# Healthcare Social Workers

US SOC code 21-1022. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/21-1022

Also called: Medical social worker, Hospital social worker, Clinical social worker, Discharge planner, Medical case manager.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **187,630** US healthcare social workers, with median pay of **$67,880** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2012, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2664972/) of **200** from 1912, not measured the same way as today's count. The current technology era for healthcare social workers: AI documentation assistants and ambient clinical AI, since 2020.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 8.5% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=21-1022&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **42.2%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.0035** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.0035. BLS counted **141,830** of these jobs in May 2013 and **187,630** in May 2025 (+32%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Healthcare Social Workers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1905
- Latest US employment: 187,630 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $67,880 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [7]
- Outlook: +8.5% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [18]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1912 | 200 (estimate) | n/a | Est., PMC [1] |
| 1920 | 1,500 (estimate) | n/a | Est., PMC [1] |
| 1947 | 4,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Social Welfare History Project [2] |
| 1980 | 40,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., CMSATODAY [3] |
| 2002 | 101,000 (estimate) | $33,460 (estimate) | Est., ASPE HHS [4] |
| 2003 | 103,270 | $38,430 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 103,180 | $40,080 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 112,220 | $41,120 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 116,750 | $43,040 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 120,060 | $44,670 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 131,730 | $45,650 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 133,510 | $46,300 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 143,080 | $47,230 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 133,890 | $48,620 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 140,000 | $49,830 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 141,830 | $50,820 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 145,920 | $51,930 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 155,590 | $52,380 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 159,310 | $53,760 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 167,730 | $54,870 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 168,190 | $56,200 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 174,890 | $56,750 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 176,110 | $57,630 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 173,860 | $60,840 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 182,420 | $60,280 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 185,020 | $62,940 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 185,940 | $68,090 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 187,630 | $67,880 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (82)

### Employment series

1. [PMC — "Historical Threads in the Development of Oncology Social Work" (early hospital social work department count)](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2664972/), PubMed Central / NIH
2. [Social Welfare History Project — "World War II and the Social Work Profession: The Veterans Administration Response to Crisis" (VA employed 1,023 social workers by 1947)](https://socialwelfare.library.vcu.edu/social-work/world-war-ii-and-the-social-work-profession-the-veterans-administration-response-to-crisis/), Social Welfare History Project / VCU Libraries
3. [CMSATODAY — "The History of Social Work in the Hospital Setting" (hospital social work growth through the 1980s)](https://cmsatoday.com/2024/03/04/the-history-of-social-work-in-the-hospital-setting/), Case Management Society of America
4. [ASPE HHS — "Supply and Demand of Professional Social Workers Providing Long-Term Care Services: Report to Congress" (social workers in long-term care, 2002-2004)](https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/supply-demand-professional-social-workers-providing-long-term-care-services-report-congress-0), US Department of Health and Human Services / ASPE
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [ASPE HHS — "Supply and Demand of Professional Social Workers Providing Long-Term Care Services" (social worker mean wage in nursing facilities, 2002: $30,040-$33,460)](https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/supply-demand-professional-social-workers-providing-long-term-care-services-report-congress-0), US Department of Health and Human Services / ASPE
7. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

8. [Massachusetts General Hospital — "History of Social Service at Massachusetts General Hospital" (Ida Cannon's department, 1906-1945)](https://www.massgeneral.org/social-service/about/history), Massachusetts General Hospital
9. [Social Welfare History Project — "National Association of Social Workers: History (1917-1955)" (1955 consolidation of eight predecessor organizations)](https://socialwelfare.library.vcu.edu/social-work/national-association-social-workers-history/), Social Welfare History Project / VCU Libraries
10. [Wikipedia — Medical Social Work (Medicare and Medicaid, 1965; Social Security Act Amendments, 1972)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_social_work), Wikipedia
11. [Wikipedia — Diagnosis-related group (1983 Medicare prospective payment system introduction)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diagnosis-related_group), Wikipedia
12. [CMSATODAY — "The History of Social Work in the Hospital Setting" (1985 dyad model at MGH)](https://cmsatoday.com/2024/03/04/the-history-of-social-work-in-the-hospital-setting/), Case Management Society of America
13. [CDC — Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA)](https://www.cdc.gov/phlp/php/resources/health-insurance-portability-and-accountability-act-of-1996-hipaa.html), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
14. [NASW — "NASW Standards for Social Work Practice in Health Care Settings" (2016)](https://www.socialworkers.org/Practice/NASW-Practice-Standards-Guidelines/NASW-Standards-for-Social-Work-Practice-in-Health-Care-Settings), National Association of Social Workers
15. [Advances in Social Work — "COVID-19 and the Rapid Expansion of Telehealth in Social and Behavioral Health Services"](https://journals.indianapolis.iu.edu/index.php/advancesinsocialwork/article/view/25088), Indiana University Journals / Advances in Social Work
16. [NASW Social Work Blog — "The AI Revolution in Social Work: NASW's Call for Action" (February 2025)](https://www.socialworkblog.org/sw-practice/2025/02/the-ai-revolution-in-social-work-nasws-call-for-action/), National Association of Social Workers
17. [UMN CASCW — "The Impact of AI Technology on the Social Work Profession: Benefits, Risks, and Ethical Considerations" (Spring 2025)](https://cascw.umn.edu/cw360deg-spring-2025/impact-ai-technology-social-work-profession-benefits-risks-and-ethical), University of Minnesota Center for Advanced Studies in Child Welfare

### Forecasts and exposure studies

18. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 21-1022 Healthcare social workers (2025: 194.8 thousand; 2035: 211.3 thousand; +8.5%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=21-1022&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
19. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 21-1022.00, human-rated β 0.422)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI
20. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 21-1022 Healthcare Social Workers: probability 0.0035, rank 8 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

### Historical notes

21. [Massachusetts General Hospital — "History of Social Service at Massachusetts General Hospital"](https://www.massgeneral.org/social-service/about/history), Massachusetts General Hospital
22. [CMSATODAY — "The History of Social Work in the Hospital Setting" (founding of the AAHSW in 1918)](https://cmsatoday.com/2024/03/04/the-history-of-social-work-in-the-hospital-setting/), Case Management Society of America
23. [Social Welfare History Project — "World War II and the Social Work Profession: The Veterans Administration Response to Crisis" (115 workers in 1944; 1,023 by 1947)](https://socialwelfare.library.vcu.edu/social-work/world-war-ii-and-the-social-work-profession-the-veterans-administration-response-to-crisis/), Social Welfare History Project / VCU Libraries
24. [Wikipedia — Medical Social Work (Medicare and Medicaid 1965 and their impact on hospital social work)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_social_work), Wikipedia
25. [Wikipedia — Diagnosis-related group (1983 Medicare PPS and discharge planning)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diagnosis-related_group), Wikipedia
26. [Advances in Social Work — "COVID-19 and the Rapid Expansion of Telehealth in Social and Behavioral Health Services" (telehealth adoption in social work during the pandemic)](https://journals.indianapolis.iu.edu/index.php/advancesinsocialwork/article/view/25088), Indiana University Journals / Advances in Social Work

### Predecessors & successors

27. [Massachusetts General Hospital — "History of Social Service" (Ida Cannon's background in the settlement house tradition)](https://www.massgeneral.org/social-service/about/history), Massachusetts General Hospital
28. [AJPH — "A History of Social Work in Public Health" (nursing-to-social-work pathways)](https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2017.304005), American Journal of Public Health

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3: Healthcare Social Workers (21-1022.00) tasks, wages, projected growth](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/21-1022.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook: Social Workers, 2024-34 projections](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/community-and-social-service/social-workers.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Eloundou et al. 2024, GPTs are GPTs (Science): LLM task-exposure methodology](https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adj0998), accessed 2026-06-05
- [NASW: The AI Revolution in Social Work, Call for Action (Feb 2025)](https://www.socialworkblog.org/sw-practice/2025/02/the-ai-revolution-in-social-work-nasws-call-for-action/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [UMN CASCW: The Impact of AI Technology on the Social Work Profession (Spring 2025)](https://cascw.umn.edu/cw360deg-spring-2025/impact-ai-technology-social-work-profession-benefits-risks-and-ethical), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Eleos Health: Documentation for Behavioral Health and Social Work (2025)](https://eleos.health/documentation/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Berries AI: AI Scribe for Mental Health Professionals (2025)](https://heyberries.com/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Tandfonline: Unintended Ramifications of AI-Assisted Documentation in Clinical Social Work (2025)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/26408066.2025.2571439), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Eleos Health: 2025 AI Innovation in Compassionate Care](https://eleos.health/blog-posts/eleos-2025-ai-innovation-compassionate-care/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [PMC: Narrative Review on SDOH Screenings and Social Work in Healthcare (2025)](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12111374/), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.