# Musicians and Singers

US SOC code 27-2042. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/27-2042

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **36,180** US musicians and singers. Median pay was an estimated **$48,180** a year in 2010. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **38,350**, in May 2024. The last full technology era for musicians and singers: AIVA + Amper + Jukedeck, 2016 to 2023. First-generation AI composition tools primarily affected the production-music and library-music market: a segment that had already employed many session musicians to record generic background tracks.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects little or no change in employment from 2025 to 2035 (+0.3%). Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=27-2042&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **13.3%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.074** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.074. BLS counted **39,260** of these jobs in May 2013 and **36,180** in May 2025. The count moved sharply in one step, May 2020 to May 2021, when BLS changed how it estimates these counts, so no change is derived here.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Musicians and Singers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1865
- Latest US employment: 36,180 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $48,180 (2010, estimate). Source: Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [6]
- Outlook: +0.3% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [22]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 84,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1900 [1] |
| 1930 | 165,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1930 [2] |
| 1960 | 148,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Monthly Labor Review [3] |
| 1996 | n/a | $18,720 (estimate) | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [6] |
| 2000 | 139,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [4] |
| 2003 | 50,600 | $37,380 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 52,000 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 50,410 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 46,600 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 47,520 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 47,030 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 47,260 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 43,350 | $48,180 (estimate) | BLS OEWS May 2010 (employment) [5]; Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (pay) [6] |
| 2011 | 42,530 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 42,100 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 39,260 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 38,900 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 37,090 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 40,110 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 40,170 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 41,680 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 41,130 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 34,770 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 24,080 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 31,750 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 35,520 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 38,350 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 36,180 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (59)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA — 1900 Census occupational data; "musicians and teachers of music" historical category](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/9050occup.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. [U.S. Census Bureau, Comparative Occupation Statistics for the United States, 1930 and 1940 — occupation 14 'Musicians and music teachers': 165,044 gainful workers (1930)](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1940/population-occupation/00312147ch1.pdf), U.S. Census Bureau
3. [BLS Monthly Labor Review — historical occupation series; secondary estimate based on AFM membership trajectory](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/), Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Musicians and Singers (historical employment context, circa 2000)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/entertainment-and-sports/musicians-and-singers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Musicians and Singers (1996-97 edition wage context); AFM scale rates](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/entertainment-and-sports/musicians-and-singers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics / AFM
7. [BLS OEWS May 2003, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

8. [Wikipedia — American Federation of Musicians (founding context, pre-union professional musician era)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Federation_of_Musicians), Wikipedia
9. [Wikipedia — Phonograph (invention 1877, Edison)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phonograph), Wikipedia
10. [Wikipedia — LP record (recorded music history context)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LP_record), Wikipedia
11. [Wikipedia — Vitaphone (sound film system, The Jazz Singer 1927, theater musician displacement)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitaphone), Wikipedia
12. [Wikipedia — James Caesar Petrillo (AFM president, response to recorded music displacement)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Caesar_Petrillo), Wikipedia
13. [Wikipedia — MTV (launched August 1, 1981; music video era, industry transformation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MTV), Wikipedia
14. [Wikipedia — Napster (launched June 1999; 80M users; $14.6B to $6.3B industry revenue collapse)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napster), Wikipedia
15. [Wikipedia — Music industry (US revenue $14.6B in 1999 to $6.3B in 2009)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_industry), Wikipedia
16. [Wikipedia — Spotify (founded 2006, US launch July 2011; royalty rate $0.007/stream 2013; 70% revenue to rights holders)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify), Wikipedia
17. [Wikipedia — Music streaming service (2008-2022 streaming revenue growth; per-stream economics)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_streaming_service), Wikipedia
18. [Wikipedia — AIVA (founded February 2016; first AI recognized by SACEM performing rights society)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIVA), Wikipedia
19. [Wikipedia — Suno AI (launched widely December 20, 2023; RIAA lawsuit June 2024; Warner Music $500M settlement November 2025)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suno_AI), Wikipedia
20. [Wikipedia — Udio (launched April 10, 2024; RIAA lawsuit June 2024; UMG settlement October 2025)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Udio), Wikipedia
21. [Holland & Knight: "First-of-Its-Kind AI Law Addresses Deep Fakes and Voice Clones" (Tennessee ELVIS Act, signed March 21, 2024, first state law protecting musicians from AI voice cloning)](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2024/04/first-of-its-kind-ai-law-addresses-deep-fakes-and-voice-clones), Holland & Knight

### Forecasts and exposure studies

22. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 27-2042 Musicians and singers (2025: 170.4 thousand; 2035: 170.9 thousand; +0.3%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=27-2042&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
23. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 27-2042 Musicians and Singers: probability 0.074, rank 155 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
24. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 27-2042.00, human-rated β 0.133)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

25. [Wikipedia — American Federation of Musicians (founded October 19, 1896, Cincinnati; 3,000 founding members)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Federation_of_Musicians), Wikipedia
26. [Wikipedia — Vitaphone (The Jazz Singer October 6, 1927; theater musician displacement)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitaphone), Wikipedia
27. [Wikipedia — Music Performance Trust Fund (established 1948 from AFM recording bans)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_Performance_Trust_Fund), Wikipedia
28. [Wikipedia — LP record (introduced June 21, 1948; 58% of dollar sales by 1958)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LP_record), Wikipedia
29. [Wikipedia — MTV (launched August 1, 1981; "Music Television" dropped from logo 2010)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MTV), Wikipedia
30. [Wikipedia — Napster (launched June 1, 1999; 80M users; music industry revenue $14.6B→$6.3B 1999-2009)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napster), Wikipedia
31. [Wikipedia — AIVA (founded February 2016; first AI recognized by SACEM as a composer)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIVA), Wikipedia
32. [Holland & Knight: "First-of-Its-Kind AI Law Addresses Deep Fakes and Voice Clones" (ELVIS Act signed March 21, 2024; unanimous 93-0 House/30-0 Senate vote; Class A misdemeanor penalty)](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2024/04/first-of-its-kind-ai-law-addresses-deep-fakes-and-voice-clones), Holland & Knight
33. [Wikipedia — Udio (RIAA lawsuit June 2024; UMG licensing settlement October 2025)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Udio), Wikipedia

### Predecessors & successors

34. [Wikipedia — American Federation of Musicians (founding context: church and theater musicians, 1896)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Federation_of_Musicians), Wikipedia
35. [Wikipedia — Vitaphone ("Reason for leaving due to Vitaphone" — theater musicians' displacement, 1927-1930)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitaphone), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-21
- [O\*NET 30.3 — US Department of Labor](https://www.onetcenter.org/database.html), accessed 2026-05-21

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.