# Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists

US SOC code 39-5012. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/39-5012

Also called: Hairstylist, Hair colorist, Cosmetologist, Hair salon stylist, Master stylist.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **305,710** US hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists, with median pay of **$35,790** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/9050occup.shtml) of **65,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists: Digital booking platforms, 2009 to 2019. Digital booking and social media marketing reduced the structural advantage of working inside a large salon chain, accelerating the shift toward independent contractor arrangements.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 7.7% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=39-5012&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **5.3%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.11** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.11. BLS counted **351,960** of these jobs in May 2013 and **305,710** in May 2025 (-13%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1765
- Latest US employment: 305,710 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $35,790 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [12]
- Outlook: +7.7% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [26]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 63210)
  - Employment, 2020: 86,365. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [9]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 63210 Hairstylists and barbers, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$18,800. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [15]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 63210 Hairstylists and barbers, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.

### All 29 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 65,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., IPUMS USA [1] |
| 1920 | 180,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Encyclopedia Britannica [2] |
| 1940 | 250,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Professional Beauty Association [3] |
| 1960 | 390,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [4] |
| 1980 | 520,000 (estimate) | $10,500 (estimate) | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [4] |
| 2000 | 327,140 | $17,660 | BLS OEWS 2000 [5] |
| 2003 | 335,860 | $18,700 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 331,260 | $19,800 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 338,910 | $20,610 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 344,900 | $21,320 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 343,320 | $22,210 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 355,990 | $23,140 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 349,210 | $23,330 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 349,420 | $22,760 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 357,030 | $22,570 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 355,910 | $22,700 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 351,960 | $23,140 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 343,140 | $23,120 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 348,010 | $23,660 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 352,380 | $24,260 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 351,910 | $24,850 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 377,210 | $24,730 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 385,960 | $26,090 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 302,410 | $27,380 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 285,980 | $29,670 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 298,050 | $33,290 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 294,840 | $34,970 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 295,460 | $35,250 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 305,710 | $35,790 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (93)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA — 1900 Census occupational category "barbers, hairdressers, and manicurists" (combined category; hairdresser subset estimated); Martha Matilda Harper franchise history (500+ salons by peak, launched 1888)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/9050occup.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. [Encyclopedia Britannica — "Madam C. J. Walker" (trained 20,000 beauty culturists by 1917); permanent wave machine history (Karl Nessler, first commercial demonstration 1905)](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Madam-C-J-Walker), Encyclopaedia Britannica
3. [Professional Beauty Association — "Industry History" (early licensing context, salon growth 1920s-1940s)](https://www.probeauty.org/), Professional Beauty Association
4. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists (historical employment context, 1960s era)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/personal-care-and-service/barbers-hairstylists-and-cosmetologists.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
8. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
9. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Wage series

10. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Cosmetologists (1980-81 edition wage context); inflation adjustment via BLS CPI-U calculator. Tip income was a substantial but unmeasured supplement to formal wages in this era.](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/personal-care-and-service/barbers-hairstylists-and-cosmetologists.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
12. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
13. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
14. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
15. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Tool eras

16. [Wikipedia — "Marcel wave" (Marcel Grateau, invention c. 1872-1875; patented curling iron US Patent 806386, 1905)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcel_wave), Wikipedia
17. [Wikipedia — "Hairdresser: History" (Legros de Rumigny, Art de la Coiffure des Dames, 1765; Paris 1,200 hairdressers by 1777)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hairdresser), Wikipedia
18. [Wikipedia — "Martha Matilda Harper" (first salon Rochester 1888, $360 life savings; first modern retail franchise 1891; 500+ locations at peak)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Matilda_Harper), Wikipedia
19. [Wikipedia — "Madam C. J. Walker" (founded enterprise 1905-1906, Lelia College 1908 Pittsburgh, trained ~20,000 beauty culturists by 1917)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madam_C._J._Walker), Wikipedia
20. [Wikipedia — "Permanent wave" (Karl Nessler 1905, cold wave ammonium thioglycolate 1938; "well established" by 1930 with middle-class women visiting every 3 months)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_wave), Wikipedia
21. [Wikipedia — "Vidal Sassoon" (first salon 108 New Bond Street London 1954; five-point cut, wash-and-wear geometry; New York expansion 1965)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vidal_Sassoon), Wikipedia
22. [Wikipedia — "Vagaro" (founded by Fred Helou, 2009)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vagaro), Wikipedia
23. [Wikipedia — "Booksy" (founded July 8, 2014 by Stefan Batory in Warsaw; US-focused from launch)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booksy), Wikipedia
24. [Wikipedia — "Square (financial services): Square Appointments" (launched 2014)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_%28financial_services%29), Wikipedia
25. [BLS National Employment Matrix — 39-5012 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists (2024-34: 575.2k baseline, 607.4k projected, +5.6%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=39-5012&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Forecasts and exposure studies

26. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 39-5012 Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists (2025: 595.0 thousand; 2035: 640.9 thousand; +7.7%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=39-5012&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
27. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 39-5012 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists: probability 0.11, rank 176 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
28. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 39-5012.00, human-rated β 0.053)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

29. [Wikipedia — "Martha Matilda Harper" (first salon 1888, $360 life savings, reclining shampoo chair, first US retail franchise 1891, 500+ locations at peak)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Matilda_Harper), Wikipedia
30. [Wikipedia — "Madam C. J. Walker" (Lelia College 1908 Pittsburgh; 20,000 trained by 1917; first Black female self-made millionaire per Guinness World Records)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madam_C._J._Walker), Wikipedia
31. [Wikipedia — "Permanent wave" (cold wave 1938, ammonium thioglycolate chemistry, Arnold Willat; eliminating heat machines)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_wave), Wikipedia
32. [Wikipedia — "Vidal Sassoon" (first salon 108 New Bond Street London 1954, Georgia Brown first client, New York 1965, five-point cut, wash-and-wear)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vidal_Sassoon), Wikipedia
33. [Wikipedia — "Vagaro" (founded by Fred Helou, 2009)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vagaro), Wikipedia
34. [Wikipedia — "Cosmetology" (citing IJ critique of licensure burden; most states require 1,500 hours; Iowa 2,100 hours; average school cost ~$17,000)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmetology), Wikipedia
35. [Professional Beauty Association — COVID-19 impact statement (1.2 million beauty businesses affected); BLS CES personal care services employment data (60%+ employment decline Feb-Apr 2020)](https://www.probeauty.org/), Professional Beauty Association

### Predecessors & successors

36. [Wikipedia — "Martha Matilda Harper" (former domestic servant; Harper specifically recruited from domestic service)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Matilda_Harper), Wikipedia
37. [Wikipedia — "Madam C. J. Walker" (Lelia College 1908; trained nearly 20,000 beauty culturists by 1917)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madam_C._J._Walker), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [BLS OOH — Barbers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists (2024-34 outlook)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/personal-care-and-service/barbers-hairstylists-and-cosmetologists.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS OEWS May 2024 — Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists (39-5012) (national flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), accessed 2026-10-07
- [O\*NET 30.3 — Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists (39-5012.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/39-5012.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [AI Changing Work — Will AI Replace Hairdressers? (2026 data, 5/100 automation risk)](https://aichanging.work/en/blog/will-ai-replace-hairdressers), accessed 2026-06-03
- [PRNewswire — ReFa AI Color Recipe PRO at CES 2026 (MTG Co., Ltd.)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/refa-ai-color-recipe-pro-to-be-exhibited-at-ces-2026-302643141.html), accessed 2026-06-03
- [L'Oreal CES 2022 — Coloright professional AI color formulation system](https://www.loreal.com/en/press-release/research-and-innovation/loreal-unveils-latest-beauty-tech-innovations-ahead-of-ces-2022/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Perfect Corp. — Generative AI hairstyling virtual try-on in YouCam Makeup (Oct 2023)](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231026199135/en/Perfect-Corp.-Unveils-Unique-Generative-AI-Technology-for-Hairstyling-in-YouCam-Makeup-App-with-Worlds-Most-Advanced-Virtual-Try-On-Solution), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Revieve — AI Hair Color Artist virtual try-on platform](https://www.revieve.com/platform/ai-hair-color-artist), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Zenoti — AI salon management: 33% more sales per guest, 40% fewer no-shows](https://www.zenoti.com/salon-management-software), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Zenoti — How to use AI technology to automate salon operations](https://www.zenoti.com/thecheckin/use-of-ai-technology-for-salon-automation), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Perfect Corp. — YouCam AI Beauty Agent for hairstyle and beauty conversational AI (Nov 2025)](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251110601035/en/Perfect-Corp.-Launches-YouCam-AI-Beauty-Agent-in-YouCam-Makeup-App-to-Lead-the-Next-Generation-of-Conversational-AI-in-Beauty-Skincare-and-Fashion), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.