# Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric

US SOC code 29-1241. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1241

Also called: Ophthalmologist, Eye surgeon, Eye physician, Cataract surgeon, Retina specialist.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **8,950** US ophthalmologists (except pediatric), with median pay of **$300,080** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **12,580**, in May 2022. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_14/sr14_005.pdf) of **8,616** from 1968, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for ophthalmologists: Optical coherence tomography and digital retinal imaging, 1991 to 2018. OCT made ophthalmology data-intensive in ways that positioned it uniquely for AI augmentation: the retinal images are standardized, high-volume, and amenable to pattern recognition.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 4.5% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1241&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **33.8%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

## Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1851
- Latest US employment: 8,950 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Latest US median pay: $300,080 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [8]
- Outlook: +4.5% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [20]

### All 9 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1968 | 8,616 (estimate) | $37,000 (estimate) | Est., National Center for Health Statistics (employment) [1]; Est., AMA Socioeconomic Monitoring System (pay) [5] |
| 1983 | 12,400 (estimate) | n/a | Est., AAO Ophthalmology Manpower Studies Part… [2] |
| 2000 | n/a | $210,000 (estimate) | Est., BLS OOH [6] |
| 2003 | 15,800 (estimate) | n/a | Est., AAMC 2022 Physician Specialty Data… [3] |
| 2021 | 11,610 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | 12,580 | $219,810 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | 11,530 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | 12,110 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 8,950 | $300,080 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [4] |

## Sources (47)

### Employment series

1. [NCHS Vital and Health Statistics Series 14, No. 5 -- "Ophthalmology Manpower: A General Profile, United States 1968" (Koch 1972)](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_14/sr14_005.pdf), National Center for Health Statistics
2. [AAO Ophthalmology Manpower Studies Part IV -- "Ophthalmology manpower distribution 1983" (Ophthalmology 1983)](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6634069/), American Academy of Ophthalmology / PubMed
3. [AAMC 2022 Physician Specialty Data Report -- 18,948 active ophthalmologists in 2021 (baseline for back-interpolation); AAO workforce projections 2020 baseline ~21,250 FTE](https://www.aaojournal.org/article/S0161-6420%2823%2900677-2/fulltext), American Academy of Ophthalmology / Ophthalmology journal
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

5. [AMA Socioeconomic Monitoring System -- physician net income surveys, late 1960s (cited in White Coat Investor "Golden Age of Medicine" historical physician salary analysis)](https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/golden-age-of-medicine/), White Coat Investor / AMA historical data
6. [BLS OOH -- Physicians and Surgeons historical wages; MGMA Physician Compensation Survey 2000 (ophthalmology median $210,000 total compensation)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physicians-and-surgeons.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics / MGMA
7. [BLS OEWS May 2022, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
8. [BLS OEWS May 2025, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

9. [College of Optometrists -- "A brief history of the ophthalmoscope" (Helmholtz 1851; von Graefe's adoption; clinical impact on specialty formation)](https://www.college-optometrists.org/professional-development/college-journals/optometry-in-practice/volume-4-issue-2/a-brief-history-of-the-ophthalmoscope), College of Optometrists
10. [American Ophthalmological Society -- History (founded June 1864; founding context; specialty formation in the US)](https://www.aosonline.org/history), American Ophthalmological Society
11. [Wikipedia -- Slit lamp (history: Gullstrand 1911; Carl Zeiss commercialization; clinical adoption)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slit_lamp), Wikipedia
12. [PubMed -- "Allvar Gullstrand and the slit lamp 1911" (Acta Ophthalmologica 2013)](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23264115/), PubMed / Acta Ophthalmologica
13. [PMC -- "Sir Harold Ridley as the Pioneer of Intraocular Lenses: His Inspiration Drawn From World War II Pilots" (Cureus 2024)](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11453175/), PMC / Cureus
14. [National Inventors Hall of Fame -- "NIHF Inductee Charles Kelman Invented Cataract Surgery" (phacoemulsification history)](https://www.invent.org/inductees/charles-d-kelman), National Inventors Hall of Fame
15. [Lasker Foundation -- "Phacoemulsification for outpatient cataract surgery" (Kelman award; procedure history and impact)](https://laskerfoundation.org/winners/phacoemulsification-for-outpatient-cataract-surgery/), Albert and Mary Lasker Foundation
16. [Wikipedia -- Optical coherence tomography (history: Huang and Fujimoto 1991 MIT; clinical introduction; SD-OCT era)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_coherence_tomography), Wikipedia
17. [Ophthalmology Management -- "AI in Ophthalmology" (March 2025): OCT as the imaging foundation for AI diagnostic development in retina, glaucoma, and AMD](https://ophthalmologymanagement.com/issues/2025/march/ai-in-ophthalmology/), Ophthalmology Management
18. [Digital Diagnostics -- LumineticsCore (IDx-DR): FDA De Novo authorization April 2018; first autonomous AI diagnostic in the US; 87.2% sensitivity, 90.7% specificity; CPT 92229; 1,000+ primary care sites](https://www.digitaldiagnostics.com/fda-permits-marketing-of-lumineticscore-formerly-known-as-idx-dr-for-automated-detection-of-diabetic-retinopathy-in-primary-care/), Digital Diagnostics
19. [AAO / Ophthalmology journal -- "Ophthalmology Workforce Projections in the United States, 2020 to 2035" (Berkowitz et al. 2023): 30% projected shortage by 2035; supply declining, demand increasing from aging population](https://www.aaojournal.org/article/S0161-6420%2823%2900677-2/fulltext), American Academy of Ophthalmology

### Forecasts and exposure studies

20. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 29-1241 Ophthalmologists, except pediatric (2025: 9.7 thousand; 2035: 10.2 thousand; +4.5%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1241&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
21. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 29-1241.00, human-rated β 0.338)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

22. [American Ophthalmological Society -- "History" (founding date June 7, 1864; eighteen physicians; Edward Delafield as first president)](https://www.aosonline.org/history), American Ophthalmological Society
23. [ScienceDirect -- "Creation of the American Board of Ophthalmology: The Role of the American Ophthalmological Society" (Ophthalmology 2016)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0161642016304481), Ophthalmology / ScienceDirect
24. [BLS OOH -- Physicians and Surgeons: aging population and Medicare coverage as key demand drivers for ophthalmology](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physicians-and-surgeons.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
25. [White Coat Investor -- "Golden Age of Medicine -- Are Doctor Salaries Down?" (RBRVS impact on surgical specialties; cataract fee compression history)](https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/golden-age-of-medicine/), White Coat Investor
26. [Digital Diagnostics -- LumineticsCore FDA De Novo authorization April 2018: first autonomous AI diagnostic system in the US; 87.2% sensitivity, 90.7% specificity for referable DR](https://www.digitaldiagnostics.com/fda-permits-marketing-of-lumineticscore-formerly-known-as-idx-dr-for-automated-detection-of-diabetic-retinopathy-in-primary-care/), Digital Diagnostics
27. [AAO -- "Ophthalmology Workforce Projections in the United States, 2020 to 2035" (Ophthalmology 2023; HRSA model; 30% projected shortage; 70% adequacy by 2035)](https://www.aaojournal.org/article/S0161-6420%2823%2900677-2/fulltext), American Academy of Ophthalmology

### Predecessors & successors

28. [American Ophthalmological Society -- History (founding context; young American ophthalmologists trained in Vienna and Paris, 1850s-1860s)](https://www.aosonline.org/history), American Ophthalmological Society
29. [College of Optometrists -- "A brief history of the ophthalmoscope" (specialty formation after 1851)](https://www.college-optometrists.org/professional-development/college-journals/optometry-in-practice/volume-4-issue-2/a-brief-history-of-the-ophthalmoscope), College of Optometrists

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric (29-1241.00): tasks, work activities, knowledge domains, technology skills, employment data](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/29-1241.00), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BLS OOH — Physicians and Surgeons: 12,500 ophthalmologists employed in the U.S. (BLS 2024); median wage $239,200+/year; +3% employment growth 2024-2034](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physicians-and-surgeons.htm), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Digital Diagnostics / LumineticsCore (formerly IDx-DR) — FDA De Novo authorization April 2018; first autonomous AI diagnostic system in the U.S.; 87.2% sensitivity, 90.7% specificity; 1,000+ primary care sites; CPT 92229 reimbursement](https://www.digitaldiagnostics.com/fda-permits-marketing-of-lumineticscore-formerly-known-as-idx-dr-for-automated-detection-of-diabetic-retinopathy-in-primary-care/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Eyenuk EyeArt — FDA-cleared August 2020; 96% sensitivity for more-than-mild DR, 92% for vision-threatening DR; multi-camera compatible; recognized in AAO 2024 DR Preferred Practice Pattern](https://www.ophthalmologytimes.com/view/eyenuk-ceo-and-founder-gives-insight-into-fda-clearance-of-additional-camera-for-eyeart-ai), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Notal Vision SCANLY Home OCT — FDA De Novo authorization May 2024; Breakthrough Device; first patient self-operated OCT for nAMD monitoring; first FDA clearance of AI algorithm on OCT images; pivotal study: 336 patients, 6 U.S. retina clinics](https://piemagazine.org/notal-visions-ai-powered-home-oct-gains-fda-de-novo-authorization/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science): occupational LLM exposure framework](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Verana Health + AAO IRIS Registry — 3.5M ophthalmic images; Qdata Explorer for practice benchmarking; AI NLP for patient population characterization; MIPS reporting integration (Verana Health press releases 2025)](https://veranahealth.com/verana-health-introduces-significant-data-and-software-enhancements-to-support-ophthalmologic-research-and-treatment-optimization/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BMC Ophthalmology 2025 — "Comparative evaluation of AI-based IOL calculation formulas in highly myopic eyes": Hill-RBF 3.0, PEARL-DGS, and Kane significantly outperform Holladay 2 in MAE](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12886-025-04365-5?error=cookies_not_supported&code=9a8167cd-d670-4089-b827-6d48b203ec6c), accessed 2026-05-24
- [AMA AI in Health Care (2023 updated 2025): autonomous DR screening AI is narrow-scope population screening; ophthalmologist retains responsibility for diagnosis and treatment; comprehensive eye exam not replaceable by current AI](https://www.ama-assn.org/practice-management/digital-health/augmented-intelligence-medicine), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Physician AI Handbook — Ophthalmology (2025): structured review of deployed AI tools across DR screening, AMD monitoring, glaucoma, OCT analysis, and IOL calculation in clinical practice](https://physicianaihandbook.com/specialties/ophthalmology.html), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Ophthalmology Science 2025 — "Autonomous AI in Diabetic Retinopathy Testing: Lessons Learned on Successful Health System Adoption": real-world deployment analysis of LumineticsCore/IDx-DR, workflow integration, and ophthalmologist triage role for flagged results](https://www.ophthalmologyscience.org/article/S2666-9145%2825%2900233-7/fulltext), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Dragon Copilot (Microsoft) — ambient documentation at 750+ U.S. health systems; ICD-10 suggestion GA October 2025; ophthalmology clinic note templates for injection clinic, post-op cataract, and refractive consultation workflows (Nuance Healthcare 2025)](https://www.nuance.com/healthcare/dragon-copilot.html), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Abridge — KLAS Best in KLAS Ambient AI 2025 and 2026; ambient AI at 250+ health systems; supports ophthalmology clinic note templates; Epic Haiku/Canto integration (Abridge.com 2025)](https://www.abridge.com/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Ophthalmology Advisor 2025 — "Home OCT AI Algorithm Reliably Segments nAMD Biomarkers": AI segmentation accuracy across multiple patient sites; clinical implications for treat-and-extend anti-VEGF management](https://www.ophthalmologyadvisor.com/news/home-oct-ai-system-reliably-segments-biomarkers-in-macular-degeneration/), accessed 2026-05-24

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.