# Substitute Teachers, Short-Term

US SOC code 25-3031. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/25-3031

Also called: Substitute teacher, Sub teacher, Day substitute, Guest teacher, Day-to-day sub.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **524,770** US short-term substitute teachers, with median pay of **$41,670** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1900/bulletins/demographic/23-statistics-of-teachers.pdf) of **25,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for short-term substitute teachers: Google Classroom, Chromebooks, and digital learning management systems, 2012 to 2023.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 2% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=25-3031&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **8.3%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

## Substitute Teachers, Short-Term employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1852
- Latest US employment: 524,770 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $41,670 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [8]
- Outlook: +2% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [20]

### All 11 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 25,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., US Census Bureau Bulletin 23 [1] |
| 1950 | 80,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., NCES [2] |
| 1970 | 220,000 (estimate) | $4,200 (estimate) | Est., NCES Digest of Education Statistics (employment) [3]; Est., NCES (pay) [6] |
| 2000 | 490,000 (estimate) | $18,500 (estimate) | Est., K-12 Dive (employment) [4]; Est., NCES (pay) [7] |
| 2019 | 587,120 | $28,790 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 512,030 | $29,370 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 374,620 | $30,100 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 397,200 | $35,250 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 444,530 | $37,380 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 481,300 | $38,470 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 524,770 | $41,670 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (51)

### Employment series

1. [US Census Bureau Bulletin 23 — "Census Statistics of Teachers" (1900); NCES "120 Years of American Education: A Statistical Portrait" (1993)](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1900/bulletins/demographic/23-statistics-of-teachers.pdf), US Census Bureau
2. [NCES — "120 Years of American Education: A Statistical Portrait" (1993), Table 1: Public school enrollment and teachers, selected years 1869-70 to 1990-91](https://nces.ed.gov/pubs93/93442.pdf), National Center for Education Statistics
3. [NCES Digest of Education Statistics — Public and private elementary and secondary teachers, enrollment, and pupil/teacher ratios: Selected years, fall 1955 through fall 2023](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_208.20.asp), National Center for Education Statistics
4. [K-12 Dive — "How has substitute teacher staffing changed since the pandemic?" (referencing BLS 2018 figure of 527,780)](https://www.k12dive.com/news/substitute-staffing-challenges-staffed-up/700166/), K-12 Dive
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [NCES — "Estimated average annual salary of teachers in public elementary and secondary schools: Selected years, 1959-60 through 2008-09" (Table dt09\_078)](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d09/tables/dt09_078.asp), National Center for Education Statistics
7. [NCES — "Minimum and average teacher salaries, by state: 1990-91, 1998-99, and 1999-2000" (Table dt01\_079)](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d01/dt079.asp), National Center for Education Statistics
8. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
9. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

10. [History.com — "Who Invented Public School in America?" (common school era, Horace Mann reforms, McGuffey Readers)](https://www.history.com/articles/public-school-america-horace-mann), HISTORY
11. [Boston Magazine — "TBT: Massachusetts Passes the Nation's First Compulsory Education Law" (1852)](https://www.bostonmagazine.com/education/2018/05/17/tbt-compulsory-education-massachusetts/), Boston Magazine
12. [Technology Source Archives — "Instructional Television's Changing Role in the Classroom" (history of AV in schools)](http://www.technologysource.org/article/instructional_televisions_changing_role_in_the_classroom/), Technology Source
13. [Tedium — "TV Cart History: The Cart That Brought the Boob Tube to the Classroom" (Bretford 1957 origin, safety history, cultural significance)](https://tedium.co/2023/01/28/school-audiovisual-cart-history/), Tedium
14. [EBSCO Research Starters — "Educational Television in the Classroom" (classroom TV penetration, 1976-77: 42% of teachers used)](https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/education/educational-television-classroom), EBSCO
15. [EBSCO Research Starters — "History of Public Education in the US" (internet integration in schools, 1990s-2000s)](https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/history/history-public-education-us), EBSCO
16. [Google for Education — Google Classroom product overview (launched 2014)](https://edu.google.com/workspace-for-education/products/classroom/), Google
17. [MagicSchool AI — Lesson Plan Generator (94% of users report 7+ hours saved per week)](https://www.magicschool.ai/tools/lesson-plan), MagicSchool AI
18. [Brisk Teaching — 2M+ teachers, 20,000 school districts; Sub Plan Generator](https://www.briskteaching.com/), Brisk Teaching
19. [Nearpod — AI Create: lesson generator for interactive classroom activities](https://nearpod.com/ai), Nearpod

### Forecasts and exposure studies

20. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 25-3031 Substitute teachers, short-term (2025: 556.1 thousand; 2035: 567.0 thousand; +2.0%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=25-3031&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
21. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 25-3031.00, human-rated β 0.083)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

22. [Boston Magazine — "TBT: Massachusetts Passes the Nation's First Compulsory Education Law" (1852)](https://www.bostonmagazine.com/education/2018/05/17/tbt-compulsory-education-massachusetts/), Boston Magazine
23. [Social Welfare History Project — "Horace Mann And The Creation Of The Common School" (urban school system professionalization, 1870s-1880s)](https://socialwelfare.library.vcu.edu/programs/education/horace-mann-creation-common-school/), Social Welfare History Project / VCU
24. [Tedium — "TV Cart History: The Cart That Brought the Boob Tube to the Classroom" (Bretford 1957 invention, cultural history)](https://tedium.co/2023/01/28/school-audiovisual-cart-history/), Tedium
25. [Brookings Institution — "America faces a substitute teacher shortage -- and disadvantaged schools are hit hardest" (11.8 days average absence per teacher per school year)](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/america-faces-a-substitute-teacher-shortage-and-disadvantaged-schools-are-hit-hardest/), Brookings Institution
26. [TIME — "Schools Are Struggling With a Substitute Teacher Shortage" (pandemic impact: 20% unfilled requests, Oregon substitute pool collapse)](https://time.com/6121336/substitute-teacher-shortage-pandemic/), TIME
27. [K-12 Dive — "How has substitute teacher staffing changed since the pandemic?" (wage increase data: $15.50 to $18.40/hr, 80% of large districts raised pay)](https://www.k12dive.com/news/substitute-staffing-challenges-staffed-up/700166/), K-12 Dive

### Predecessors & successors

28. [BLS Monthly Labor Review 2023 — "Substitute teachers needed: closing the gap on supply versus demand"](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/beyond-bls/substitute-teachers-needed-closing-the-gap-on-supply-versus-demand.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
29. [Edustaff — "Teacher Shortages in 2025: What the Data Revealed and What 2026 Will Demand"](https://edustaff.org/blog/teacher-shortages-in-2025-what-the-data-revealed-and-what-2026-will-demand/), Edustaff
30. [K-12 Dive — "How has substitute teacher staffing changed since the pandemic?" (38% of subs interested in full-time certification)](https://www.k12dive.com/news/substitute-staffing-challenges-staffed-up/700166/), K-12 Dive

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [O\*NET 30.3 — Substitute Teachers, Short-Term (25-3031.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/25-3031.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS OEWS 2024 — Substitute Teachers, Short-Term (510,100 employed, $38,470 median annual)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes253031.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS Monthly Labor Review 2023 — Substitute teachers needed: closing the gap on supply vs. demand](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/beyond-bls/substitute-teachers-needed-closing-the-gap-on-supply-versus-demand.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Edustaff — Teacher Shortages in 2025: What the Data Revealed and What 2026 Will Demand](https://edustaff.org/blog/teacher-shortages-in-2025-what-the-data-revealed-and-what-2026-will-demand/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Learning Policy Institute — One in eight teaching positions vacant or under-certified, 2025](https://www.weareteachers.com/teacher-shortage-statistics/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [EdWeek (Oct 2025) — AI Won't Replace Teachers, But Teachers Who Use AI Will Change Teaching](https://www.edweek.org/technology/opinion-ai-wont-replace-teachers-but-teachers-who-use-ai-will-change-teaching/2025/10), accessed 2026-06-03
- [MagicSchool AI — Lesson Plan Generator (94% of users report 7+ hours saved per week)](https://www.magicschool.ai/tools/lesson-plan), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Brisk Teaching — 2M+ teachers, 20,000 school districts; Sub Plan Generator](https://www.briskteaching.com/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Nearpod — AI Create: lesson generator for interactive classroom activities](https://nearpod.com/ai), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.