# Physicians, Pathologists

US SOC code 29-1222. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1222

Also called: Pathologist, Anatomic pathologist, Clinical pathologist, Surgical pathologist, Dermatopathologist.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **11,110** US pathologists, with median pay of **$312,400** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **12,320**, in May 2022. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.massgeneral.org/pathology/about/history) of **200** from 1892, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for pathologists: Whole-slide imaging and digital pathology, 1999 to 2021. Digital pathology expanded the geographic reach of pathologist expertise: a dermatopathologist in Boston could read slides from a community hospital in rural Montana.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 4.8% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1222&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **31.8%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

## Physicians, Pathologists employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1858
- Latest US employment: 11,110 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $312,400 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [9]
- Outlook: +4.8% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [22]

### All 13 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1892 | 200 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Massachusetts General Hospital [1] |
| 1936 | 1,500 (estimate) | n/a | Est., ASCP [2] |
| 1960 | 8,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Archives of Pathology and Laboratory… [3] |
| 1975 | n/a | $58,000 (estimate) | Est., PMC 4192917 [7] |
| 1980 | 14,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., JAMA Network Open / AAMC data [4] |
| 2000 | n/a | $180,000 (estimate) | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [8] |
| 2007 | 15,568 (estimate) | n/a | Est., JAMA Network Open / AAMC data [4] |
| 2019 | 21,292 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Reevaluation of the US Pathologist… [5] |
| 2021 | 11,010 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 12,320 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 11,020 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 11,800 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 11,110 | $312,400 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (48)

### Employment series

1. [Massachusetts General Hospital -- Department of Pathology History (full-time pathologists in Boston from 1892 onward)](https://www.massgeneral.org/pathology/about/history), Massachusetts General Hospital
2. [ASCP -- History and Impact: ASCP founded 1922; ABPath established 1936 with initial certifications in anatomic and clinical pathology](https://www.ascp.org/about-ASCP/history-and-impact), American Society for Clinical Pathology
3. [Archives of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine (2013) -- "Pathologist Workforce in the United States: I. Development of a Predictive Model to Examine Factors Influencing Supply" (training program data, 1926-2013)](https://meridian.allenpress.com/aplm/article/137/12/1723/186010/Pathologist-Workforce-in-the-United-States-I), Archives of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine / College of American Pathologists
4. [Trends in US and Canadian Pathologist Workforces From 2007 to 2017 (PMC 2019) -- AAMC data cited for 2007 baseline of 15,568; earlier workforce described as peak-entry era 1960s-1980s](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6547243/), JAMA Network Open / AAMC data
5. [Reevaluation of the US Pathologist Workforce Size (PMC 7366184, 2020) -- AMA Masterfile: 21,292 active pathologists June 2019; 40% undercount in nationally published AAMC reports](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7366184/), Archives of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine / CAP
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

7. [PMC 4192917 -- "Physician incomes and work patterns across specialties: 1975 and 1983-84": hospital-based specialties including pathology excluded from main survey; AMA practice data context](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4192917/), Health Affairs / AMA data
8. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook -- Physicians and Surgeons (2000-era edition): pathologist compensation in context of physician specialty income survey data](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physicians-and-surgeons.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
9. [BLS OEWS May 2025, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

10. [PMC 2895866 -- "A brief history of pathology": Virchow's Cellularpathologie (1858) and its transformation of pathology practice; microscopy as the defining instrument of the new specialty](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2895866/), Diagnostic Pathology / BioMed Central
11. [Wikipedia -- Rudolf Virchow: cellular pathology, microscopy, influence on American pathology through William Welch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_Virchow), Wikipedia
12. [Massachusetts General Hospital -- Department of Pathology History: full-time pathologists from 1892; clinical laboratory proliferation 1890s-1920s](https://www.massgeneral.org/pathology/about/history), Massachusetts General Hospital
13. [ASCP -- History and Impact: ASCP founded 1922; by the 1920s, over 3,000 hospitals reported incorporating clinical laboratories](https://www.ascp.org/about-ASCP/history-and-impact), American Society for Clinical Pathology
14. [ABPath -- Mission and History: American Board of Pathology first met July 19, 1936 in Chicago; founded under ABMS and AMA approval](https://abpath.org/about-us/), American Board of Pathology
15. [CAP -- Historical Timeline: College of American Pathologists founded December 1946; CAP Inspection and Accreditation Program 1962](https://www.cap.org/about-the-cap/historical-timeline), College of American Pathologists
16. [Hologic -- ThinPrep Pap Test history: FDA approved May 20, 1996; most widely used Pap test in the world; 170+ published studies demonstrating benefits over conventional smear](https://www.hologic.com/hologic-products/collection-devices/thinprep-pap-test), Hologic
17. [Foundation Medicine -- FoundationOne CDx: FDA-approved companion diagnostic; board-certified pathologists review every specimen before CGP sign-out; 1.5M+ reports reviewed (FoundationMedicine.com 2025)](https://www.foundationmedicine.com/department-pathology), Foundation Medicine
18. [Tissuepathology.com -- "Innovation Hub: From Garage to State-of-the-Art Facility, Leica Biosystems Aperio Pioneers Digital Pathology" (Aperio founded 1999; Leica acquisition 2012; 1,100 systems at acquisition)](https://tissuepathology.com/2019/09/17/innovation-hub-from-garage-to-state-of-the-art-facility-leica-biosystems-aperio-pioneers-digital-pathology/), Tissuepathology.com
19. [News Medical -- History of Digital Pathology: WSI scanners commercially available from late 1990s; digital pathology realizing full potential in late 2000s](https://www.news-medical.net/life-sciences/History-of-Digital-Pathology.aspx), News Medical Life Sciences
20. [Paige.ai -- Paige Prostate Detect: first FDA-authorized AI in digital pathology (de novo 2021); 70% reduction in diagnostic errors; 65.5% faster turnaround; +8pp sensitivity (88.7% to 96.6%)](https://www.paige.ai/diagnostic-ai), Paige AI
21. [PMC 12468387 (2025) -- "The Rise of AI-Assisted Diagnosis: Will Pathologists Be Partners or Bystanders?": no AI cleared as autonomous diagnostician; pathologist integrative sign-out is irreplaceable; AI reduces routine review burden](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12468387/), PMC

### Forecasts and exposure studies

22. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 29-1222 Physicians, pathologists (2025: 11.8 thousand; 2035: 12.4 thousand; +4.8%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1222&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
23. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 29-1222.00, human-rated β 0.318)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

24. [Wikipedia -- Rudolf Virchow: "Die Cellularpathologie" 1858; Virchow's influence on American pathology via William Welch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_Virchow), Wikipedia
25. [ASCP -- History and Impact: founded 1922 by 39 physicians; BOC certifications from 1928; 500,000+ medical laboratory professionals certified](https://www.ascp.org/about-ASCP/history-and-impact), American Society for Clinical Pathology
26. [ABPath -- Mission and History: first meeting July 19, 1936 in Chicago; established under ABMS and AMA Council on Medical Education approval](https://abpath.org/about-us/), American Board of Pathology
27. [CAP -- Historical Timeline: founded December 12-13, 1946; first president Frank Hartman; Inspection and Accreditation Program 1962](https://www.cap.org/about-the-cap/historical-timeline), College of American Pathologists
28. [Trends in US and Canadian Pathologist Workforces 2007-2017 (PMC 6547243, 2019): -17.5% workforce decline; cancer cases per pathologist +41.7%; largest specialty workforce decline 2007-2017](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6547243/), JAMA Network Open
29. [CAP newsroom -- "New Research Shows 40% Pathology Workforce Undercount in Nationally Published Reports" (July 2020); PMC 7366184 (2020)](https://newsroom.cap.org/archive/all/new-research-led-by-cap-members-shows-a-40--pathology-workforce-undercount-in-nationally-published-r/s/2c434888-42d8-41a8-850c-066ba4bc4805), College of American Pathologists
30. [Paige.ai -- "First FDA De Novo Authorization for AI in Digital Pathology" (September 2021): Paige Prostate Detect; first AI software cleared for primary diagnosis in pathology history](https://www.paige.ai/diagnostic-ai), Paige AI

### Predecessors & successors

31. [MGH Pathology History -- full-time pathologists from 1892; prior era was part-time clinical physicians performing autopsies and tissue examination](https://www.massgeneral.org/pathology/about/history), Massachusetts General Hospital
32. [ABPath -- Mission and History: pathology residency programs and the ABPATH certification pathway](https://abpath.org/about-us/), American Board of Pathology
33. [BLS OOH -- Medical and Health Services Managers: +29% projected growth 2024-2034; pathologist-executives lead digital pathology AI governance at health systems](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/medical-and-health-services-managers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
34. [The Pathologist -- "The Diagnostic Shift: AI in Action" (July 2025): agentic AI agents in pilot at academic centers; computational pathology researchers building next-generation diagnostic tools](https://www.thepathologist.com/issues/2025/articles/july/the-diagnostic-shift-ai-in-action/), The Pathologist

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Physicians, Pathologists (29-1222.00): tasks, work activities, technology skills, knowledge domains, employment data](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/29-1222.00), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BLS OOH 2024-2034 — Physicians and Surgeons: ~12,600 pathologists; median wage $239,200+/year; +3-4% growth 2024-2034; ~400 annual openings](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physicians-and-surgeons.htm), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Paige Prostate Detect — first FDA-authorized AI in digital pathology (2021 de novo); 70% reduction in diagnostic errors; 65.5% faster turnaround; +8pp sensitivity (88.7% → 96.6%); Archives of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine 2025 pivotal study](https://www.paige.ai/diagnostic-ai), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Ibex Prostate Detect — FDA 510(k) cleared January 2025; AI-assisted prostate cancer detection in biopsy tissue; case- and slide-level alerts with heatmaps; first Ibex FDA clearance (Medical Laboratory Observer Feb 2025)](https://ibexmedical.com/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [PathAI AISight Dx — FDA 510(k) cleared primary diagnosis IMS; PCCP clearance for scanner compatibility expansion; deployed at Northwestern Medicine, Moffitt Cancer Center, and European laboratory groups (PathAI press releases 2025)](https://www.pathai.com/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Proscia Concentriq AP-Dx — FDA 510(k) cleared; 32,000 patients diagnosed daily as of July 2025 (400% YoY growth); 100+ LIS integrations including Epic Beaker; 2026 KLAS Best in KLAS award (Proscia press releases 2025)](https://proscia.com/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [CAP — AI in Pathology resources and guidance 2025: "AI will not replace pathologists — it will enhance their work and amplify their impact"](https://www.cap.org/education/practice-hubs/artificial-intelligence-ai-in-pathology/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [PMC 2025 — "The Rise of AI-Assisted Diagnosis: Will Pathologists Be Partners or Bystanders?": AI reduces routine review burden; pathologists' integrative sign-out role is irreplaceable; no AI cleared as autonomous diagnostician](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12468387/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science): occupational LLM exposure framework](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-24
- [The Pathologist — "The Diagnostic Shift: AI in Action" (July 2025) and "Six Pillars of AI Progress in Pathology" (Aug 2025): agentic IHC-ordering + report-drafting agents in pilot at academic centers](https://www.thepathologist.com/issues/2025/articles/july/the-diagnostic-shift-ai-in-action/), accessed 2026-05-24

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.