# Political Scientists

US SOC code 19-3094. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/19-3094

Also called: Polisci researcher, Policy researcher, Government researcher, International relations scholar, Comparative politics scholar.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **5,540** US political scientists, with median pay of **$142,080** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **6,350**, in May 2016. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://liberalarts.tulane.edu/news-events/publications/newsletter-archive/apsa-nov-2016) of **204** from 1904, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for political scientists: Big data and text-as-data methods, 2010 to 2020. Text-as-data methods created a new subspecialty (computational political science) and increased the value of programming skills for junior researchers.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 2% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=19-3094&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **54.2%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.039** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.039. BLS counted **5,570** of these jobs in May 2013 and **5,540** in May 2025 (-1%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Political Scientists employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1880
- Latest US employment: 5,540 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $142,080 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [10]
- Outlook: -2% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [20]

### All 31 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1904 | 204 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Tulane School of Liberal Arts [1] |
| 1915 | 1,462 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [2] |
| 1940 | 2,857 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Grokipedia [3] |
| 1965 | n/a | $12,000 (estimate) | Est., American Historical Association / AAUP [7] |
| 1968 | 5,176 (estimate) | n/a | Est., PS [4] |
| 1970 | 6,493 (estimate) | n/a | Est., PS [4] |
| 1980 | n/a | $30,000 (estimate) | Est., AHA / AAUP 1991 Faculty Salary Update [8] |
| 2000 | 4,250 | $81,040 | BLS OEWS 2000 [5] |
| 2003 | 4,840 | $81,370 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 4,370 | $86,750 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 5,010 | $84,100 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 3,970 | $90,140 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 3,940 | $91,580 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 3,530 | $104,130 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 3,970 | $104,090 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 4,470 | $107,420 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 5,340 | $103,860 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 5,750 | $102,000 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 5,570 | $100,920 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 5,640 | $104,920 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 3,910 | $99,730 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 6,350 | $114,290 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 6,320 | $115,110 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 5,660 | $117,570 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 6,010 | $122,220 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 6,010 | $125,350 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 5,650 | $122,510 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 5,660 | $128,020 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 5,580 | $132,350 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 5,950 | $139,380 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 5,540 | $142,080 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (92)

### Employment series

1. [Tulane School of Liberal Arts, "The American Political Science Association Founded at Tulane" (APSA founding membership 204, December 1903)](https://liberalarts.tulane.edu/news-events/publications/newsletter-archive/apsa-nov-2016), Tulane University
2. [American Political Science Association Wikipedia, APSA membership history (rose from 204 in 1904 to 1,462 in 1915)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Political_Science_Association), Wikipedia
3. [American Political Science Association Grokipedia, APSA membership stood at approximately 2,857 in 1940, growing after WWII with GI Bill expansion](https://grokipedia.com/page/American_Political_Science_Association), Grokipedia
4. [PS: Political Science and Politics 1971, "The Political Science Profession in 1970: Basic Characteristics" (National Register of Scientific and Technical Personnel count)](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/abs/political-science-profession-in-1970-basic-characteristics/E803C03EE1A1C5405CD2DBA94653A04D), American Political Science Association / Cambridge University Press
5. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

7. [AAUP faculty salary data and historians.org 1990 Faculty Salary Update, historical faculty salary context; mid-1960s social science faculty average full professor salary at doctoral institutions approximately $12,000-14,000](https://www.historians.org/perspectives-article/1990-faculty-salary-update/), American Historical Association / AAUP
8. [AHA / AAUP 1991 Faculty Salary Update, historical context: eight-year period 1972-73 to 1980-81 when average faculty salary increases were consistently less than inflation; real wages fell for most of the 1970s and had not recovered to 1970-71 levels by early 1990s](https://www.historians.org/perspectives-article/faculty-salaries-rise-in-1991-92/), American Historical Association / AAUP
9. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
11. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

12. [Britannica, Political Science: 19th century roots of contemporary political science; evolution from Burgess to behavioralism](https://www.britannica.com/topic/political-science/19th-century-roots-of-contemporary-political-science), Encyclopaedia Britannica
13. [Scholarly review, "The Behavioral Revolution in Contemporary Political Science": the behavioral revolution dominated American political science from the 1950s through the early 1970s, driven by NSF Cold War funding and emphasis on empirical, quantitative methods](https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2404&context=dissertations), Western Michigan University ScholarWorks
14. [American Political Science Association Grokipedia, Cold War-era emphasis on social sciences to inform policy on national security and governance; marked APSA expansion post-WWII driven by GI Bill and federal investment in higher education](https://grokipedia.com/page/American_Political_Science_Association), Grokipedia
15. [ICPSR, Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, founded 1962 at University of Michigan: data archive enabling survey and election data sharing across universities; foundational infrastructure for quantitative political science 1970s-1990s](https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/pages/about/history.html), ICPSR / University of Michigan
16. [LSE Impact Blog / Global Policy Journal 2016, "Social science at the crossroads: the history of political science in the USA and the evolution of social impact": 1990s as the era when quantitative methods hardened as publication standard](https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/16/08/2016/social-science-crossroads-history-political-science-usa-and-evolution-social-impact), Global Policy Journal
17. [APSA Presidential Task Force on AI 2026, "Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Political Science" (Tucker, Persily et al.): dramatic increase in AI-assisted research in political science; BERTopic, transformer models, and LLMs now standard tools for text-as-data analysis](https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/69fa36c0810b9dcc82ce1a60), American Political Science Association
18. [Social Science Computer Review 2025, "Large Language Models Outperform Expert Coders and Supervised Classifiers at Annotating Political Social Media Messages" (Tornberg): LLMs outperform human expert coders on political annotation, accelerating adoption as drop-in RA replacements](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/08944393241286471), Social Science Computer Review / SAGE
19. [APSA Presidential Task Force on AI 2026, "Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Political Science": field lacks best practices for validating AI-assisted research; AI governance is an emerging high-demand subfield for political scientists](https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/69f90d62d1922e37d5138db2), American Political Science Association

### Forecasts and exposure studies

20. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 19-3094 Political scientists (2025: 6.1 thousand; 2035: 6.0 thousand; -2.0%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=19-3094&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
21. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 19-3094.00, human-rated β 0.542)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI
22. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 19-3094 Political Scientists: probability 0.039, rank 125 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

### Historical notes

23. [Britannica, Political Science: 19th century roots; Columbia 1880 founding by John W. Burgess under French and German academic influence](https://www.britannica.com/topic/political-science/19th-century-roots-of-contemporary-political-science), Encyclopaedia Britannica
24. [Early life and academic career of Woodrow Wilson, Wikipedia: PhD in political science from Johns Hopkins, 1886; Congressional Government (1885) opened constitutional study to fundamental criticism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_life_and_academic_career_of_Woodrow_Wilson), Wikipedia
25. [Tulane School of Liberal Arts, "The American Political Science Association Founded at Tulane": founding December 30, 1903; membership 204; Frank Goodnow first president](https://liberalarts.tulane.edu/news-events/publications/newsletter-archive/apsa-nov-2016), Tulane University
26. [American Political Science Association / Grokipedia, post-WWII marked expansion driven by GI Bill, Cold War emphasis on social sciences for national security policy; NSF establishment 1950 and social science research funding](https://grokipedia.com/page/American_Political_Science_Association), Grokipedia
27. [Chronicle of Higher Education, "How a Famous Academic Job-Market Study Got It All Wrong": academic job market collapse by 1970 followed tripling of PhD production in a decade; even big-name programs hiring fewer tenure-track faculty, creating structural PhD surplus](https://www.chronicle.com/article/how-a-famous-academic-job-market-study-got-it-all-wrong-and-why-it-still-matters/), Chronicle of Higher Education
28. [V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2025, "25 Years of Autocratization": V-Dem dataset v15 tracks liberal democracy across 180+ countries; 2025 finding: autocracies now outnumber democracies for first time in 20 years](https://www.v-dem.net/documents/54/v-dem_dr_2025_lowres_v1.pdf), V-Dem Institute
29. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 2024-2034, Political Scientists: federal government employs more than half of all political scientists; post-9/11 security demand mentioned as a structural demand factor for area studies and international security specialists](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/political-scientists.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
30. [APSA Presidential Task Force on AI 2026, "Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Political Science" (Tucker, Persily et al.): field lacks benchmarks for AI research validation; five domains of AI-democracy challenge; AI governance as growth area for political scientists](https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/69f90d62d1922e37d5138db2), American Political Science Association

### Predecessors & successors

31. [Britannica, Political Science: 19th century roots; discipline emerged from philosophy, history, and law in late 19th century US universities](https://www.britannica.com/topic/political-science/19th-century-roots-of-contemporary-political-science), Encyclopaedia Britannica
32. [Columbia University School of Political Science, Burgess 1880 founding: political science separated from joint history-political science departments in the 1880s-1900s](https://liberalarts.tulane.edu/news-events/publications/newsletter-archive/apsa-nov-2016), Tulane University

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Political Scientists (19-3094.00): tasks, work activities, technology skills, knowledge domains, employment data](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/19-3094.00), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 2024-2034 — Political Scientists: ~6,500 employed; -3% projected decline through 2034; ~500 annual openings from replacement demand; median annual wage $139,380; top employers: government, research/policy institutes, think tanks, lobbying firms](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/political-scientists.htm), accessed 2026-05-24
- [APSA Presidential Task Force on AI — "Artificial Intelligence, Politics, and Political Science" (2026, Tucker, Persily et al.): field lacks best practices for validating AI-assisted research; key themes include AI opacity, bias in AI systems, and power concentration in AI corporations](https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/69f90d62d1922e37d5138db2), accessed 2026-05-24
- [PS: Political Science & Politics 2024 — "Applications of GPT in Political Science Research: Extracting Information from Unstructured Text" (Lee et al.): GPT-4 achieves ~94% character accuracy on archival OCR cleanup; \<5% error on news source extraction; performs biographical data coding at near-expert level](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/applications-of-gpt-in-political-science-research-extracting-information-from-unstructured-text/7614D066F380A3751D298C2FF3C74F65), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Political Science Research and Methods 2024 — "How to Train Your Stochastic Parrot: Large Language Models for Political Texts": fine-tuning BERT-family models is the practical starting point; domain-specific models (PolitBERT, Political DEBATE) for specialized tasks; open-weight models preferred for reproducibility](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/how-to-train-your-stochastic-parrot-large-language-models-for-political-texts/8EAA8096779B5C9DDBDF1BFC71C63AEC), accessed 2026-05-24
- [American Journal of Political Science 2025 — "Using Large Language Models to Analyze Political Texts through Natural Language Understanding" (Benoit et al.): LLMs offer scalable alternatives to human experts for meaning-rich text analysis; NLU output captures depth of qualitative analysis at quantitative scale](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.70050), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Social Science Computer Review 2025 — "Large Language Models Outperform Expert Coders and Supervised Classifiers at Annotating Political Social Media Messages" (Törnberg): LLMs outperform both traditional classifiers and human expert coders on political annotation tasks](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/08944393241286471), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Frontiers in Political Science 2023 — "Large Language Models and Political Science": LLMs automate content analysis, document summarization, and qualitative categorization; limitations include black-box opacity, hallucination, bias propagation, and reproducibility challenges; human validation, bias assessment, and prompt design remain essential](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1257092/full), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BERTopic / HuggingFace — topic modeling framework using transformer embeddings and c-TF-IDF for political discourse analysis; 2025 applications: U.S. presidential speech themes, congressional discourse modeling, moral foundations in 117th Congress Twitter activity; PolitBERT and Political DEBATE domain-specific models](https://huggingface.co/docs/hub/bertopic), accessed 2026-05-24
- [ACLED — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data: 1.3M+ geocoded political violence events; CAST ML forecasting tool predicts violence globally at subnational level up to 6 months ahead with Explanatory AI for factor disentanglement; used by political scientists, IGOs, and conflict researchers](https://acleddata.com/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2025 — "25 Years of Autocratization": V-Dem dataset v15 tracks liberal democracy across 180+ countries; autocracies now outnumber democracies for first time in 20 years; used by political scientists with ML for regime classification and democratic backsliding prediction](https://www.v-dem.net/documents/54/v-dem_dr_2025_lowres_v1.pdf), accessed 2026-05-24
- [ATLAS.ti (Lumivero) — qualitative data analysis software with embedded AI: AI-powered coding suggestions, sentiment analysis, theme extraction, interview transcription (OpenAI-powered); Lumivero acquired NVivo September 2024; NVivo 15.3 (late 2025) adds generative-AI summarization and statistical analysis](https://lumivero.com/products/atlasti/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Qualtrics XM AI — AI-assisted survey design and analysis: AI-generated survey structure suggestions, automated sentiment and theme extraction from open-ended responses, synthetic respondent generation; October 2025 study: AI synthetic responses reproduced study results within margin of error for closed-ended opinion items](https://www.qualtrics.com/articles/strategy-research/qualtrics-ai-outperforms-general-use-llms/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science): occupational LLM exposure framework for 923 occupations; political scientists seeded at moderate-to-high text-task LLM exposure reflecting the research-intensive, text-dominant nature of the occupation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-24
- [APSA Presidential Task Force on AI 2026 — field lacks agreed-upon benchmarks for evaluating AI-assisted research quality; researchers, reviewers, and funders unsure how to assess LLM extraction validity; researchers who document AI methodology rigorously will be advantaged in peer review](https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/69fa36c0810b9dcc82ce1a60), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Elicit — AI literature review tool; semantic search across 138M+ papers; Research Agents (late 2025) identify up to 1,000 relevant papers and analyze 20,000 data points; registered in 25-1071.00.ts](https://elicit.com/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [NotebookLM (Google) — AI research synthesis: ingests PDFs/papers, answers questions grounded in corpus, generates thematic maps; registered in 25-1021.00.ts / 19-3011.00.ts](https://notebooklm.google.com/), accessed 2026-05-24

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.