# Clergy

US SOC code 21-2011. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/21-2011

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **57,200** US clergy, with median pay of **$60,810** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **58,080**, in May 2024, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is [a Census count](https://usa.ipums.org/usa-action/variables/OCC1950) of **43,000** from 1870, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for clergy: Church management software, livestreaming, and online sermons, 1995 to 2020.

Figures: Official statistic (latest count and pay, highest count); Researched context (earliest figure).

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 2.4% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=21-2011&ioType=o) (Official statistic).

### AI exposure studies

- **23.8%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) (Official statistic)
- **0.0081** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) (Official statistic)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.0081. BLS counted **45,020** of these jobs in May 2013 and **57,200** in May 2025 (+27%, a change derived by Future History). Figures: Official statistic.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Clergy employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1750
- Latest US employment: 57,200 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $60,810 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [7]
- Outlook: +2.4% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [17]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1870 | 43,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1870 [1] |
| 1900 | 111,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1900 [2] |
| 1940 | 141,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1940 [3] |
| 1960 | 200,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1960 [4] |
| 1990 | 302,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1990 [5] |
| 2003 | 38,170 | $33,800 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 35,790 | $36,690 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 36,590 | $38,540 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 37,820 | $39,680 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 40,960 | $40,460 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 42,040 | $41,730 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 42,670 | $42,950 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 42,820 | $43,970 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 42,560 | $44,140 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 44,000 | $44,060 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 45,020 | $43,800 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 46,510 | $43,950 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 48,250 | $44,250 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 49,320 | $45,740 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 49,850 | $47,100 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 50,960 | $48,990 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 53,180 | $50,400 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 52,260 | $51,940 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 50,790 | $49,720 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 53,140 | $55,550 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 56,640 | $58,920 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 58,080 | $60,820 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 57,200 | $60,810 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (72)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA: OCC1950 variable documentation — 1950 Census occupational classification applied to historical census years (1850-2024), including 1870 Census of Population (clergy OCC1950 code 0090)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa-action/variables/OCC1950), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. [1900 Census Special Reports: Occupations at the Twelfth Census (US Census Bureau, 1904)](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1904/dec/occupations.html), US Census Bureau
3. [US Census Bureau, Comparative Occupation Statistics for the United States 1870-1940 (Alba M. Edwards, 1943), Table XXVII — Clergymen](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1943/demo/edwards-01.html), US Census Bureau
4. [US Census Bureau, Occupational Trends in the United States 1900 to 1950 (1958), and 1960 Census: Detailed Characteristics — Occupation (PC(1)-D volumes)](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1958/demo/occupational-trends-1958.html), US Census Bureau
5. [IPUMS USA, 1990 Census 5% Sample: occupation variable OCC, code 176 "Clergy" — tabulation of employed persons](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ1990.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

7. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

8. [Encyclopedia.com, "Professions: Clergy" — colonial clergy role, education, and formation in early American denominational life](https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/professions-clergy), Encyclopedia.com
9. [Wikipedia, "Circuit rider (religious)" — history of Methodist itinerant ministry in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circuit_rider_%28religious%29), Wikipedia
10. [American Bible Society (1815 founding); steam press and Bible distribution history](https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-realworldcomm/chapter/15-1-technological-advances-from-the-printing-press-to-the-iphone/), Lumen Learning / Communication in the Real World
11. [Old Time Radio — "Aimee Semple McPherson: Radio Religion and Reality" (KFSG, first Christian radio station, 1924; first woman FCC licensee)](https://www.otrcat.com/aimee-semple-mcpherson-radio-religion-and-reality), Old Time Radio
12. [Father Coughlin Radio Show history — CBS broadcasting, audience estimates, and regulatory response](https://www.fathercoughlin.org/p/radio-show.html), fathercoughlin.org
13. [Megachurch Research — Hartford Institute for Religion Research: megachurch growth statistics 1970-2005 (50 in 1970, 150 in 1980, 310 in 1990, 600+ in 2000)](https://hirr.hartfordinternational.edu/research/megachurch-research/), Hartford Institute for Religion Research
14. [Religion Insights — "Megachurch Trends": annual growth rates and number of megachurches by decade](https://www.religioninsights.org/megachurch-trends), Religion Insights
15. [COVID Religion Research — "Having Embraced Tech, Pastors Now Use AI to Support Ministry" (pandemic digital transition and pastoral technology adoption)](https://www.covidreligionresearch.org/having-embraced-tech-pastors-now-use-ai-to-support-ministry/), Exploring the Pandemic Impact on Congregations
16. [2025 State of AI in the Church Survey (AiForChurchLeaders.com and Exponential AI NEXT, n=594): 61% of pastors use AI weekly; ChatGPT leading tool at 26%](https://www.christianpost.com/news/majority-of-pastors-using-ai-to-prepare-sermons-study.html), The Christian Post / AiForChurchLeaders.com

### Forecasts and exposure studies

17. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 21-2011 Clergy (2025: 242.0 thousand; 2035: 247.8 thousand; +2.4%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=21-2011&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
18. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 21-2011 Clergy: probability 0.0081, rank 42 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
19. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 21-2011.00, human-rated β 0.238)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

20. [Encyclopedia.com, "Professions: Clergy" — Andover Theological Seminary (1808) and the development of graduate seminary training in American Protestantism](https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/professions-clergy), Encyclopedia.com
21. [Wikipedia, "Second Great Awakening" — Methodist growth and circuit rider workforce statistics (1,000 members in 1800 to 34% of American church membership by mid-19th century)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Great_Awakening), Wikipedia
22. [Old Time Radio — "Aimee Semple McPherson: Radio Religion and Reality" (KFSG, 1924; first woman FCC licensee; Angelus Temple)](https://www.otrcat.com/aimee-semple-mcpherson-radio-religion-and-reality), Old Time Radio
23. [United Methodist Church — "Timeline of Women in Methodism" (May 4, 1956: General Conference grants women full clergy rights; Maude Jensen first full member)](https://www.umc.org/en/content/timeline-of-women-in-methodism), The United Methodist Church
24. [Hartford Institute for Religion Research, Megachurch Research — national surveys 2000, 2005, 2008 (Thumma and Bird): megachurch growth statistics](https://hirr.hartfordinternational.edu/research/megachurch-research/), Hartford Institute for Religion Research
25. [COVID Religion Research — "Having Embraced Tech, Pastors Now Use AI to Support Ministry" (digital transition during COVID-19 pandemic and lasting impact on clergy technology use)](https://www.covidreligionresearch.org/having-embraced-tech-pastors-now-use-ai-to-support-ministry/), Exploring the Pandemic Impact on Congregations

### Predecessors & successors

26. [Encyclopedia.com, "Professions: Clergy" — seminary formation as the standard entry pathway since Andover Theological Seminary (1808)](https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/professions-clergy), Encyclopedia.com

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-21
- [O\*NET 30.3 — US Department of Labor](https://www.onetcenter.org/database.html), accessed 2026-05-21

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.