# Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria

US SOC code 35-2012. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/35-2012

Also called: Cafeteria cook, Dietary cook, School cook, Hospital cook, Institutional cook.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **441,050** US institution and cafeteria cooks, with median pay of **$37,450** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **448,260**, in May 2024, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/9050occup.shtml) of **200,000** from 1940, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for institution and cafeteria cooks: Sysco MyTrkr + US Foods Moxe, 2018 to 2024.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 2.8% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=35-2012&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **8.6%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.83** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.83. BLS counted **399,940** of these jobs in May 2013 and **441,050** in May 2025 (+10%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1885
- Latest US employment: 441,050 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $37,450 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [9]
- Outlook: +2.8% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [22]

### All 30 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1940 | 200,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., IPUMS USA [1] |
| 1946 | 240,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., USDA Food and Nutrition Service [2] |
| 1960 | n/a | $2,900 (estimate) | Est., Univ. of Missouri Libraries [7] |
| 1965 | 330,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [3] |
| 1980 | n/a | $8,500 (estimate) | Est., Univ. of Missouri Libraries [8] |
| 1990 | 380,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Compass Group [4] |
| 2000 | 414,100 | n/a | BLS OEWS 2000 [5] |
| 2003 | 406,010 | $18,300 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 401,110 | $18,930 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 393,500 | $19,640 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 375,210 | $20,410 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 372,450 | $21,340 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 370,920 | $22,210 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 383,540 | $22,620 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 387,700 | $22,730 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 396,970 | $22,710 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 395,280 | $22,860 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 399,940 | $23,170 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 402,800 | $23,440 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 404,980 | $23,960 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 409,850 | $24,750 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 404,120 | $25,860 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 400,320 | $26,860 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 402,480 | $27,750 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 387,300 | $28,650 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 392,860 | $29,910 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 417,780 | $32,510 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 435,640 | $35,320 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 448,260 | $36,450 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 441,050 | $37,450 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (84)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA — 1940 Census occupational categories; "cooks, except private household" combined category (OCC1950 code 7540)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/9050occup.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. [National School Lunch Act (Public Law 79-396), signed June 4, 1946 — established permanent federal school lunch program, formalizing school cook employment across participating districts](https://www.fns.usda.gov/nslp/history), USDA Food and Nutrition Service
3. [Medicare (Social Security Amendments of 1965), signed July 30, 1965 — triggered hospital and nursing-home expansion creating sustained demand for institutional dietary kitchen staff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_%28United_States%29), Wikipedia
4. [Compass Group — corporate history (founded 1941 as Factory Canteens Ltd; major US institutional foodservice contractor by 1990); Aramark corporate history (founded 1959; 278,000+ employees); Sodexo corporate history (founded 1966, US expansion 1970s onward)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compass_Group), Wikipedia / Compass Group
5. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

7. [Univ. of Missouri Libraries — "Prices and Wages by Decade: 1960-1969" (institutional food-service workers circa 1960: approximately $1.35–$1.50/hr × 2,080 hrs ≈ $2,800–$3,100/yr nominal; midpoint estimate for institutional cook tier)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1960-1969), University of Missouri Libraries / BLS historical sources
8. [Univ. of Missouri Libraries — "Prices and Wages by Decade: 1980-1989" (institutional food-service cooks circa 1980: approximately $4.10/hr × 2,080 hrs ≈ $8,500/yr nominal; below the restaurant cook tier due to institutional budget constraints and lower tip/premium pay)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1980-1989), University of Missouri Libraries / BLS historical sources
9. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
10. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

11. [Wikipedia — Cafeteria (Exchange Buffet 1885 as first US self-service counter; Childs Restaurants 1898 tray-line system; institutional adoption in schools, hospitals, military)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cafeteria), Wikipedia
12. [HISTORY — "The Automat: Birth of a Fast Food Nation" (Horn & Hardart 1902 Philadelphia founding, steam-table batch model, peak NYC operations)](https://www.history.com/articles/the-automat-birth-of-a-fast-food-nation), HISTORY
13. [Wikipedia — Horn & Hardart (Automat history, last NYC location closed April 9, 1991)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horn_%26_Hardart), Wikipedia
14. [USDA Food and Nutrition Service — "A Short History of the National School Lunch Program" (NSLPA signed June 4, 1946; FY1947 participation 7.1M children; 1970 participation 22M+)](https://www.fns.usda.gov/nslp/history), USDA Food and Nutrition Service
15. [Wikipedia — Aramark (founded 1936/1959 as ARA Services; current ~278,000 employees globally; institutional foodservice across education, healthcare, corrections)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aramark), Wikipedia
16. [Wikipedia — Sodexo (founded 1966 Marseille; current ~426,000 employees; US sectors include K-12, higher ed, healthcare, military, corrections)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodexo), Wikipedia
17. [Wikipedia — Compass Group (founded 1941 as Factory Canteens Ltd.; current 580,000+ employees; US brands include Chartwells, Morrison Healthcare, Bon Appétit)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compass_Group), Wikipedia
18. [Wikipedia — Rational AG (founded 1973; combi-steamer invented 1976; concentrated solely on combi-steamers from 1978; iCombi series flagship)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_AG), Wikipedia
19. [Wikipedia — Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010 (signed December 13, 2010; first major school meal standards update in 30+ years; HHFKA nutrition mandates, 56% increase in food waste per UVM study, 10-12% participation drop in some districts)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthy,_Hunger-Free_Kids_Act_of_2010), Wikipedia
20. [Sysco Corporation — Annual Reports (Sysco MyTrkr digital platform for foodservice operators; menu management, cost-per-meal, inventory automation for institutional accounts)](https://investors.sysco.com/annual-reports-and-sec-filings/annual-reports), Sysco Corporation
21. [USDA Food and Nutrition Service — "COVID-19: Child Nutrition Response" (Pandemic EBT, grab-and-go meals, 29-30M children affected by NSLP school closures in 2020)](https://www.fns.usda.gov/disaster/pandemic/covid-19), USDA Food and Nutrition Service

### Forecasts and exposure studies

22. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 35-2012 Cooks, institution and cafeteria (2025: 454.0 thousand; 2035: 466.6 thousand; +2.8%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=35-2012&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
23. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 35-2012 Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria: probability 0.83, rank 460 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
24. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 35-2012.00, human-rated β 0.086)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

25. [Wikipedia — Cafeteria (Exchange Buffet 1885, first US self-service counter restaurant; Childs Restaurants tray-line system 1898)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cafeteria), Wikipedia
26. [USDA Food and Nutrition Service — "A Short History of the National School Lunch Program" (NSLPA signed June 4, 1946; FY1947 participation 7.1M; 2023-24 participation 29.4M)](https://www.fns.usda.gov/nslp/history), USDA Food and Nutrition Service
27. [Wikipedia — Aramark (founded 1936/1959; ~278,390 employees globally; $18.5B revenue FY2025; institutional foodservice across education, healthcare, corrections, sports venues)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aramark), Wikipedia
28. [Wikipedia — Medicare (United States) (Social Security Amendments of 1965, signed July 30, 1965; hospital expansion creating sustained demand for dietary kitchen staff)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_%28United_States%29), Wikipedia
29. [Wikipedia — Rational AG (founded 1973 Bavaria; combi-steamer invented 1976; sole combi-steamer focus from 1978; iCombi series flagship for institutional kitchens)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_AG), Wikipedia
30. [Wikipedia — Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010 (signed December 13, 2010; first major K-12 school meal standards update in 30+ years; 56% food waste increase per UVM study; 10-12% participation drop in some districts)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthy,_Hunger-Free_Kids_Act_of_2010), Wikipedia
31. [USDA Food and Nutrition Service — "COVID-19: Child Nutrition Response" (Pandemic EBT; school kitchen closures disrupting 29-30M NSLP participants; grab-and-go meal operations)](https://www.fns.usda.gov/disaster/pandemic/covid-19), USDA Food and Nutrition Service

### Predecessors & successors

32. [Wikipedia — Cafeteria (early institutional cafeteria cooks drawn from domestic service and boarding-house traditions)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cafeteria), Wikipedia
33. [USDA Food and Nutrition Service — NSLP history (post-WWII veterans with military food service training entering school and hospital institutional cook roles after 1946)](https://www.fns.usda.gov/nslp/history), USDA Food and Nutrition Service

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 35.0 — Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria (35-2012.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/35-2012.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Winnow — Salem Health 33% food waste reduction in 17 weeks (March 2025)](https://www.winnowsolutions.com/salem-healths-33-food-waste-reduction-with-winnows-ai-food-waste-management-system), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Harvard Crimson — HUDS deploys Winnow AI to combat food waste (October 2025)](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/10/6/huds-ai-food-waste/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Winnow VisionAI — product overview: 3,500+ sites, 500M+ training images](https://www.winnowsolutions.com/product/food-waste-management-software), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Computrition — HS HealthCORE automated hospital menu planning software](https://www.computrition.com/product-solutions/automated-hospital-menu-software/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Food Institute — 6 ways AI will impact restaurants in 2026](https://foodinstitute.com/focus/6-ways-ai-will-impact-restaurants-in-2026/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Miso Robotics — Flippy fry station (QSR deployment, not institutional kitchens)](https://www.misorobotics.com/products), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.