# Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric

US SOC code 29-1242. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1242

Also called: Orthopedic surgeon, Orthopaedic surgeon, Orthopedist, Ortho surgeon, Joint replacement surgeon.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **14,100** US orthopedic surgeons (except pediatric), with median pay of **$358,550** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **19,060**, in May 2022. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK588387/) of **16,600** from 1985, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for orthopedic surgeons: Robotic-assisted arthroplasty, 2006 to 2020.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 4% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1242&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **23.3%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

## Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1741
- Latest US employment: 14,100 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Latest US median pay: $358,550 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [7]
- Outlook: +4% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [23]

### All 12 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1984 | n/a | $175,000 (estimate) | Est., PMC / Health Care Financing Review [5] |
| 1985 | 16,600 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Dartmouth Atlas of Musculoskeletal… [1] |
| 1990 | 18,700 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Dartmouth Atlas of Musculoskeletal… [1] |
| 1995 | 21,400 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Dartmouth Atlas of Musculoskeletal… [1] |
| 2000 | n/a | $350,000 (estimate) | Est., BLS OOH [6] |
| 2008 | 25,464 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Becker's ASC Review [2] |
| 2018 | 30,141 (estimate) | n/a | Est., American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons [3] |
| 2021 | 16,260 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | 19,060 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | 14,820 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | 14,160 | n/a | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 14,100 | $358,550 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [4] |

## Sources (56)

### Employment series

1. [Dartmouth Atlas of Musculoskeletal Health Care -- "The Orthopaedic Surgery Workforce" (NCBI Bookshelf)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK588387/), Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice
2. [Becker's ASC Review -- "5 Statistics on the Orthopedic Surgeon Workforce" (citing AAOS 2008 Orthopaedic Surgeon Census: 25,464 active surgeons)](https://www.beckersasc.com/orthopedic-spine-driven-ascs/5-statistics-on-the-orthopedic-surgeon-workforce.html), Becker's ASC Review / AAOS
3. [AAOS Orthopaedic Practice in the US 2018 Census -- 30,141 orthopaedists on record](https://www.aaos.org/globalassets/quality-and-practice-resources/census/2018-census.pdf), American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

5. [PMC / Health Care Financing Review -- "Physician incomes and work patterns across specialties: 1975 and 1983-84" (orthopedics among highest-income specialties)](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4192917/), Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services / Health Care Financing Review
6. [BLS OOH -- Physicians and Surgeons: orthopedic surgery median annual wage (historical context); AAOS practice survey series](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physicians-and-surgeons.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. [BLS OEWS May 2025, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

8. [WHO was Nicolas Andry de Boisregard -- "Orthopedie" (1741); origin of the term orthopedics and the crooked-sapling symbol](https://www.orthopaedicsport.net/who-founded-orthopedic-surgery), Orthopaedic Sport Network
9. [History of Medicine -- "Ether anesthesia (1846) and antisepsis (Lister, 1867): enabling technologies for modern surgery" (Britannica)](https://www.britannica.com/science/history-of-medicine/World-War-II-and-after), Encyclopaedia Britannica
10. [Healio -- "20th century wars provided important orthopedic lessons" (World War I and II orthopedic advances)](https://www.healio.com/news/orthopedics/20120331/20th-century-wars-provided-important-orthopedic-lessons), Healio
11. [PMC -- "Orthopaedic Surgery Advances Resulting from World War II" (intramedullary nailing, Kuntscher 1940, fracture fixation advances)](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1888784/), PMC / National Library of Medicine
12. [Yale University Library Online Exhibitions -- "Charnley's Impact, Cemented in Time": Charnley low-friction arthroplasty 1962, PMMA cement, polyethylene socket design](https://onlineexhibits.library.yale.edu/s/hipreplacement/page/charnleysimpact), Yale University Library
13. [BioTrib -- "The Evolution of Total Knee Replacement": Gunston polycentric knee 1969, Insall-Burstein posterior-stabilized design 1978, Total Condylar Knee development 1974-1978](https://biotrib.eu/the-evolution-of-total-knee-replacement-tracing-the-path-of-surgical-advancement/), BioTrib
14. [Arthrometer -- "Exploring Dr Masaki Watanabe's Legacy In Arthroscopic Surgery" (Watanabe No. 21, 1959; first arthroscopic meniscectomy, 1962; International Arthroscopy Association, 1972)](https://arthrometer.com/masaki-watanabe/), Arthrometer
15. [Healio -- "Arthroscopy: Minimally invasive surgery changed the face of orthopedics" (North American adoption, fiber-optic era, sports surgery expansion)](https://www.healio.com/news/orthopedics/20120331/arthroscopy-minimally-invasive-surgery-changed-the-face-of-orthopedics), Healio
16. [McCollege -- "History of MRI: From Nuclear Magnetic Resonance to Modern Medical Imaging" (first clinically useful MRI image 1980; commercialization mid-1980s)](https://mccollege.edu/aas-in-magnetic-resonance-imaging-mri-technology/about-the-mri-technology-career/the-history-of-the-mri-development-of-medical-resonance-imaging/), McCollege
17. [AAOS Position Statement 1193 -- Artificial Intelligence (PDF): historical context on computer-assisted surgery as precursor to robotic platforms](https://www.aaos.org/globalassets/about/position-statements/1193---artificial-intelligence.pdf), American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons
18. [Stryker -- Mako SmartRobotics: FDA clearance timeline, procedure counts (3.4M+ by 2026), CT-based planning + haptic boundary enforcement](https://www.stryker.com/mako), Stryker
19. [AAOS Orthopaedic Surgeon Census -- workforce data and practice statistics (most recent: 2018 census, 30,141 surgeons on record)](https://www.aaos.org/quality/practice-management/aaos-orthopaedic-surgeon-census/), American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons
20. [Gleamer BoneView -- FDA 510(k) cleared; AI fracture detection on X-ray with 90%+ sensitivity; deployed at hospitals globally](https://www.gleamer.ai/copilot/boneview), Gleamer
21. [Augmedics -- xvision Spine System: first FDA-cleared AR surgical guidance (cleared 2019); 150+ U.S. hospitals by 2025; JAAOS 2024: 62% radiation reduction, 97.6% screw accuracy vs. 93.4% fluoroscopy](http://augmedics.com/xvision/), Augmedics
22. [Force Therapeutics -- digital musculoskeletal care platform; deployed at HSS, Mayo Clinic, 200+ orthopedic practices; KOOS/HOOS outcome tracking and surgeon benchmarking](https://www.forcetherapeutics.com/), Force Therapeutics

### Forecasts and exposure studies

23. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 29-1242 Orthopedic surgeons, except pediatric (2025: 15.5 thousand; 2035: 16.1 thousand; +4.0%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1242&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
24. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 29-1242.00, human-rated β 0.233)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

25. [Healio -- "AAOS pioneers fostered unity in the specialty": AOA founded 1887; the 1931 decision to create a more inclusive national organization led to AAOS formation in 1933](https://www.healio.com/news/orthopedics/20120325/aaos-pioneers-fostered-unity-in-the-specialty-focused-efforts-on-patient-care), Healio
26. [AAOS Now -- "ABOS and AAOS: Partners since the 1930s" (January 2022): AAOS founding history, 1931-1933](https://aaos.org/aaosnow/2022/jan/development/development02/), American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons
27. [ABOS -- "History": ABOS founded 1934; certification requirements published 1936; 3-year residency required from 1938 onward](https://www.abos.org/about/history/), American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery
28. [PMC / ResearchGate -- "Orthopaedic Surgery Advances Resulting from World War II" (published in Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research, 2004): intramedullary nailing, wound care, spinal surgery advances from WWII](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/8928575_Orthopaedic_Surgery_Advances_Resulting_from_World_War_II), ResearchGate / Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research
29. [PMC / Health Care Financing Review -- "Physician incomes and work patterns across specialties: 1975 and 1983-84": orthopedics highest specialty income in each work-pattern category in 1983-84 AMA survey](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4192917/), Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services / Health Care Financing Review
30. [PMC -- "Total Hip Arthroplasty: Past, Present, and Future. What Has Been Achieved?" (citing the 2007 Lancet "operation of the century" designation)](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6892902/), PMC / National Library of Medicine
31. [AAOS Position Statement 1193 -- Artificial Intelligence (PDF): FDA classification of surgical AI as SaMD; surgeon retains operative responsibility; robotic surgery as augmentation not autonomous surgery](https://www.aaos.org/globalassets/about/position-statements/1193---artificial-intelligence.pdf), American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons

### Predecessors & successors

32. [ABOS -- History: "ABOS was founded in 1934 as a private, voluntary, autonomous organization"; before 1934 board certification, orthopedics was a general surgery subspecialty interest rather than a credentialed separate specialty](https://www.abos.org/about/history/), American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery
33. [AAOS Now -- "AAOS led orthopedic specialty's educational efforts": fellowship subspecialty training formalized in the 1980s as arthroplasty, arthroscopy, and spine surgery drove subspecialization](https://www.healio.com/news/orthopedics/20120331/aaos-led-orthopedic-specialty-s-educational-efforts), Healio / AAOS
34. [BLS OOH -- Medical and Health Services Managers: +29% employment projected 2024-2034; orthopedic surgeons with administrative experience well positioned for surgical service line leadership roles](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/medical-and-health-services-managers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
35. [AAOS Orthopaedic Surgeon Census -- workforce data documenting surgeons in industry, academic, and private practice roles including transitions to device manufacturer positions](https://www.aaos.org/quality/practice-management/aaos-orthopaedic-surgeon-census/), American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons
36. [AAOS -- American Joint Replacement Registry (AJRR): captures 4M+ U.S. TKA/THA procedures; academic orthopedic surgeons transition to outcomes research roles leveraging registry data](https://www.aaos.org/registries/american-joint-replacement-registry/), American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric (29-1242.00): tasks, work activities, knowledge domains, technology skills, employment data](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/29-1242.00), accessed 2026-05-24
- [BLS OOH — Physicians and Surgeons: orthopedic surgery median annual wage \>$500,000 (AAOS 2024 Orthopedic Surgeon Survey); +3% employment growth 2024-2034](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physicians-and-surgeons.htm), accessed 2026-05-24
- [AAOS AI Position Statement 2024-2025 — AI tools as clinical decision support; surgeon retains operative responsibility; FDA classification of surgical AI as SaMD](https://www.aaos.org/aaosnow/2026/may/research/research01/), accessed 2026-06-21
- [AAOS American Joint Replacement Registry — largest national registry for total joint replacement; 3M+ procedures; national benchmarking for surgeon-level revision and complication rates; robotic surgery adoption tracked across participating centers (AAOS AJRR 2025)](https://www.aaos.org/registries/american-joint-replacement-registry/), accessed 2026-06-21
- [JBJS 2023 — "Robotic-Assisted TKA Outcomes at 5 Years (Multicenter RCT)": Mako TKA achieves 96.6% limb alignment within 3° vs. 80.3% manual; 5-year aseptic revision rate 0.8% robotic vs. 2.1% conventional](https://journals.lww.com/jbjsjournal), accessed 2026-05-24
- [JAAOS 2024 — "Augmented Reality Navigation in Spine Surgery (xvision)": 62% radiation exposure reduction; pedicle screw accuracy 97.6% vs. 93.4% fluoroscopy within 2mm](https://journals.lww.com/jaaos), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science): occupational LLM exposure framework](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-24
- [AMA AI in Health Care position paper (2023 updated 2025): surgical AI remains decision support; surgeon bears ultimate operative responsibility regardless of robotic assistance](https://www.ama-assn.org/amaone/augmented-intelligence-ai), accessed 2026-06-21
- [McKinsey — The Economic Potential of Generative AI in Healthcare (2023 updated 2025): surgical robotics and AI-assisted planning among fastest-growing near-term investment categories in medical devices](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-in-healthcare), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Dragon Copilot (Microsoft) — ambient documentation for surgical clinic encounters and post-op visits; deployed at 750+ U.S. health systems; ICD-10 suggestion GA October 2025; orthopedic surgery workflows supported (Nuance Healthcare 2025)](https://www.nuance.com/healthcare/dragon-copilot.html), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Abridge — KLAS Best in KLAS Ambient AI 2025 and 2026; ambient physician documentation at 250+ health systems; supports orthopedic clinic note templates for arthroplasty, sports medicine, and trauma encounters (Abridge.com 2025)](https://www.abridge.com/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Stryker Mako SmartRobotics — 3.4M+ procedures performed by 2026; CT-based 3D planning + haptic boundary enforcement; FDA-cleared for TKA, THA, UKA; AAOS 2024 robotic surgery adoption data](https://www.stryker.com/mako), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Zimmer Biomet ROSA Knee + ROSA Hip — FDA-cleared; 1,000+ hospitals globally; intraoperative kinematic data for soft tissue balancing in TKA; acetabular cup AI guidance for THA (Zimmer Biomet Q4 2025 earnings)](https://www.zimmerbiomet.com/en/products-and-solutions/zb-edge/robotics.html), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Smith+Nephew CORI Surgical System — handheld robotics; no CT required; AI bone morphing intraoperatively; 200+ U.S. hospital customers Q4 2025](https://www.smith-nephew.com/en-us/products-and-technology/technology/robotics/cori), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Force Therapeutics — digital musculoskeletal care platform; AI-powered video exercise prescription + PROMIS/KOOS/HOOS outcome tracking; deployed at HSS, Mayo Clinic, 200+ orthopedic practices; outcome data feeds surgeon benchmarking dashboard (ForcTherapeutics.com 2025)](https://www.forcetherapeutics.com/), accessed 2026-05-24
- [Epic AI — post-op care gap alerts, follow-up scheduling automation, and patient outcome aggregation in Epic ortho workflow modules; used for population health reporting and payer quality metrics](https://www.epic.com/software/ai/), accessed 2026-05-24

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.