# Correctional Officers and Jailers

US SOC code 33-3012. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/33-3012

Also called: Correctional officer, Corrections officer, Jailer, Detention officer, CO.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **380,500** US correctional officers and jailers, with median pay of **$58,940** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **457,550**, in May 2010. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/p16.pdf) of **35,000** from 1950, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for correctional officers and jailers: COMPAS risk-assessment algorithm + ProPublica 2016 exposé + Wisconsin v. Loomis 2016 (2007 to 2018). Risk-assessment algorithms did not directly reduce correctional officer headcount; they reshaped how officers understood their charges.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 7.4% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=33-3012&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **23.9%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.6** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.6. BLS counted **432,680** of these jobs in May 2013 and **380,500** in May 2025 (-12%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Correctional Officers and Jailers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1817
- Latest US employment: 380,500 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $58,940 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [14]
- Outlook: -7.4% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [32]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 43201)
  - Employment, 2020: 24,605. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [9]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 43201 Correctional service officers, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$85,000. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [17]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 43201 Correctional service officers, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.
- **United Kingdom** (UK SOC 3314)
  - Employment, 2025: 9,000. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [10]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14): employee jobs in SOC 3314 Prison service officers (below principal officer), United Kingdom, 2025 (ASHE "number of jobs", thousands x1000; excludes self-employment). Open Government Licence v3.0.
  - Median pay, 2025: £31,603. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [18]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14.7a): median gross annual pay for all employee jobs in SOC 3314 Prison service officers (below principal officer), United Kingdom, 2025. Open Government Licence v3.0.
- **Australia** (ANZSCO 4421)
  - Employment, 2025: 20,100. Source: ABS Labour Force Survey [11]. ABS Labour Force Survey (Detailed), table EQ08: employed persons in ANZSCO 4421 Prison Officers, national (summed across sex and state/territory), annual average of 4 quarterly estimates.
  - Median pay, 2025: A$108,160. Source: ABS Employee Earnings May 2025 [19]. Annualised (x52) from A$2,080 median weekly earnings. ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025: median pay for full-time non-managerial employees paid at the adult rate, before tax. Surfaced via the Jobs and Skills Australia occupation profile.

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1950 | 35,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BJS [1] |
| 1972 | 100,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BJS [2] |
| 1980 | 180,000 (estimate) | $13,500 (estimate) | Est., BJS (employment) [3]; Est., Bureau of Labor Statistics (pay) [12] |
| 1990 | 282,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BJS [4] |
| 2000 | 405,360 | $31,170 | BLS OEWS 2000 [5] |
| 2003 | 417,420 | $33,160 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 409,580 | $33,600 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 411,080 | $34,090 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 417,810 | $35,760 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 431,980 | $36,970 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | n/a | $38,380 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [14] |
| 2009 | 455,350 | $39,050 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 457,550 | $39,040 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 448,740 | $38,990 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 434,870 | $39,040 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 432,680 | $39,550 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 434,420 | $39,780 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 427,790 | $40,530 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 431,600 | $42,820 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 428,870 | $43,540 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 415,000 | $44,330 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 423,050 | $45,180 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 405,870 | $47,410 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 392,600 | $47,920 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 363,250 | $49,610 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 351,420 | $53,300 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 365,380 | $57,970 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 380,500 | $58,940 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (114)

### Employment series

1. [BJS — "Prisoners in 2016" (NCJ-251149) and BJS Historical Corrections Statistics 1850-1984 (NCJ-102529): US prison population series showing ~166,000 in 1950; staffing-ratio extrapolation](https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/p16.pdf), Bureau of Justice Statistics
2. [BJS — Historical Corrections Statistics in the United States, 1850-1984 (NCJ-102529): prison population series and institutional capacity data for early 1970s](https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/102529NCJRS.pdf), Bureau of Justice Statistics
3. [BJS — Census of State and Federal Adult Correctional Facilities 1979 (NCJ-73982): correctional officer staffing in state and federal institutions; jail population and staffing from Annual Survey of Jails](https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/census-state-and-federal-correctional-facilities-2005), Bureau of Justice Statistics
4. [BJS — "Correctional Populations in the United States, 1990" (NCJ-134946): total correctional populations and staffing overview for state, federal, and local institutions](https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/correctional-populations-united-states-1990), Bureau of Justice Statistics
5. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
8. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
9. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
10. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 3314, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2002](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2002/2002-table-14.zip), [2006](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2006consistentw_007methodology/2006-table-14.zip), [2010](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2010revised/2010-revised-table-14.zip), [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip), [2022](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), [2025](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip)
11. [ABS: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, table EQ08 (Employed persons by Occupation unit group, ANZSCO 2013), latest release](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/latest-release), Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Wage series

12. [Estimate based on BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 1980-81 correctional officer wage context; nominal wage approximately $6.50/hr for state prison officers in the early 1980s, with wide variance by state; inflation adjustment via BLS CPI-U calculator](https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
13. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
14. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
15. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
16. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
17. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
18. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 3314, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2002](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2002/2002-table-14.zip), [2006](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2006consistentw_007methodology/2006-table-14.zip), [2010](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2010revised/2010-revised-table-14.zip), [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip), [2022](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), [2025](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip)
19. [Jobs and Skills Australia: Prison Officers (ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025)](https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/data/occupation-and-industry-profiles/occupations/4421-prison-officers), Jobs and Skills Australia / Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Tool eras

20. [Auburn Correctional Facility — Wikipedia (Auburn Prison opened 1816-1817; the Auburn System of silent communal labor; Warden Elam Lynds; lockstep formation; striped uniform; influence on US and global prison design)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auburn_Correctional_Facility), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
21. [Eastern State Penitentiary — Wikipedia (opened 1829 in Philadelphia; solitary confinement system; competing model to Auburn; panopticon-influenced corridor design)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_State_Penitentiary), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
22. [American Correctional Association — Wikipedia (founded 1870 as National Prison Association; first congress in Cincinnati; Declaration of Principles authored by Enoch Cobb Wines; ACA Commission on Accreditation for Corrections founded 1974)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Correctional_Association), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
23. [American Jail Association — history of correctional supervision technology in US county jails and state prisons (two-way radio adoption, control-room development, CCTV integration in the post-WWII era)](https://www.americanjail.org/), American Jail Association
24. [Attica Prison riot — Wikipedia (September 9-13, 1971; 43 deaths; 33 inmates and 10 guards/employees; all but one guard and three inmates killed by law enforcement gunfire; $12M settlement with surviving employees 2005)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attica_Prison_riot), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
25. [Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 — Wikipedia: $9.7 billion in funding for prisons; truth-in-sentencing incentive grants; 100,000 new police officers; correctional infrastructure expansion that accelerated the mass-incarceration wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violent_Crime_Control_and_Law_Enforcement_Act), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
26. [ProPublica — "Machine Bias: There's Software Used Across the Country to Predict Future Criminals. And It's Biased Against Blacks." (May 23, 2016; COMPAS; Broward County; 7,000+ defendants; Black defendants labeled high-risk ~2× white defendants; 77% more likely flagged as violent)](https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal-sentencing), ProPublica
27. [Loomis v. Wisconsin — Wikipedia (Wisconsin Supreme Court 2016; COMPAS algorithm at sentencing; challenge on due process grounds; court upheld use as one factor; US Supreme Court declined review)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loomis_v._Wisconsin), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
28. [First Step Act — Wikipedia (signed December 21, 2018; required BOP risk-needs assessment within 180 days; PATTERN announced July 2019; civil rights concerns about racial disparities in PATTERN algorithm)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Step_Act), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
29. [Urban Institute — "First Step Act Risk Assessment" (PATTERN tool: predicts general and violent recidivism for all BOP inmates; multiple revisions 2019-2020 following civil rights critique; mandated use for programming allocation)](https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/justice-policy-center/projects/first-step-act-implementation), Urban Institute
30. [The Marshall Project / Associated Press — "A State-by-State Look at Coronavirus in Prisons" (398,627 prisoner infections, 2,715 deaths; 114,237 staff infections, 209 staff deaths, through June 2021)](https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/05/01/a-state-by-state-look-at-coronavirus-in-prisons), The Marshall Project / Associated Press
31. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Correctional Officers and Jailers (2024-34 projected employment change: -7%; decarceration trend and ongoing staffing pressure cited)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/protective-service/correctional-officers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Forecasts and exposure studies

32. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 33-3012 Correctional officers and jailers (2025: 397.8 thousand; 2035: 368.2 thousand; -7.4%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=33-3012&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
33. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 33-3012 Correctional Officers and Jailers: probability 0.6, rank 331 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
34. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 33-3012.00, human-rated β 0.239)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

35. [Auburn Correctional Facility — Wikipedia (Auburn Prison opened 1816-1817; Auburn System; Elam Lynds; lockstep; striped uniform; silent system; global influence on prison design)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auburn_Correctional_Facility), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
36. [American Correctional Association — Wikipedia (National Prison Association founded 1870 in Cincinnati; Declaration of Principles; ACA's ongoing role as the professional body and accrediting organization for US corrections)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Correctional_Association), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
37. [Attica Prison riot — Wikipedia (September 9-13, 1971; 43 deaths; 33 inmates and 10 guards/employees; all but one guard killed by law enforcement gunfire; $12M settlement with surviving corrections employees 2005)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attica_Prison_riot), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
38. [Rockefeller Drug Laws — Wikipedia (New York 1973; mandatory minimums of 15-to-life for possession or sale; national adoption as model; central driver of mass incarceration; reform began in New York 2009)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockefeller_Drug_Laws), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
39. [Pew Center on the States — "One in 100: Behind Bars in America 2008" (February 2008; 2.3 million incarcerated; 1 in 100 adults; 1 in 15 Black men over 18; US holds 5% of world population, 25% of prisoners)](https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/reports/2008/02/28/one-in-100-behind-bars-in-america-2008), Pew Center on the States
40. [ProPublica — "Machine Bias: There's Software Used Across the Country to Predict Future Criminals. And It's Biased Against Blacks." (May 23, 2016; COMPAS; Broward County; 7,000+ defendants analyzed; Black defendants labeled high-risk nearly 2× white defendants; 61% accuracy for violent predictions)](https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal-sentencing), ProPublica
41. [First Step Act — Wikipedia (signed December 21, 2018; PATTERN tool requirement; bipartisan criminal justice reform; DOJ PATTERN announcement July 2019; civil rights concerns about racial disparity)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Step_Act), Wikipedia / cited primary sources
42. [The Marshall Project / Associated Press — "A State-by-State Look at Coronavirus in Prisons" (June 2021 data; 398,627 prisoner infections; 2,715 prisoner deaths; 114,237 staff infections; 209 staff deaths; largest prison database of COVID data compiled)](https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/05/01/a-state-by-state-look-at-coronavirus-in-prisons), The Marshall Project / Associated Press
43. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Correctional Officers and Jailers (2024 edition; 2024-34 projected employment change -7%; approximately 26,500 annual openings)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/protective-service/correctional-officers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Predecessors & successors

44. [BJS — Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (LEMAS): veterans represent a disproportionate share of new correctional officer hires; post-service transition particularly common in states with large military installations](https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/law-enforcement-management-and-administrative-statistics-lemas), Bureau of Justice Statistics
45. [National Institute of Corrections — Topics in Corrections: Correctional Staffing (NIC curated collection on correctional staffing, including recruitment and hiring; security guard experience as a common entry pathway; correctional officer pay and benefits typically exceed security guard compensation)](https://nicic.gov/resources/topics/correctional-staffing), National Institute of Corrections

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [O\*NET 30.3 — Correctional Officers and Jailers (33-3012.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/33-3012.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Correctional Officers and Bailiffs (-7% projected 2024-2034, median wage $57,970)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/protective-service/correctional-officers.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [The Marshall Project — From Surveillance to Robot Guards: How AI Could Reshape Prison Life (Aug 2025)](https://www.themarshallproject.org/2025/08/30/ai-california-prison-machine-surveillance), accessed 2026-06-03
- [MIT Technology Review — An AI model trained on prison phone calls now looks for planned crimes (Dec 2025)](https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/12/01/1128591/an-ai-model-trained-on-prison-phone-calls-is-now-being-used-to-surveil-inmates/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Corrections1 — How AI can improve corrections incident reporting and reviews](https://www.corrections1.com/jail-management/rethinking-incident-reviews-in-corrections-through-data-and-ai), accessed 2026-06-03
- [ASIS International — A Cascading Crisis: U.S. Federal Prisons and Unsafe Understaffing (Mar 2026)](https://www.asisonline.org/security-management-magazine/articles/2026/03/corrections-security/unsafe-understaffing/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Prison Policy Initiative — Why jails and prisons cannot recruit their way out of the understaffing crisis (Dec 2024)](https://www.prisonpolicy.org/blog/2024/12/09/understaffing/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Safer Prisons Safer Communities — Prison Staffing Crisis By the Numbers (Oct 2024): state CO headcount fell 23% (2012-2023)](https://web.archive.org/web/20260410152619/https://saferprisonssafercommunities.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SaferPrisonsDataBrief_v3.pdf), accessed 2026-10-07
- [Motorola Solutions — Jail and Inmate Management (Flex Jail)](https://www.motorolasolutions.com/en_us/products/command-center-software/public-safety-software/jail-and-inmate-management.html), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Corrections1 — Harnessing AI and robotics to reinvent corrections](https://www.corrections1.com/technology/harnessing-ai-and-robotics-to-reinvent-corrections), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Prison Legal News — An AI Model from Securus Aims to Expand Phone Call Monitoring (Dec 2025)](https://www.prisonlegalnews.org/news/2025/dec/1/an-ai-model-from-securus-aims-to-expand-phone-call-monitoring/), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.