# Economists

US SOC code 19-3011. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/19-3011

Also called: Senior economist, Research economist, Applied economist, Labor economist, Macro economist.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **17,790** US economists, with median pay of **$124,720** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **19,550**, in May 2017. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Economic_Association) of **868** from 1903, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for economists: Machine learning libraries, cloud compute, and Python for economics, 2015 to 2023.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 4.7% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=19-3011&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **45.8%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **36%** of work tasks in life, physical, and social science occupations, this job's group, are exposed to automation by AI. Not a forecast of job losses. [Goldman Sachs, 2023](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Economists employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1776
- Latest US employment: 17,790 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $124,720 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [8]
- Outlook: +4.7% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [23]

### All 29 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1903 | 868 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [1] |
| 1916 | 2,392 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [1] |
| 1946 | 5,500 (estimate) | n/a | Est., EH.net Encyclopedia [2] |
| 1959 | n/a | $8,000 | BLS historical bulletin 1959 [6] |
| 1980 | 35,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., American Economic Association [3] |
| 2000 | 13,680 | $64,830 | BLS OEWS 2000 [4] |
| 2003 | 12,300 | $70,250 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 12,030 | $72,780 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 12,470 | $73,690 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 12,970 | $77,010 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 12,740 | $80,220 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 12,600 | $83,590 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 13,160 | $86,930 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 13,250 | $89,450 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 14,270 | $90,550 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 15,760 | $91,860 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 17,230 | $93,070 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 18,680 | $95,710 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 19,090 | $99,180 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 19,380 | $101,050 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 19,550 | $102,490 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 18,650 | $104,340 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 19,000 | $105,020 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 17,520 | $108,350 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 15,640 | $105,630 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 16,370 | $113,940 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 16,420 | $115,730 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 15,880 | $115,440 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 17,790 | $124,720 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (93)

### Employment series

1. [Wikipedia, American Economic Association (historical membership data: 868 individual members by 1903)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Economic_Association), Wikipedia / American Economic Association archives
2. [EH.net Encyclopedia, Council of Economic Advisers (employment context and profession size at 1946 establishment)](https://eh.net/encyclopedia/council-of-economic-advisers/), EH.net / Economic History Association
3. [American Economic Association, About the AEA (current membership over 17,000; historical membership context for 1970s-1980s period)](https://www.aeaweb.org/about-aea), American Economic Association
4. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, 1959 Edition (Bulletin No. 1255), economist earnings](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/occupational-outlook-handbook-3964/occupational-outlook-handbook-1959-edition-495782/fulltext), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
8. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
9. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

10. [HET Website, American Economic Association: History of the profession in the US from 1880-1920 (professorial chairs: 3 in 1880, 51 by 1900)](https://www.hetwebsite.net/het/schools/aea.htm), History of Economic Thought website
11. [EH.net, Council of Economic Advisers (history of economist employment in government; Employment Act of 1946)](https://eh.net/encyclopedia/council-of-economic-advisers/), EH.net / Economic History Association
12. [Wikipedia, Herman Hollerith (1890 Census tabulation machine; foundation of data-processing era for economists)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Hollerith), Wikipedia
13. [NBER, Simon Kuznets and the invention of national income accounting (1934 Commerce Department study)](https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c1567/c1567.pdf), NBER / National Bureau of Economic Research
14. [Wikipedia, IBM 704 (first mainframe with floating-point hardware; widely used in economics research from 1954)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_704), Wikipedia
15. [Wikipedia, Cowles Commission for Research in Economics (development of simultaneous-equation econometrics in the mainframe era)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowles_Commission_for_Research_in_Economics), Wikipedia
16. [Stata, Company History (Stata 1.0 released 1985; growth through the desktop microeconomics revolution)](https://www.stata.com/company/), StataCorp
17. [Wikipedia, Credibility revolution in econometrics (quasi-experimental methods in applied economics from the 1980s)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credibility_revolution), Wikipedia
18. [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data): about FRED (launched 1991, web access 1994)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
19. [Wikipedia, R (programming language) (open-source release 1995; adoption in economics from early 2000s)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_%28programming_language%29), Wikipedia
20. [Wikipedia, Scikit-learn (machine learning in Python; widely adopted by applied economists from 2014 onward)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scikit-learn), Wikipedia
21. [Brookings Institution, Generative AI for economic research: Use cases and implications for economists (Journal of Economic Literature 2023)](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/generative-ai-for-economic-research-use-cases-and-implications-for-economists/), Brookings Institution
22. [IMF Staff Discussion Note, Artificial Intelligence in Finance: Safeguards and Implications (2024)](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2024/01/14/Artificial-Intelligence-in-Finance-Safeguards-and-Implications-543749), International Monetary Fund

### Forecasts and exposure studies

23. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 19-3011 Economists (2025: 18.6 thousand; 2035: 19.5 thousand; +4.7%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=19-3011&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
24. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 19-3011.00, human-rated β 0.458)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI
25. [Briggs & Kodnani, "The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth", Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst (26 March 2023), Exhibit 5 (US): life, physical, and social science 36%](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf), Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

### Historical notes

26. [Wikipedia, American Economic Association (founding 1885, Saratoga Springs; Ely, Seligman, and 20+ co-founders)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Economic_Association), Wikipedia
27. [NBER, Simon Kuznets and the invention of national income accounting (1934 Senate request; 1971 Nobel Prize)](https://www.nber.org/reporter), National Bureau of Economic Research
28. [EH.net Encyclopedia, Council of Economic Advisers (Employment Act of 1946; Truman appointment of Nourse, Keyserling, Clark)](https://eh.net/encyclopedia/council-of-economic-advisers/), EH.net / Economic History Association
29. [Wikipedia, Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (first awarded 1969 to Frisch and Tinbergen)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Sciences), Wikipedia
30. [Wikipedia, Credibility revolution (quasi-experimental methods in applied economics; Card-Krueger 1994 as paradigm)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credibility_revolution), Wikipedia
31. [BIS Working Paper 1091, AI and the Economy: A Central Banker's Perspective (2023): central bank economist demand context](https://www.bis.org/publ/work1091.htm), Bank for International Settlements

### Predecessors & successors

32. [HET Website, American Economic Association: history of the US economics profession from 1880 (3 professors in 1880, 51 chairs by 1900)](https://www.hetwebsite.net/het/schools/aea.htm), History of Economic Thought website
33. [Wikipedia, Francis Amasa Walker (US Census superintendent 1870-1880; founding AEA president; exemplar of the statistician-to-economist pathway)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Amasa_Walker), Wikipedia
34. [Goldman Sachs, The Jobs AI Is Likely to Boost and Those It May Disrupt (2025): economist-trained managers in senior finance](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-jobs-ai-is-likely-to-boost-and-those-it-may-disrupt), Goldman Sachs
35. [NBER Working Paper 31161, Large Language Models as Simulated Economic Agents (2023): economist-to-data-scientist pipeline context](https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161), NBER / National Bureau of Economic Research

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-23
- [O\*NET 30.3 — Economists (19-3011.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/19-3011.00), accessed 2026-05-23
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Economists (2024–2034, +8% projected growth)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/economists.htm), accessed 2026-05-23
- [NBER Working Paper 31161 — Large Language Models as Simulated Economic Agents (2023)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Brookings Institution — Generative AI for economic research: Use cases and implications for economists (2024)](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/generative-ai-for-economic-research-use-cases-and-implications-for-economists/), accessed 2026-06-22
- [IMF Staff Note — Artificial Intelligence in Finance: Safeguards and Implications (2024)](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2024/01/14/Artificial-Intelligence-in-Finance-Safeguards-and-Implications-543749), accessed 2026-05-23
- [BIS Working Paper 1091 — AI and the Economy: A Central Banker's Perspective (2023)](https://www.bis.org/publ/work1091.htm), accessed 2026-05-23
- [McKinsey Global Institute — The Economic Potential of Generative AI (2023)](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/tech-and-ai/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Goldman Sachs — The Jobs AI Is Likely to Boost and Those It May Disrupt (2025)](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-jobs-ai-is-likely-to-boost-and-those-it-may-disrupt), accessed 2026-05-23
- [NotebookLM — AI-powered research synthesis and document analysis (2025)](https://notebooklm.google.com/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [AlphaSense — Generative Search for market and economic research intelligence (2026)](https://www.alpha-sense.com/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Bloomberg Terminal AI Assist — feature documentation (2025)](https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/solution/artificial-intelligence/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Refinitiv Workspace — AI-powered economic and financial data platform (2025)](https://www.refinitiv.com/en/products/refinitiv-workspace), accessed 2026-05-23
- [VoxEU / CEPR — Artificial Intelligence and Macroeconomic Forecasting (2024)](https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/artificial-intelligence-and-macroeconomic-forecasting), accessed 2026-05-23
- [GitHub Copilot — AI code generation in VS Code, RStudio, and JupyterLab (2025)](https://github.com/features/copilot), accessed 2026-05-23

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.