# Cooks, Short Order

US SOC code 35-2015. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/35-2015

Also called: Short order cook, Grill cook, Line cook, Prep cook, Snack bar cook.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **138,650** US short order cooks, with median pay of **$35,880** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **227,360**, in May 2003. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.backthenhistory.com/articles/the-history-of-diners) of **35,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for short order cooks: Kitchen Display System, 1990 to 2015.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 5.2% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=35-2015&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **0%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.94** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.94. BLS counted **167,480** of these jobs in May 2013 and **138,650** in May 2025 (-17%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Cooks, Short Order employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1872
- Latest US employment: 138,650 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $35,880 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [9]
- Outlook: -5.2% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [19]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 35,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Backthenhistory.com [1] |
| 1945 | 120,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., American Heritage (1993) [2] |
| 1970 | 90,000 (estimate) | $4,200 (estimate) | Est., USC Scalar (employment) [3]; Est., FRASER / BLS Bulletin 1712 (pay) [7] |
| 1990 | 130,000 (estimate) | $10,500 (estimate) | Est., Chowhound (employment) [4]; Est., University of Missouri Libraries (pay) [8] |
| 2000 | 160,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., O\*NET OnLine 35-2015.00 [5] |
| 2003 | 227,360 | $16,430 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 225,740 | $16,860 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 203,350 | $17,230 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 189,610 | $17,880 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 177,450 | $18,630 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 168,770 | $19,260 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 166,140 | $19,520 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 171,780 | $19,580 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 168,320 | $19,780 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 162,320 | $19,730 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 167,480 | $19,780 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 180,800 | $20,190 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 193,170 | $20,780 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 183,990 | $21,890 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 174,230 | $22,740 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 155,840 | $23,800 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 152,670 | $25,150 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 123,350 | $26,570 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 124,800 | $28,560 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 133,290 | $30,360 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 126,370 | $34,130 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 150,420 | $35,620 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 138,650 | $35,880 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (83)

### Employment series

1. [Backthenhistory.com — The History of Diners: Walter Scott 1872, commercial production 1887, O'Mahony 1913](https://www.backthenhistory.com/articles/the-history-of-diners), Back Then History
2. [American Heritage (1993) — "The Diner": approximately 6,000 diners at the post-WWII peak](https://www.americanheritage.com/diner), American Heritage
3. [USC Scalar — The Evolution of the American Diner: decline from ~6,000 post-WWII diners as fast food rose through the 1960s](https://scalar.usc.edu/works/the-evolution-of-the-american-diner/decline-of-the-american-diner), University of Southern California
4. [Chowhound — How Old School Lunch Wagons Paved The Way For Modern Diners: Jerry O'Mahony diner history, mid-century evolution](https://www.chowhound.com/1888031/old-school-diner-lunch-wagon-history/), Chowhound
5. [O\*NET OnLine 35-2015.00 — Cooks, Short Order: occupation summary, tasks, skills, wages, and 2024 employment](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/35-2015.00), O\*NET / BLS
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

7. [FRASER / BLS Bulletin 1712 — Wages and Tips in Restaurants and Hotels, March 1970 (restaurant cook wage reference)](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bls/bls_1712_1971.pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRASER St. Louis Fed
8. [University of Missouri Libraries — Prices and Wages by Decade: 1980-1989 (BLS occupational wage survey references for food service)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1980-1989), University of Missouri Libraries / BLS
9. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

10. [Back Then History — The History of Diners: Walter Scott 1872 launch, Palmer 1891 patent, commercial production 1887](https://www.backthenhistory.com/articles/the-history-of-diners), Back Then History
11. [Chowhound — How Old School Lunch Wagons Paved The Way For Modern Diners: wagon kitchen design and layout evolution](https://www.chowhound.com/1888031/old-school-diner-lunch-wagon-history/), Chowhound
12. [American Heritage (April 1993, Vol. 44, Issue 2) — "The Diner": golden age kitchen description, the cook nicknamed "the Spider"](https://www.americanheritage.com/diner), American Heritage
13. [Historic Projects — Speedee Service System: McDonald brothers 1948 kitchen redesign, assembly-line fast food origin](https://www.historicprojects.com/Speedee_Service.html), Historic Projects
14. [EBSCO Research Starters — McDonald's restaurants and "McDonaldization": impact on the broader restaurant industry](https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/history/mcdonalds-restaurants-and-mcdonaldization), EBSCO
15. [Fresh Technology — Kitchen Display Systems: A Simple Guide to Get Started: history of the paper ticket and POS printer era before KDS](https://www.fresh.technology/blog/kitchen-display-systems-a-simple-guide-to-get-started), Fresh Technology
16. [Toast POS — Kitchen Display System: cloud-based KDS for independent restaurants, 2016 launch](https://pos.toasttab.com/products/kitchen-display-system), Toast
17. [Miso Robotics — Flippy: autonomous fryer deployed at White Castle, Jack in the Box, and other chains (official product page)](https://www.misorobotics.com/), Miso Robotics
18. [Fortune — Miso Robotics acquires Zignyl: the $28 billion race to automate restaurant kitchens (February 2026)](https://fortune.com/2026/02/26/robot-disruption-fast-food-short-order-cook-flippy-labor-shortage/), Fortune

### Forecasts and exposure studies

19. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 35-2015 Cooks, short order (2025: 138.7 thousand; 2035: 131.5 thousand; -5.2%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=35-2015&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
20. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 35-2015 Cooks, Short Order: probability 0.94, rank 601 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
21. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 35-2015.00, human-rated β 0)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

22. [Rhode Island Heritage Hall of Fame — Walter Scott: Providence lunch wagon operator, 1872-1917](https://riheritagehalloffame.com/Walter-Scott/), Rhode Island Heritage Hall of Fame
23. [Chowhound — How Old School Lunch Wagons Paved The Way For Modern Diners: Thomas Buckley commercial production 1887, Worcester](https://www.chowhound.com/1888031/old-school-diner-lunch-wagon-history/), Chowhound
24. [American Heritage (April 1993) — "The Diner": 6,000 diners at WWII peak, the cook nicknamed "the Spider"](https://www.americanheritage.com/diner), American Heritage
25. [Historic Projects — Speedee Service System: McDonald brothers 1948 assembly-line kitchen, fast food origin](https://www.historicprojects.com/Speedee_Service.html), Historic Projects
26. [Smithsonian Magazine — Courage at the Greensboro Lunch Counter: the 1960 sit-in, Woolworth's $200,000 losses, July 25, 1960 integration](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/courage-at-the-greensboro-lunch-counter-4507661/), Smithsonian Magazine
27. [USC Scalar — The Evolution of the American Diner: diner decline from the 1960s, fast food competition](https://scalar.usc.edu/works/the-evolution-of-the-american-diner/decline-of-the-american-diner), University of Southern California
28. [Miso Robotics — Flippy: autonomous fryer deployed at White Castle, Jack in the Box, and other chains (official product page)](https://www.misorobotics.com/), Miso Robotics

### Predecessors & successors

29. [Back Then History — The History of Diners: Walter Scott 1872, commercial lunch wagon manufacturing from 1887](https://www.backthenhistory.com/articles/the-history-of-diners), Back Then History

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET OnLine — Cooks, Short Order (35-2015.00): tasks, skills, wages, employment](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/35-2015.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS OEWS May 2025 — Short Order Cooks (35-2015): 138,650 employed, median $36,120/yr](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ocwage.t01.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Cooks (2024-2034 projections)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/food-preparation-and-serving/cooks.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Miso Robotics: Flippy Fry Station, an AI-powered robotic fry station automating frying in commercial kitchens, with White Castle among its deployments](https://www.misorobotics.com/products/), accessed 2026-10-07
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs: task-level AI exposure (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Fortune / Yahoo Finance — $28 billion race to automate restaurants; Flippy reduces fry-station labor (Feb 2026)](https://fortune.com/2026/02/26/robot-disruption-fast-food-short-order-cook-flippy-labor-shortage/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Winnow VisionAI — food waste tracking trained on 500M+ images, deployed in 3,500+ sites across 94 countries](https://www.winnowsolutions.com/product/food-waste-management-software), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Winnow blog — Hospitality operators saving $100M/year in food waste via AI (2025)](https://blog.winnowsolutions.com/hospitality-operators-using-winnow-now-saving-100-million-in-food-waste-per-year), accessed 2026-06-05
- [ClearCOGS — Prep Forecasting: daily ingredient-level prep sheets, 50%+ waste reduction at Jimmy John's franchise (2025)](https://www.clearcogs.com/prep/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Restaurant Technology News — ClearCOGS raises $3.8M for AI prep forecasting (Apr 2025)](https://restauranttechnologynews.com/2025/04/clearcogs-secures-3-8-million-to-help-restaurants-cut-waste-and-optimize-operations-with-ai-forecasting-engine/), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.