# Physician Assistants

US SOC code 29-1071. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1071

Also called: PA, PA-c, Certified physician assistant, Surgical PA, Hospital medicine PA.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **162,150** US physician assistants, with median pay of **$135,880** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physician_assistant) of **3,000** from 1974, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for physician assistants: Telehealth platforms + point-of-care diagnostics, 2010 to 2020.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 21.1% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1071&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **12.5%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Physician Assistants employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1965
- Latest US employment: 162,150 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [3]
- Latest US median pay: $135,880 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Outlook: +21.1% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [15]

### All 26 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1974 | 3,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [1] |
| 1985 | 22,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [2] |
| 2000 | 58,000 (estimate) | $61,910 | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (employment) [2]; BLS OEWS 2000 (pay) [4] |
| 2003 | 60,030 | $65,670 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [3] |
| 2004 | 59,470 | $69,410 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [3] |
| 2005 | 63,350 | $72,030 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [3] |
| 2006 | 62,960 | $74,980 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [3] |
| 2007 | 67,160 | $78,450 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [3] |
| 2008 | 71,950 | $81,230 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [3] |
| 2009 | 76,900 | $84,420 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [3] |
| 2010 | 81,420 | $86,410 | BLS OEWS May 2010 (employment) [3]; BLS OEWS 2010 (pay) [6] |
| 2011 | 83,540 | $88,660 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [3] |
| 2012 | 83,640 | $90,930 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [3] |
| 2013 | 88,110 | $92,970 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [3] |
| 2014 | 91,670 | $95,820 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [3] |
| 2015 | 98,470 | $98,180 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [3] |
| 2016 | 104,050 | $101,480 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [3] |
| 2017 | 109,220 | $104,860 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [3] |
| 2018 | 114,710 | $108,610 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [3] |
| 2019 | 120,090 | $112,260 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [3] |
| 2020 | 125,280 | $115,390 | BLS OEWS May 2020 (employment) [3]; BLS OEWS May 2020 (pay) [6] |
| 2021 | 132,940 | $121,530 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [3] |
| 2022 | 140,910 | $126,010 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [3] |
| 2023 | 145,740 | $130,020 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [3] |
| 2024 | 155,540 | $133,260 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [3] |
| 2025 | 162,150 | $135,880 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [3] |

## Sources (80)

### Employment series

1. [Wikipedia — "Physician assistant" citing AAPA and NCCPA historical workforce data; first PANCE administered 1973](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physician_assistant), Wikipedia (citing AAPA / NCCPA)
2. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Physician Assistants (1984-85 edition historical employment context)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physician-assistants.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

4. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
6. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Physician Assistants (2010 median annual wage context)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physician-assistants.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

7. [AAPA — "History of the PA Profession" (early practice model, supervision requirements, and clinical outcomes research)](https://www.aapa.org/about/), American Academy of Physician Assistants
8. [OBRA 1986 — Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986 (P.L. 99-509), extending Medicare Part B coverage to physician assistant services](https://www.congress.gov/bill/99th-congress/house-bill/5300), US Congress
9. [AAPA — "Reimbursement for PA Services" (history of Medicare and Medicaid PA billing)](https://www.aapa.org/advocacy/health-policy/medicaid-and-medicare/), American Academy of Physician Assistants
10. [ONC — "Health IT Legislation" (HITECH Act 2009, EHR meaningful use incentive program, $27B in adoption payments)](https://www.healthit.gov/topic/laws-regulation-and-policy/health-it-legislation), Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology
11. [Butterfly Network — "Point-of-care ultrasound democratization" (handheld ultrasound enabling bedside imaging by non-radiologists, 2018 launch)](https://www.butterflynetwork.com/our-mission), Butterfly Network
12. [Telehealth.HHS.gov — "Telehealth policy changes after COVID-19" (ACA-era expansion context)](https://telehealth.hhs.gov/providers/policy-changes-during-the-covid-19-public-health-emergency), US Department of Health and Human Services
13. [Microsoft / Nuance — "DAX Copilot: AI-powered ambient clinical documentation" (30-50% documentation time reduction in clinical trials)](https://www.nuance.com/healthcare/ambient-clinical-intelligence.html), Microsoft / Nuance
14. [Abridge — "Generative AI for clinical documentation" (health system partnerships, UCSF/Yale/Duke deployments)](https://www.abridge.com/), Abridge

### Forecasts and exposure studies

15. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 29-1071 Physician assistants (2025: 168.9 thousand; 2035: 204.6 thousand; +21.1%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1071&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
16. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 29-1071.00, human-rated β 0.125)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

17. [Wikipedia — "Physician assistant" (Duke 1965 founding, Eugene Stead, Navy Corpsmen first cohort)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physician_assistant), Wikipedia (citing Duke University Medical Center history)
18. [AAPA — "About AAPA" (founding 1968, advocacy for state licensing frameworks)](https://www.aapa.org/about/), American Academy of Physician Assistants
19. [NCCPA — "NCCPA History" (first PANCE 1973, founding of national certification framework for physician assistants)](https://www.nccpa.net/), National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants
20. [US Congress — Health Professions Educational Assistance Act of 1977 (P.L. 94-484, federal funding for PA training programs)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/94th-congress/senate-bill/3239), US Congress
21. [OBRA 1986 (P.L. 99-509) — Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, Section 9307: Medicare Part B coverage for physician assistant services in hospitals and nursing facilities](https://www.congress.gov/bill/99th-congress/house-bill/5300), US Congress
22. [Wikipedia — "Physician supply" (ACA expanded coverage for ~32 million Americans, driving physician shortage projections; AAMC estimated shortage of 91,500 physicians by 2020)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physician_supply), Wikipedia (citing AAMC / ACA physician-shortage research)
23. [BLS National Employment Matrix — 29-1071 Physician Assistants (2024-34 projections: +20.4% growth, 162,700 → 195,800)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1071&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Predecessors & successors

24. [Wikipedia — "Physician assistant" (first PA class: four Navy Hospital Corpsmen, Duke 1965)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physician_assistant), Wikipedia (citing Duke University / AAPA)

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Physician Assistants (29-1071.00): tasks, work activities, technology skills, employment data](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/29-1071.00), accessed 2026-05-23
- [BLS OOH — Physician Assistants: 168,300 employed 2024; +28% growth 2024-2034; 59,100 new jobs projected; median wage $130,020](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physician-assistants.htm), accessed 2026-05-23
- [AAPA 2025 Salary Survey — PA-C median total compensation $132,000; surgical specialties median $147,000; dermatology and hospital medicine fastest hiring growth](https://www.aapa.org/news-central/2025/06/aapa-releases-2025-salary-report/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [AAPA 2025 Clinician Survey — documentation burden is #1 PA job dissatisfier; 78% report shortened patient encounter time due to administrative demands; 62% interested in AI documentation tools](https://www.aapa.org/news-central/2025/04/aapa-clinician-survey-highlights-administrative-burden/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [AAPA Principles for the Integration of AI in PA Practice (2025) — PAs responsible for validating AI-generated clinical information; AI augments but does not replace PA clinical judgment or collaborative practice relationship](https://www.aapa.org/advocacy-central/policy-issues/artificial-intelligence/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Microsoft Dragon Copilot — rebranded March 2025; 750+ U.S. health systems; 70% documentation time reduction; supports all licensed clinicians including PAs and NPs](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/industry/healthcare/dragon-copilot/whats-new/3-4), accessed 2026-05-23
- [KLAS First Look Report — Abridge Ambient AI for Physicians/APPs 2026: 94.3/100 KLAS score; Best in KLAS Ambient AI 2025+2026; supports PA and NP workflows at UPMC, Mayo Clinic, Johns Hopkins](https://klasresearch.com/report/abridge-2026-ambient-ai-enhancing-physician-workflows/3997), accessed 2026-05-23
- [JAMA 2025 multi-site RCT — Ambient AI scribes reduced after-hours EHR documentation ("pajama time") by 62%; clinician cohort includes licensed APPs including PAs](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2826592), accessed 2026-05-23
- [AMA AI in Health Care position (2025) — licensed clinicians (including PAs under collaborative agreements) bear ultimate clinical responsibility for AI-assisted decisions](https://www.ama-assn.org/practice-management/digital-health/augmented-intelligence-medicine), accessed 2026-06-21
- [NEJM AI — ambient AI scribes reduce documentation burden 2-4 hours per clinical day; PA and APP workflow coverage in clinical studies 2025-2026](https://ai.nejm.org/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science): occupational LLM exposure framework](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Suki AI — 72% reduction in documentation time; 150+ health systems; integrates with Epic, Oracle Health, Athenahealth; purpose-built for PAs, NPs, and physicians (Healthcare IT News 2025)](https://www.suki.ai/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Surescripts 2025 Annual Impact Report — Prior Authorization Automation: 18-second median approval time; 34% automated approval rate; 68,000+ active prescribers at 42 health systems enabled](https://surescripts.com/insights/2025-annual-impact-report), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Notable Health — 80+ health systems including Providence Health; captures PROs via conversational AI pre-visit; auto-populates EHR intake, triggers clinical protocols, sends personalized AVS (HIMSS 2025)](https://www.notablehealth.com/), accessed 2026-05-23

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.