# Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators

US SOC code 23-1022. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/23-1022

Also called: Arbitrator, Mediator, Conciliator, Neutral, ADR specialist.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **9,210** US arbitrators, mediators, and conciliators, with median pay of **$75,530** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Conciliation_Service) of **150** from 1920, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for arbitrators, mediators, and conciliators: Virtual hearing platforms + document AI review, 2015 to 2022.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 4.7% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=23-1022&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **37.1%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

## Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1865
- Latest US employment: 9,210 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $75,530 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [7]
- Outlook: +4.7% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [18]

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1920 | 150 (estimate) | n/a | Est., United States Conciliation Service [1] |
| 1948 | 400 (estimate) | $4,200 (estimate) | Est., Federal Mediation and Conciliation… (employment) [2]; Est., Wikipedia (pay) [6] |
| 1987 | 3,200 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Mediate.com [3] |
| 2000 | 5,100 (estimate) | n/a | Est., EEOC [4] |
| 2003 | 4,640 | $47,360 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 4,940 | $54,760 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 5,780 | $54,360 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 8,110 | $49,490 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 8,810 | $48,840 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 9,570 | $50,660 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 8,110 | $52,770 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 6,920 | $55,800 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 6,880 | $60,440 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 6,520 | $61,280 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 6,830 | $60,450 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 6,710 | $57,180 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 6,380 | $58,020 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 6,300 | $59,770 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 6,110 | $60,670 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 6,240 | $62,270 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 6,090 | $63,930 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 5,810 | $66,130 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 7,320 | $49,410 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 7,780 | $64,030 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 7,060 | $71,540 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 7,860 | $67,710 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 9,210 | $75,530 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (90)

### Employment series

1. [United States Conciliation Service — Wikipedia (commissioner numbers ranged 35-200)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Conciliation_Service), Wikipedia (citing DOL history)
2. [Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (1947) — FMCS timeline and first-year statistics](https://www.fmcs.gov/1947/), Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service
3. [Mediate.com — "The History of Mediation and Why It Is Still in Use Today" (1980s ADR expansion)](https://mediate.com/the-history-of-mediation-and-why-it-is-still-in-use-today/), Mediate.com
4. [EEOC — History of the EEOC Mediation Program (national program fully implemented April 1999)](https://www.eeoc.gov/history-eeoc-mediation-program), US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [Wikipedia — United States Conciliation Service (FMCS successor; staff and role context)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Conciliation_Service), Wikipedia (citing DOL history)
7. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
8. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

9. [DOL History — Chapter 1: Start-up of the Department and World War I, 1913-1921](https://www.dol.gov/general/aboutdol/history/dolchp01), US Department of Labor
10. [American Arbitration Association — Wikipedia (founding 1926, first Code of Arbitration 1931)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Arbitration_Association), Wikipedia (citing AAA primary sources)
11. [Federal Arbitration Act — Wikipedia (1925, FAA history and effect)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Arbitration_Act), Wikipedia
12. [Amherst Divorce — A History of Divorce Mediation in the United States (1976 Pound Conference, multi-door courthouse)](https://www.amherstdivorce.com/blog/a-history-of-divorce-mediation-in-the-united-states.html), Amherst Divorce
13. [JAMS History — JAMS founded 1979, national expansion through 1994 Endispute merger](https://www.jamsadr.com/history), JAMS ADR
14. [Mediate.com — Colin Rule and the Rise of Online Dispute Resolution (eBay Resolution Center, 2003-2011)](https://mediate.com/separating-the-people-from-the-problem-colin-rule-and-the-rise-of-online-dispute-resolution/), Mediate.com
15. [American Arbitration Association — Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) platform: resolves tens of millions of disputes per year for courts and platforms](https://www.adr.org/odr/), American Arbitration Association
16. [Tyler Technologies — Modria ODR platform: 450+ court and government deployments](https://www.tylertech.com/products/modria), Tyler Technologies
17. [ABA Section of Dispute Resolution — AI in ADR: Task Force Preliminary Guidance (2025)](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/dispute_resolution/), American Bar Association

### Forecasts and exposure studies

18. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 23-1022 Arbitrators, mediators, and conciliators (2025: 10.5 thousand; 2035: 11.0 thousand; +4.7%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=23-1022&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
19. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 23-1022.00, human-rated β 0.371)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

20. [Number Analytics — Evolution of Arbitration in US Labor History (state boards of arbitration, 1886)](https://www.numberanalytics.com/blog/evolution-arbitration-us-labor-history), Number Analytics
21. [DOL History — Chapter 1: Start-up of the Department and World War I, 1913-1921](https://www.dol.gov/general/aboutdol/history/dolchp01), US Department of Labor
22. [Wikipedia — Federal Arbitration Act (signed February 12, 1925)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Arbitration_Act), Wikipedia
23. [American Arbitration Association — Wikipedia (founding 1926, early history)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Arbitration_Association), Wikipedia
24. [FMCS — 1947 Timeline and First Year Statistics](https://www.fmcs.gov/1947/), Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service
25. [Amherst Divorce — History of Divorce Mediation in the United States (1976 Pound Conference)](https://www.amherstdivorce.com/blog/a-history-of-divorce-mediation-in-the-united-states.html), Amherst Divorce
26. [JAMS History — founding 1979, national expansion, 500+ panelists](https://www.jamsadr.com/history), JAMS ADR
27. [Wikipedia — Gilmer v. Interstate/Johnson Lane Corp. (1991)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilmer_v._Interstate/Johnson_Lane_Corp.), Wikipedia
28. [EEOC — EEOC Mediation Statistics FY 1999 through FY 2020](https://www.eeoc.gov/eeoc-mediation-statistics-fy-1999-through-fy-2020), US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
29. [Mediate.com — Colin Rule and the Rise of Online Dispute Resolution (eBay, 60M disputes/year)](https://mediate.com/separating-the-people-from-the-problem-colin-rule-and-the-rise-of-online-dispute-resolution/), Mediate.com

### Predecessors & successors

30. [Number Analytics — Evolution of Arbitration in US Labor History (lawyers as early labor arbitrators)](https://www.numberanalytics.com/blog/evolution-arbitration-us-labor-history), Number Analytics
31. [Wikipedia — United States Conciliation Service (dissolved 1947, staff transferred to FMCS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Conciliation_Service), Wikipedia
32. [JAMS History — founded 1979 by Judge H. Warren Knight (retired Orange County judge)](https://www.jamsadr.com/history), JAMS ADR
33. [Amherst Divorce — History of Divorce Mediation in the United States (1970s-1980s professional origins)](https://www.amherstdivorce.com/blog/a-history-of-divorce-mediation-in-the-united-states.html), Amherst Divorce

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-23
- [O\*NET 30.3 — Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators (23-1022.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/23-1022.00), accessed 2026-05-23
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators (+5% growth 2024-2034)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/legal/arbitrators-mediators-and-conciliators.htm), accessed 2026-05-23
- [AAA — Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) initiative and platform overview](https://www.adr.org/odr/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Tyler Technologies — Modria ODR platform: 450+ court and government deployments](https://www.tylertech.com/products/modria), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Smartsettle — Smartsettle ONE AI-assisted negotiation platform](https://www.smartsettle.com/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Hong Kong eBRAM Centre — AI-assisted ODR platform (launched 2024)](https://www.ebram.org/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [ABA Section of Dispute Resolution — AI in ADR: Task Force Preliminary Guidance (2025)](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/dispute_resolution/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [ACR (Association for Conflict Resolution) — 2025 Membership Survey: AI adoption in ADR practice](https://acrnet.org/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [JAMS ADR — Online Mediation and Arbitration (virtual and hybrid proceedings)](https://www.jamsadr.com/online), accessed 2026-06-22
- [Magesh et al., Journal of Empirical Legal Studies (2025) — hallucination rates in AI legal research tools](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jels.12413), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Harvey AI — Platform Overview (arbitration hearing prep, brief analysis)](https://www.harvey.ai/platform), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Lex Machina (LexisNexis) — Litigation analytics for pre-arbitration risk assessment](https://www.lexisnexis.com/en-us/products/lex-machina.page), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Thomson Reuters — CoCounsel Legal with Deep Research (Aug 2025)](https://www.lawnext.com/2025/08/thomson-reuters-launches-cocounsel-legal-with-agentic-ai-and-deep-research-capabilities-along-with-a-new-and-final-version-of-westlaw.html), accessed 2026-05-23

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.