# Pediatricians, General

US SOC code 29-1221. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1221

Also called: Pediatrician, Pediatrics, Peds doctor, Peds physician, Pediatric physician.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **39,390** US general pediatricians, with median pay of **$210,040** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **42,960**, in May 2024. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://hekint.org/2018/03/15/origins-pediatrics-clinical-academic-specialty-united-states/) of **9,000** from 1930, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for general pediatricians: Point-of-care diagnostics + structured developmental screening, 2010 to 2021.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 1.5% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1221&ioType=o). One other published forecast is in the forecasts section of the page.

### AI exposure studies

- **36.7%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

## Pediatricians, General employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1860
- Latest US employment: 39,390 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [3]
- Latest US median pay: $210,040 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Outlook: +1.5% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [20]

### All 13 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1930 | 9,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Hektoen International [1] |
| 1970 | 17,950 (estimate) | n/a | Est., National Academies of Sciences [2] |
| 1975 | n/a | $50,100 (estimate) | Est., Health Affairs / PMC4192917 [4] |
| 1980 | 27,582 (estimate) | n/a | Est., National Academies of Sciences [2] |
| 1984 | n/a | $86,862 (estimate) | Est., Health Affairs / PMC4192917 [4] |
| 1990 | 36,519 (estimate) | n/a | Est., National Academies of Sciences [2] |
| 2019 | 29,740 | $175,310 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [3] |
| 2020 | 27,550 | $177,130 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [3] |
| 2021 | 33,620 | $170,480 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [3] |
| 2022 | 33,430 | $190,350 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [3] |
| 2023 | 34,870 | $198,690 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [3] |
| 2024 | 42,960 | $210,130 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [3] |
| 2025 | 39,390 | $210,040 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [3] |

## Sources (53)

### Employment series

1. [Hektoen International — "The origins of pediatrics as a clinical and academic specialty in the United States" (2018)](https://hekint.org/2018/03/15/origins-pediatrics-clinical-academic-specialty-united-states/), Hektoen International
2. [National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine — "The Primary Care Workforce" chapter (primary care physician counts 1970-1994)](https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/5152/chapter/8), National Academies of Sciences
3. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

4. [Health Affairs / PMC4192917 — "Physician incomes and work patterns across specialties: 1975 and 1983-84" (avg net income pediatrics 1975: $50,100)](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4192917/), Health Affairs / NCBI
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
6. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

7. [Hektoen International — "The origins of pediatrics as a clinical and academic specialty in the United States" (2018)](https://hekint.org/2018/03/15/origins-pediatrics-clinical-academic-specialty-united-states/), Hektoen International
8. [Penn Nursing / NHHC — "Late-Nineteenth and Early-Twentieth Century Pediatrics" (infant mortality ~135/1000 in 1911; one in seven babies died at the century's dawn)](https://www.nursing.upenn.edu/nhhc/home-care/late-nineteenth-and-early-century-pediatrics/), University of Pennsylvania Nursing History
9. [Children's Hospital of Philadelphia — "Vaccine History: Developments by Year" (DTP standardization 1940s, Salk polio vaccine 1955, Sabin OPV 1961-1963)](https://www.chop.edu/vaccine-education-center/science-history/vaccine-history/developments-by-year), Children's Hospital of Philadelphia
10. [Osmosis Blog — "A History of Pediatrics: From Ancient India to Modern Medical Specialty" (penicillin, DTP standardization, polio vaccine era)](https://www.osmosis.org/blog/a-history-of-pediatrics-from-ancient-india-to-modern-medical-specialty), Osmosis
11. [Yale School of Medicine — "Yale and the Birth of Modern Neonatal Intensive Care" (Louis Gluck, first NICU opened October 1960 at Yale New Haven Hospital)](https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/yale-and-the-birth-of-modern-neonatal-intensive-care/), Yale School of Medicine
12. [Pediatrix / Obstetrix — "Sixty years of neonatal intensive care: We've come a long way, baby!" (NICU history, 1960s-1980s expansion)](https://blog.pediatrix.com/sixty-years-of-neonatal-intensive-care), Pediatrix Medical Group
13. [NCBI / PMC1552060 — "Charting the use of electronic health records and other information technologies among child health providers" (EHR adoption rates among pediatricians)](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1552060/), NCBI / National Library of Medicine
14. [AAP — "Selecting an EHR" (pediatric EHR adoption history and core functionality requirements)](https://www.aap.org/en/practice-management/health-information-technology/selecting-an-ehr/), American Academy of Pediatrics
15. [AAP Bright Futures (4th edition, 2023 update) — developmental surveillance and structured screening tools (M-CHAT-R/F, ASQ, PSC, HEADSS) as standard of care at every well-child visit](https://www.aap.org/en/practice-management/bright-futures), American Academy of Pediatrics
16. [NCBI / PMC8521844 — "Association Between Proficiency and Efficiency in Electronic Health Records Among Pediatricians at a Major Academic Health System" (documentation burden in EHR-era pediatric practice)](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8521844/), NCBI / National Library of Medicine
17. [JAMA Pediatrics 2025 — AI in Well-Child Care survey: ambient documentation tools adopted at 38% of AAP-member practices; M-CHAT-R/F AI scoring flagged significantly more positive screens vs. paper-based administration](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics), JAMA Pediatrics / AMA
18. [AAP, AACAP, CHA — Declaration of a National Emergency in Child and Adolescent Mental Health (October 2021)](https://www.aap.org/en/advocacy/child-and-adolescent-healthy-mental-development/aap-aacap-cha-declaration-of-a-national-emergency-in-child-and-adolescent-mental-health/), American Academy of Pediatrics
19. [Cognoa Canvas Dx — FDA-cleared (de novo, October 2021) AI diagnostic aid for ASD; parent-submitted video analysis; reduces median ASD diagnosis timeline 18 months to under 6 months](https://cognoa.com/), Cognoa

### Forecasts and exposure studies

20. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 29-1221 Pediatricians, general (2025: 42.2 thousand; 2035: 42.9 thousand; +1.5%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1221&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
21. [Silvestre J, Seeger S, Reitman CA, "Workforce Projections on the Supply and Demand of General Pediatricians Across the United States: Identifying Deficiencies to 2037", Academic Pediatrics 26(3):103237 (2026), abstract: supply 62,250 to 55,840 (10.3% decrease), 2025 to 2037](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41666995/), Academic Pediatrics (Academic Pediatric Association)
22. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 29-1221.00, human-rated β 0.367)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

23. [Britannica — "Abraham Jacobi" (first lectures on childhood disease, 1860; coined term "pediatrics")](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Abraham-Jacobi), Encyclopaedia Britannica
24. [Hektoen International — "Origins of pediatrics as a clinical and academic specialty in the US" (Archives of Pediatrics 1884, APS founded 1888)](https://hekint.org/2018/03/15/origins-pediatrics-clinical-academic-specialty-united-states/), Hektoen International
25. [Penn Nursing / NHHC — "Late-Nineteenth and Early-Twentieth Century Pediatrics" (Children's Bureau 1912; Harriet Lane Home 1912)](https://www.nursing.upenn.edu/nhhc/home-care/late-nineteenth-and-early-century-pediatrics/), University of Pennsylvania Nursing History
26. [Wikipedia — American Board of Pediatrics (founding 1933, first certificates 1934)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Board_of_Pediatrics), Wikipedia
27. [Mayo Clinic — "History of polio: Outbreaks and vaccine timeline" (Salk vaccine licensed April 12, 1955; 25,000-30,000 children paralyzed annually at peak)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/history-disease-outbreaks-vaccine-timeline/polio), Mayo Clinic
28. [Yale School of Medicine — "Yale and the Birth of Modern Neonatal Intensive Care" (Louis Gluck, first NICU October 1960)](https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/yale-and-the-birth-of-modern-neonatal-intensive-care/), Yale School of Medicine
29. [AAP-AACAP-CHA Declaration of a National Emergency in Child and Adolescent Mental Health (October 19, 2021)](https://www.aap.org/en/advocacy/child-and-adolescent-healthy-mental-development/aap-aacap-cha-declaration-of-a-national-emergency-in-child-and-adolescent-mental-health/), American Academy of Pediatrics

### Predecessors & successors

30. [Hektoen International — "Origins of pediatrics as a clinical and academic specialty in the US" (GPs handled most child care prior to specialty differentiation)](https://hekint.org/2018/03/15/origins-pediatrics-clinical-academic-specialty-united-states/), Hektoen International
31. [Wikipedia — American Board of Pediatrics (founded 1933; first certification 1934)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Board_of_Pediatrics), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Pediatricians, General (29-1221.00): tasks, work activities, technology skills, knowledge domains, employment data](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/29-1221.00), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BLS OOH 2024-2034 — Physicians and Surgeons: Pediatricians median annual wage $198,420 (May 2024); +3% growth 2024-2034](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physicians-and-surgeons.htm), accessed 2026-05-24
- [AAP Policy Statement — Artificial Intelligence in Pediatric Practice (Pediatrics 2024): AI as decision support; pediatrician retains prescribing authority, malpractice liability, and developmental assessment responsibility; equity and algorithmic bias emphasized](https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/153/1/e2023064948/196287), accessed 2026-05-24
- [JAMA Pediatrics 2025 — AI in Well-Child Care survey: ambient documentation tools adopted at 38% of AAP-member practices; M-CHAT-R/F AI scoring flags significantly more positive screens vs. paper-based administration](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics), accessed 2026-05-24
- [AAP Bright Futures (4th edition, 2023 update) — developmental surveillance and structured screening tools (M-CHAT-R/F, ASQ, PSC) endorsed as standard of care at every well-child visit](https://www.aap.org/en/practice-management/bright-futures), accessed 2026-05-24
- [AMA AI in Health Care position paper (2023 updated 2025) — physicians bear ultimate clinical responsibility for AI-assisted decisions; AI tools are decision support, not autonomous actors](https://www.ama-assn.org/practice-management/digital-health/augmented-intelligence-medicine), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science): occupational LLM exposure framework](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Nabla Copilot — 45,000+ clinicians in 2025; pediatric SOAP note template captures developmental history, immunization status, and Bright Futures structure automatically; deployed at children's hospitals (Nabla.com 2025; Fierce Healthcare Apr 2025)](https://www.nabla.com/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Nuance Dragon Copilot — deployed at major children's hospital networks (Boston Children's, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia); 70% documentation time reduction (Microsoft Health & Life Sciences 2025)](https://www.nuance.com/healthcare/dragon-copilot.html), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Epic AI — GPT-4-powered MyChart In-Basket assistant drafts patient/parent message responses; pediatric practices report 25-35% message response time reduction (Healthcare IT News 2025; Epic.com 2025)](https://www.epic.com/software/ai/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [K Health — AI symptom checker for pediatrics trained on 2M+ de-identified pediatric encounters; deployed by Boston Children's Hospital Virtual Care for after-hours pediatric triage (K Health press release May 2024; Boston Children's Health Blog 2024)](https://khealth.com/pediatrics/), accessed 2026-05-24

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.