# First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives

US SOC code 33-1012. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/33-1012

Also called: Police sergeant, Police lieutenant, Police captain, Detective sergeant, Watch commander.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **154,610** US first-line supervisors of police and detectives, with median pay of **$106,040** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2012, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.britannica.com/topic/police/Early-police-in-the-United-States) of **11,000** from 1890, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for first-line supervisors of police and detectives: Body-worn cameras and digital evidence management, 2013 to 2022. BWC deployment increased supervisory workload substantially.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 3.3% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=33-1012&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **35.5%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1845
- Latest US employment: 154,610 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $106,040 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [7]
- Outlook: +3.3% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [15]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1890 | 11,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Britannica [1] |
| 1930 | 21,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wickersham Commission [2] |
| 1950 | n/a | $3,500 | BLS historical bulletin 1950 [6] |
| 1965 | 55,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Bulletin 1445 [3] |
| 1990 | 105,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Bureau of Justice Statistics [4] |
| 2003 | 101,740 | $62,350 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 96,080 | $64,430 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 91,320 | $65,570 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 89,170 | $69,310 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 91,510 | $72,620 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 92,840 | $75,490 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 99,900 | $76,500 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 102,200 | $78,260 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 102,040 | $77,890 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 99,860 | $78,270 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 101,320 | $79,190 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 101,420 | $80,930 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 100,370 | $82,090 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 100,200 | $84,840 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 104,860 | $87,910 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 116,660 | $89,030 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 121,340 | $91,090 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 122,310 | $92,970 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 128,230 | $99,330 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 131,860 | $96,290 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 138,140 | $101,750 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 153,130 | $105,980 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 154,610 | $106,040 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (77)

### Employment series

1. [Britannica — "Police: Early police in the United States" (1890-era municipal department scale and structure)](https://www.britannica.com/topic/police/Early-police-in-the-United-States), Encyclopaedia Britannica
2. [Wickersham Commission — Wikipedia: National Commission on Law Observance and Enforcement (1931); August Vollmer primary author of "The Police" volume](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wickersham_Commission), Wikipedia
3. [BLS Bulletin 1445 — "Salary Trends: Firemen and Policemen, 1924-64" (FRASER archive, US Department of Labor)](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bls/bls_1445_1965.pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRASER
4. [Bureau of Justice Statistics — "State and Local Police Departments, 1990" (NCJ-133284)](https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/slpd90.pdf), Bureau of Justice Statistics / US DOJ
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [BLS Bulletin 1445 — "Salary Trends: Firemen and Policemen, 1924-64" (1950 police salaries in cities over 250,000)](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bls/bls_1445_1965.pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRASER
7. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

8. [Time Magazine — "The History of Police in America and the First Force" (early police organization, 1845 NYPD founding)](https://time.com/4779112/police-history-origins/), Time
9. [Baltimore Police Museum — "History of Police in the US" (radio adoption, patrol car transition)](https://baltimorepolicemuseum.com/en/history-of-police-in-the-us), Baltimore Police Museum
10. [CompStat Wikipedia — history of data-driven policing and CAD antecedents in US law enforcement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CompStat), Wikipedia
11. [Business of Government — "The New York City Police Department's CompStat Model of Police Management" (IBM Center for the Business of Government)](https://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/CompStat.pdf), IBM Center for the Business of Government
12. [Police body camera — Wikipedia: US DOJ funding of BWC programs post-Ferguson 2014; Obama administration $263 million package; majority of large US departments using BWCs by 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_body_camera), Wikipedia
13. [COPS Office Dispatch January 2025 — "AI Tools That Write Police Reports: Workflow, Supervisor Review Requirements, and Accountability"](https://cops.usdoj.gov/html/dispatch/01-2025/ai_reports.html), US DOJ Office of Community Oriented Policing Services
14. [Axon Draft One — AI-powered police report drafting from body-camera audio; officer and supervisor review required before filing](https://www.axon.com/products/draft-one), Axon Enterprise

### Forecasts and exposure studies

15. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 33-1012 First-line supervisors of police and detectives (2025: 160.2 thousand; 2035: 165.4 thousand; +3.3%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=33-1012&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
16. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 33-1012.00, human-rated β 0.355)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

17. [Britannica — "Police: Early police in the United States" (1845 NYPD founding, Metropolitan Police model)](https://www.britannica.com/topic/police/Early-police-in-the-United-States), Encyclopaedia Britannica
18. [History of the New York City Police Department — Wikipedia (call box system, early communication tools)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_New_York_City_Police_Department), Wikipedia
19. [August Vollmer Wikipedia — Vollmer's role in the Wickersham Commission, "The Police" volume (1931), professionalization movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_Vollmer), Wikipedia
20. [CompStat Wikipedia — creation 1994, NYPD, Bill Bratton and Jack Maple; 2011 PERF survey 79% adoption rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CompStat), Wikipedia
21. [COPS Office — "History of the COPS Office" (COPS timeline, 1994 establishment, $7.6B in grants 1994-2001)](https://cops.usdoj.gov/copstimeline), US DOJ Office of Community Oriented Policing Services
22. [DOJ Report on the Ferguson Police Department (March 2015) — supervisor failures in use-of-force oversight and body-camera policy](https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/opa/press-releases/attachments/2015/03/04/ferguson_police_department_report.pdf), US Department of Justice
23. [COPS Office Dispatch January 2025 — "AI Tools That Write Police Reports: Workflow, Supervisor Review, and Accountability"](https://cops.usdoj.gov/html/dispatch/01-2025/ai_reports.html), US DOJ Office of Community Oriented Policing Services

### Predecessors & successors

24. [Time Magazine — "The History of Police in America and the First Force" (watch system antecedents)](https://time.com/4779112/police-history-origins/), Time
25. [BLS OOH — "Police and Detectives": most supervisors are promoted from within the ranks of patrol officers after passing competitive examinations](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/protective-service/police-and-detectives.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives (33-1012.00): tasks, work activities, knowledge domains, technology skills](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/33-1012.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS OES May 2024 — First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives (33-1012): 160,800 employed; median annual wage $105,980; projected +3% growth 2024-2034](https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes331012.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs: Labor market impact potential of LLMs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-05
- [COPS Office Dispatch Jan 2025 — AI tools that write police reports: workflow, supervisor review requirements, and accountability](https://cops.usdoj.gov/html/dispatch/01-2025/ai_reports.html), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Axon Draft One — AI-powered police report drafting from body-camera audio; side-by-side review; officer sign-off required](https://www.axon.com/products/draft-one), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Veritone Redact — AI-powered audio, video, and image redaction for law enforcement evidence disclosure](https://www.veritone.com/applications/redact/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Truleo — AI body-camera analytics: flags use of force, language, de-escalation; ~$50k/year; 1,000+ agency deployments; NYPD pilot 2024](https://truleo.co/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [PropPublica 2024 — Police Departments Are Turning to AI to Sift Through Millions of Hours of Unreviewed Body-Cam Footage](https://www.propublica.org/article/police-body-cameras-video-ai-law-enforcement), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.