# Bartenders

US SOC code 35-3011. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/35-3011

Also called: Mixologist, Bar manager, Lead bartender, Craft bartender, Bar supervisor.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **756,390** US bartenders, with median pay of **$34,340** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taverns_in_North_America) of **50,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for bartenders: Restaurant POS systems + inventory management software, 2000 to 2020.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 5% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=35-3011&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **13.9%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.77** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.77. BLS counted **555,560** of these jobs in May 2013 and **756,390** in May 2025 (+36%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Bartenders employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1700
- Latest US employment: 756,390 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Latest US median pay: $34,340 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [15]
- Outlook: +5% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [37]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 64301)
  - Employment, 2020: 28,865. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [7]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 64301 Bartenders, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$19,400. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [19]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 64301 Bartenders, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.
- **United Kingdom** (UK SOC 9265)
  - Employment, 2025: 84,000. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [11]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14): employee jobs in SOC 9265 Bar staff, United Kingdom, 2025 (ASHE "number of jobs", thousands x1000; excludes self-employment). Open Government Licence v3.0.
  - Median pay, 2025: £9,166. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [23]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14.7a): median gross annual pay for all employee jobs in SOC 9265 Bar staff, United Kingdom, 2025. Open Government Licence v3.0.
- **Australia** (ANZSCO 4311)
  - Employment, 2025: 116,200. Source: ABS Labour Force Survey [12]. ABS Labour Force Survey (Detailed), table EQ08: employed persons in ANZSCO 4311 Bar Attendants and Baristas, national (summed across sex and state/territory), annual average of 4 quarterly estimates.
  - Median pay, 2025: A$78,000. Source: ABS Employee Earnings May 2025 [24]. Annualised (x52) from A$1,500 median weekly earnings. ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025: median pay for full-time non-managerial employees paid at the adult rate, before tax. Surfaced via the Jobs and Skills Australia occupation profile.

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 50,000 (estimate) | $425 (estimate) | Est., Neat History (employment) [1]; Est., University of Missouri Libraries (pay) [13] |
| 1950 | 250,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., IPUMS USA [2] |
| 1999 | n/a | $18,844 | Census 2000 [14] |
| 2000 | 450,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [3] |
| 2003 | 470,020 | $15,040 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [4] |
| 2004 | 463,000 | $15,440 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [4] |
| 2005 | 480,010 | $15,850 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [4] |
| 2006 | 485,120 | $16,350 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [4] |
| 2007 | 498,090 | $17,090 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [4] |
| 2008 | 503,420 | $17,770 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [4] |
| 2009 | 492,480 | $18,350 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [4] |
| 2010 | 495,350 | $18,680 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [4] |
| 2011 | 512,230 | $18,850 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [4] |
| 2012 | 538,220 | $18,900 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [4] |
| 2013 | 555,560 | $18,920 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [4] |
| 2014 | 579,700 | $19,050 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [4] |
| 2015 | 589,150 | $19,530 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [4] |
| 2016 | 603,320 | $20,800 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [4] |
| 2017 | 613,350 | $21,690 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [4] |
| 2018 | 631,480 | $22,550 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [4] |
| 2019 | 646,850 | $23,680 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [4] |
| 2020 | 486,720 | $24,960 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [4] |
| 2021 | 485,330 | $26,350 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | 613,070 | $29,380 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | 711,140 | $31,510 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | 745,610 | $33,530 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 756,390 | $34,340 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [4] |

## Sources (110)

### Employment series

1. [Neat History — "What Wild West Saloons Were Really Like" (frontier bartender count by 1900); Taverns in North America, Wikipedia (215,000 licensed saloons, 26 million patrons by 1900)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taverns_in_North_America), Wikipedia / Taverns in North America
2. [IPUMS USA — Occupation and Industry Codes (1950 Census methodology, bartenders classified distinctly from saloon keepers post-Repeal)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/9050occup.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
3. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Bartenders (2000-01 edition cited in secondary sources as approximately 450,000 employed)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/food-preparation-and-serving/bartenders.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
5. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
6. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
8. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 9225, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2002](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2002/2002-table-14.zip), [2006](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2006consistentw_007methodology/2006-table-14.zip), [2010](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2010revised/2010-revised-table-14.zip)
9. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 9274, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip)
10. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 9265, United Kingdom, 2022. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), Office for National Statistics
11. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 9265, United Kingdom, 2025. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip), Office for National Statistics
12. [ABS: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, table EQ08 (Employed persons by Occupation unit group, ANZSCO 2013), latest release](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/latest-release), Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Wage series

13. [University of Missouri Libraries — Prices and Wages by Decade: 1900-1909 (Workers of the Nation, Vol. 2, bartender annual wage ~$425)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1900-1909), University of Missouri Libraries / historical wage sources
14. [U.S. Census 2000, Earnings by Detailed Occupation (Table 2): Bartenders, year-round full-time median earnings $18,844 for 1999 (wage-and-salary basis; Census earnings generally exclude tips).](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/tables/2000/earnings-occupation/call2usboth.csv), CENSUS
15. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
16. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
17. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
18. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
19. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
20. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 9225, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2002](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2002/2002-table-14.zip), [2006](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2006consistentw_007methodology/2006-table-14.zip), [2010](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2010revised/2010-revised-table-14.zip)
21. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 9274, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip)
22. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 9265, United Kingdom, 2022. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), Office for National Statistics
23. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 9265, United Kingdom, 2025. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip), Office for National Statistics
24. [Jobs and Skills Australia: Bar Attendants and Baristas (ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025)](https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/data/occupation-and-industry-profiles/occupations/4311-bar-attendants-and-baristas), Jobs and Skills Australia / Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Tool eras

25. [Taverns in North America — Wikipedia (colonial tavern operations, licensing, equipment)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taverns_in_North_America), Wikipedia
26. [History of Bartending in A Timeline — Drinks World (commercial ice trade and glassware shift, 1830s)](https://drinksworld.com/history-of-bartending-in-a-timeline/), Drinks World
27. [Wikipedia — Jerry Thomas (bartender): published first American bar guide in 1862; earned $100/week at Occidental Hotel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Thomas_%28bartender%29), Wikipedia
28. [Wikipedia — Hotel Employees and Restaurant Employees Union (AFL charter 1891 as Waiters and Bartenders National Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotel_Employees_and_Restaurant_Employees_Union), Wikipedia
29. [History of Bartending: From Prohibition to Present Day — Bare Barrel (post-Repeal recovery, cocktail lounge era)](https://www.barebarrel.com/blogs/the-bare-barrel-blog/the-history-of-bartending-from-prohibition-to-present-day), Bare Barrel
30. [Economic Policy Institute — "Twenty-Three Years and Still Waiting for Change: Why It's Time to Give Tipped Workers the Regular Minimum Wage" (FLSA 1966 tipped minimum history; $2.13/hr frozen since 1991)](https://www.epi.org/publication/waiting-for-change-tipped-minimum-wage/), Economic Policy Institute
31. [PUNCH — "Where It All Began: The Modern Cocktail Renaissance History, 1990s" (Dale DeGroff at Rainbow Room; origin of the craft revival)](https://punchdrink.com/articles/where-it-all-began-modern-cocktail-renaissance-history-1990s/), PUNCH
32. [WISK — Bar inventory management software: 80% reduction in inventory time, up to 20 hours/month saved](https://www.wisk.ai/bar-inventory-management-software), WISK
33. [Toast POS — "The History of Restaurant POS Systems" (evolution from NCR cash registers to cloud POS)](https://pos.toasttab.com/blog/the-history-of-restaurant-pos-systems), Toast
34. [Nvidia Blog — ADAM robot bartender (Richtech Robotics) at Vegas Golden Knights arena with NVIDIA Isaac vision-AI](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/adam-robot-vegas-golden-knights-thor/), Nvidia
35. [OysterLink — Rise of robotic bartenders: $100k-$200k cost, cruise ships and casinos; human craft remains irreplaceable](https://oysterlink.com/spotlight/rise-of-robotic-bartenders/), OysterLink
36. [Interesting Engineering — AI Barmen robotic bartender debuts at CES 2026](https://interestingengineering.com/ai-robotics/ai-robotic-bartender-hospitality-automation), Interesting Engineering

### Forecasts and exposure studies

37. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 35-3011 Bartenders (2025: 762.6 thousand; 2035: 800.5 thousand; +5.0%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=35-3011&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
38. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 35-3011 Bartenders: probability 0.77, rank 422 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
39. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 35-3011.00, human-rated β 0.139)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

40. [Taverns in North America — Wikipedia (Philadelphia tavern density 1776; Green Dragon Tavern)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taverns_in_North_America), Wikipedia
41. [Wikipedia — Jerry Thomas (bartender): published first American bar guide in 1862; Blue Blazer inventor; $100/week at Occidental Hotel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Thomas_%28bartender%29), Wikipedia
42. [Wikipedia — Hotel Employees and Restaurant Employees Union (founded 1891 as Waiters and Bartenders National Union, AFL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotel_Employees_and_Restaurant_Employees_Union), Wikipedia
43. [The Mob Museum — "The Speakeasies of the 1920s" (32,000 speakeasies in New York at Prohibition peak; women as bartenders)](https://prohibition.themobmuseum.org/the-history/the-prohibition-underworld/the-speakeasies-of-the-1920s/), The Mob Museum / National Museum of Organized Crime and Law Enforcement
44. [Economic Policy Institute — "Twenty-Three Years and Still Waiting for Change" (FLSA 1966 tipped minimum; $2.13/hr frozen since 1991)](https://www.epi.org/publication/waiting-for-change-tipped-minimum-wage/), Economic Policy Institute
45. [PUNCH — "Where It All Began: The Modern Cocktail Renaissance" (Dale DeGroff at Rainbow Room, 1987; Milk and Honey, 2000)](https://punchdrink.com/articles/where-it-all-began-modern-cocktail-renaissance-history-1990s/), PUNCH
46. [Fortune — "Over 110,000 eating and drinking establishments closed in 2020, 2.5 million jobs lost pre-COVID" (January 2021)](https://fortune.com/2021/01/26/restaurants-bars-closed-2020-jobs-lost-how-many-have-closed-us-covid-pandemic-stimulus-unemployment/), Fortune

### Predecessors & successors

47. [Taverns in North America — Wikipedia (tavern keeping as the predecessor occupation to bartending)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taverns_in_North_America), Wikipedia
48. [Wikipedia — Western saloon (bar staff, saloon keepers and bartenders as the founding-era occupational pool in the American West)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_saloon), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Bartenders (35-3011.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/35-3011.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Bartenders (6% growth 2024-2034, 756,700 employed)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/food-preparation-and-serving/bartenders.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [OysterLink — Bartender Statistics 2025-2026 (745,610 employed, 9% projected growth, $39,880 median base)](https://oysterlink.com/spotlight/statistics-about-bartenders-2025/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Interesting Engineering — AI Barmen robotic bartender debuts at CES 2026](https://interestingengineering.com/ai-robotics/ai-robotic-bartender-hospitality-automation), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Nvidia Blog — ADAM robot bartender (Richtech Robotics) at Vegas Golden Knights arena](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/adam-robot-vegas-golden-knights-thor/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [The Robot Report — ADAM humanoid bartender debuts at Texas Rangers stadium](https://www.therobotreport.com/humanoid-bartender-robot-adam-debuts-at-texas-rangers-stadium/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [WISK — Bar inventory management: up to 20 hours/month saved, 80% reduction in inventory time](https://www.wisk.ai/bar-inventory-management-software), accessed 2026-06-03
- [PYMNTS — Toast AI-powered menu upsell boosts average order value 6% at cocktail bar](https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2025/toast-ai-powered-menu-upsell-tool-boosts-restaurants-average-order-volume-6percent/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [OysterLink — Rise of robotic bartenders: $100k-$200k cost, cruise ships and casinos](https://oysterlink.com/spotlight/rise-of-robotic-bartenders/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Bar & Restaurant — Salary outlook for on-premise beverage industry (7.52% wage growth for bartenders in 2025)](https://www.barandrestaurant.com/operations/salary-outlook-over-next-10-years-premise-industry), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.