 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [3] |
| 2015 | 10,370 | $89,820 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [3] |
| 2016 | 9,800 | $92,460 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [3] |
| 2017 | 8,940 | $92,070 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [3] |
| 2018 | 9,310 | $94,110 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [3] |
| 2019 | 9,290 | $95,380 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [3] |
| 2020 | 10,210 | $99,740 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [3] |
| 2021 | 8,520 | $94,570 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [3] |
| 2022 | 9,900 | $83,780 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [3] |
| 2023 | 9,310 | $92,860 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [3] |
| 2024 | 8,780 | $97,450 | BLS OEWS May 2024 (employment) [3]; BLS OEWS May 2024 (pay) [10] |
| 2025 | 10,000 | $99,070 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [3] |

## Sources (93)

### Employment series

1. [NWS Heritage Virtual Lab / Commerce.gov — "The National Weather Service in the 1940s" (400 forecasters in US before WWII training programs)](https://2010-2014.commerce.gov/blog/2012/04/05/national-weather-service-1940s.html), US Department of Commerce / National Weather Service Heritage
2. [NOAA National Weather Service Careers — NWS employs over 4,000 people; private weather services and university research add remainder (year-2000 estimate)](https://www.weather.gov/careers), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service
3. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
4. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
5. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
6. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Wage series

7. [NWS Heritage Virtual Lab — "The National Weather Service at 150: A Brief History" (federal employee context, 1940s Weather Bureau)](https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/the-national-weather-service-at-150-a-brief-history), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / NWS Heritage Virtual Lab
8. [American Meteorological Society — "Where Do Meteorologists Work?" (career guide: federal, private sector, and broadcast meteorology compensation history)](https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/education-careers/careers/career-guides-tools/where-do-meteorologists-work/), American Meteorological Society
9. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
10. [BLS OOH — Atmospheric Scientists, Including Meteorologists: median annual wage $97,450 in May 2024; lowest 10% \<$49,990; highest 10% \>$160,710](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/atmospheric-scientists-including-meteorologists.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
12. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
13. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Tool eras

14. [NWS Heritage Virtual Lab — "The National Weather Service at 150: A Brief History" (telegraph network, first 24 stations, Signal Service era 1870-1891)](https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/the-national-weather-service-at-150-a-brief-history), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / NWS Heritage Virtual Lab
15. [NWS Timeline — weather.gov/timeline: founding of the weather service and telegraph-based observation network](https://www.weather.gov/timeline), National Weather Service
16. [NWS Heritage Virtual Lab — "Numerical Weather Prediction" (radiosonde as prerequisite for NWP; operational upper-air network development)](https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/numerical-weather-prediction), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / NWS Heritage Virtual Lab
17. [historyofinformation.com — "Jule Charney, Agnar Fjortoft and John von Neumann Report the First Weather Forecast by Electronic Computer" (ENIAC 1950 NWP)](https://www.historyofinformation.com/detail.php?id=64), historyofinformation.com
18. [NOAA GOES-R Mission History — "Since 1975, GOES have provided continuous imagery and data on atmospheric conditions"; GOES-1 through GOES-R series; 50 years of geostationary coverage](https://www.goes-r.gov/mission/history.html), NOAA / GOES-R Program
19. [NOAA NSSL — Warn-on-Forecast project: context for the improvement in tornado warning lead times enabled by Doppler radar network](https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/wof/), NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory
20. [Science (December 2023) — Lam et al., GraphCast: outperforms ECMWF IFS on 90% of 1,380 forecast variables; \<1 minute on single TPU](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/382/6677/1416), Google DeepMind / Science
21. [Nature (December 2024) — Price et al., GenCast: 50-member probabilistic ensemble in 8 minutes; outperforms ECMWF ENS on 97.4% of 1,320 targets](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9?error=cookies_not_supported&code=d328c188-aba8-47df-b6a7-a9fdefa54514), Google DeepMind / Nature
22. [ECMWF Newsletter 178 — "AIFS: a new ECMWF forecasting system" (January 2024): AIFS available on ECMWF OpenCharts; higher skill than IFS on standard forecast scores](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
23. [arXiv 2405.13063 (May 2024) — Aurora: 1.3B-parameter atmospheric foundation model; multi-task: weather, air quality, space weather, ocean waves](https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.13063), Microsoft Research
24. [NVIDIA — FourCastNet and Earth-2: global 0.25-degree forecast in \<2 seconds; CorrDiff km-scale downscaling; used by NOAA for experimental guidance](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/high-performance-computing/earth-2/), NVIDIA

### Forecasts and exposure studies

25. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 19-2021 Atmospheric and space scientists (2025: 10.7 thousand; 2035: 10.9 thousand; +2.6%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=19-2021&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
26. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 19-2021.00, human-rated β 0.609)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

27. [NWS Timeline — weather.gov/timeline: founding February 9, 1870; first 24-station simultaneous reports November 1, 1870](https://www.weather.gov/timeline), National Weather Service
28. [NWS Heritage Virtual Lab — "The National Weather Service at 150: A Brief History": professional title "Meteorologist" formally adopted for station directors in 1915](https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/the-national-weather-service-at-150-a-brief-history), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / NWS Heritage Virtual Lab
29. [American Meteorological Society — Wikipedia: AMS founded December 29, 1919 by Charles F. Brooks; initial membership ~600 from Weather Bureau and Signal Corps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Meteorological_Society), Wikipedia / American Meteorological Society
30. [US Department of Commerce — "The National Weather Service in the 1940s": wartime censorship; 6,000+ forecasters trained; 900+ women employed by 1945](https://2010-2014.commerce.gov/blog/2012/04/05/national-weather-service-1940s.html), US Department of Commerce / National Weather Service Heritage
31. [historyofinformation.com — "Jule Charney, Agnar Fjortoft and John von Neumann Report the First Weather Forecast by Electronic Computer" (ENIAC, April 1950)](https://www.historyofinformation.com/detail.php?id=64), historyofinformation.com
32. [ECMWF Newsletter 178 — "AIFS: a new ECMWF forecasting system" (January 2024); arXiv 2406.01465 — AIFS runs four times daily alongside IFS; Science December 2023 — GraphCast](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

### Predecessors & successors

33. [NWS Timeline — founding of the weather service in the Signal Corps; civilian transfer to Weather Bureau 1891](https://www.weather.gov/timeline), National Weather Service
34. [historyofinformation.com — Jule Charney and John von Neumann team at IAS Princeton: applied mathematicians and physicists who founded numerical weather prediction](https://www.historyofinformation.com/detail.php?id=64), historyofinformation.com
35. [NWS Heritage Virtual Lab — "The National Weather Service at 150": military meteorology training programs feeding the civilian workforce post-WWII and Korean War](https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/the-national-weather-service-at-150-a-brief-history), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / NWS Heritage Virtual Lab
36. [Lang et al. (2024) — "AIFS -- ECMWF's data-driven forecasting system": ECMWF meteorologists developing AI NWP system that runs four times daily alongside physics-based IFS; arXiv 2406.01465](https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.01465), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Atmospheric and Space Scientists (19-2021.00): tasks, work activities, technology skills, employment data](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/19-2021.00), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BLS OOH — Atmospheric Scientists, Including Meteorologists: ~12,000 employed 2024; +6% growth 2024-2034; median $84,980; federal government ~40% of employment; private weather services ~25%](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/atmospheric-scientists.htm), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Science (December 2023) — Lam et al.: GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting; outperforms ECMWF IFS on 90% of 1,380 forecast variables; \<1 minute on TPU vs. 1 hour on 1,000 CPUs](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/382/6677/1416), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Nature (December 2024) — Price et al.: GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble weather forecasting at global scale; outperforms ECMWF ENS on 97.4% of 1,320 targets; 50-member ensemble in 8 minutes](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9?error=cookies_not_supported&code=d328c188-aba8-47df-b6a7-a9fdefa54514), accessed 2026-05-24
- [ECMWF — AIFS (Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System): operational ML global forecast system launched 2024; near-IFS skill at \<1% of IFS computational cost; ECMWF Newsletter 178](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Nature (2023) — Bi et al.: Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks (Pangu-Weather, Huawei); 3D Swin Transformer; operational experiment adoption by multiple national services](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06185-3?error=cookies_not_supported&code=d5d5ba2f-e5e1-433e-9737-4cc99953197e), accessed 2026-05-24
- [arXiv 2405.13063 (May 2024) — Chen et al.: Aurora: A foundation model of the atmosphere; 1.3B-parameter ViT; multi-task — weather, air quality, space weather, ocean waves; outperforms Pangu-Weather and GraphCast on benchmarks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.13063), accessed 2026-05-24
- [arXiv 2202.11214 — Pathak et al.: FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators; 0.25° global forecast in \<2 seconds; week-long forecast orders of magnitude faster than IFS](https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.11214), accessed 2026-05-24
- [NOAA NSSL — Warn-on-Forecast (WoF): 0-3 hour probabilistic severe storm and tornado guidance; integrates 3D radar, satellite, and soundings; transitioning to NWS operational testing 2024-2025](https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/wof/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [NVIDIA Earth-2 — GPU-accelerated weather and climate AI platform: FourCastNet, CorrDiff km-scale probabilistic downscaling, custom training for regional AI forecast development](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/high-performance-computing/earth-2/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science): occupational LLM exposure framework; atmospheric scientists scored moderate exposure with augmentation dominant for data analysis and forecast communication](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-24
- [WMO — State of Climate Services 2024: operational AI weather forecast deployment, national meteorological service capacity, Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative](https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-climate-services-2024), accessed 2026-05-24
- [AMS Annual Meeting 2025 — AI sessions: blending AI and physics-based NWP operationally; NWS forecaster concerns about model interpretability in high-impact weather events; BAMS 2024-2025 on communicating probabilistic AI guidance](https://annual.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/2025/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [NOAA GOES-R Series — operational AI product retrieval algorithms: fire/hot spot characterization, cloud-top height, derived motion winds, GLM lightning; GOES-18 operational 2022; GOES-U launched 2024](https://www.goes-r.gov/products/overview.html), accessed 2026-05-24

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.