# First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

US SOC code 41-1011. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/41-1011

Also called: Retail store manager, Store manager, Assistant store manager, Department manager retail, Store supervisor.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **1,121,800** US first-line supervisors of retail sales workers, with median pay of **$48,520** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **1,143,260**, in May 2021, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml) of **180,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for first-line supervisors of retail sales workers: Self-checkout kiosk + workforce management software, 1986 to 2010.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 3.7% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=41-1011&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **40.5%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.28** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.28. BLS counted **1,213,550** of these jobs in May 2013 and **1,121,800** in May 2025. The count moved sharply in one step, May 2020 to May 2021, when BLS changed how it estimates these counts, so no change is derived here.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1858
- Latest US employment: 1,121,800 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $48,520 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [9]
- Outlook: -3.7% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [22]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 62010)
  - Employment, 2020: 61,520. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [6]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 62010 Retail sales supervisors, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$42,800. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [11]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 62010 Retail sales supervisors, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 180,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., IPUMS USA [1] |
| 1930 | 400,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [2] |
| 1960 | 600,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., IPUMS USA [1] |
| 1983 | 1,000,000 | $19,000 (estimate) | BLS CPS 2002 [3] |
| 2000 | 1,269,870 | $27,510 | BLS OEWS 2000 [4] |
| 2003 | 1,175,310 | $30,680 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 1,087,830 | $32,720 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 1,083,890 | $32,840 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 1,111,740 | $33,960 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 1,156,540 | $34,470 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 1,186,270 | $35,310 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 1,163,040 | $34,900 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 1,172,070 | $35,820 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 1,197,390 | $36,480 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 1,214,170 | $36,820 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 1,213,550 | $37,200 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 1,199,770 | $37,860 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 1,193,850 | $38,310 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 1,194,220 | $39,040 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 1,200,180 | $38,550 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 1,181,530 | $39,630 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 1,171,900 | $40,350 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 1,063,110 | $41,580 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 1,143,260 | $39,230 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 1,097,160 | $45,250 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 1,087,890 | $46,730 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 1,113,160 | $47,320 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 1,121,800 | $48,520 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (89)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA — 1900 Census occupational categories for retail trade managers and dealers (historical occupation series)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. [Wikipedia — Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (A&P history; 15,000 stores at 1930 peak)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Atlantic_%26_Pacific_Tea_Company), Wikipedia
3. [BLS — Historical CPS employment 1983-99 on the 2002 Census industry and occupational classifications (retail trade manager series)](https://www.bls.gov/cps/constio198399.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
6. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Wage series

7. [BLS CPS — estimated median annual earnings for full-time retail managers circa 1983, consistent with BLS CPS retail trade occupational series and documented wage levels for store managers in the early chain-store era](https://www.bls.gov/cps/constio198399.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
8. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
9. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
10. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Tool eras

12. [Wikipedia — Macy's (founding October 28, 1858; department store floor supervision origin)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macy%27s), Wikipedia
13. [Wikipedia — Marshall Field's (1852 founding; department store management innovation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Field%27s), Wikipedia
14. [Wikipedia — F. W. Woolworth Company (founded February 22, 1879; 596 stores by 1912; chain-store management model)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F._W._Woolworth_Company), Wikipedia
15. [Wikipedia — Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (founded 1859; 15,000 stores at 1930 peak; chain-store manager system)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Atlantic_%26_Pacific_Tea_Company), Wikipedia
16. [Wikipedia — Walmart (founded July 2, 1962, Rogers, Arkansas; first Wal-Mart Discount City)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walmart), Wikipedia
17. [Wikipedia — Kmart (first store January 25, 1962, Garden City, Michigan; 2,486 global stores at peak)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kmart), Wikipedia
18. [Wikipedia — Self-checkout (first commercial unit: CheckRobot, Kroger store near Atlanta, July 1986)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-checkout), Wikipedia
19. [Wikipedia — Kronos Incorporated (founded October 31, 1977; workforce management software for retail)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kronos_Incorporated), Wikipedia
20. [Wikipedia — Retail apocalypse (2017: 12,000+ store closures; Sears, Toys R Us, Payless, Bed Bath & Beyond bankruptcies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail_apocalypse), Wikipedia
21. [Wikipedia — JCPenney (founded April 14, 1902; Chapter 11 bankruptcy filed May 15, 2020; ~175 stores closed 2020-2021)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JCPenney), Wikipedia

### Forecasts and exposure studies

22. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 41-1011 First-line supervisors of retail sales workers (2025: 1,419.8 thousand; 2035: 1,367.4 thousand; -3.7%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=41-1011&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
23. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 41-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers: probability 0.28, rank 233 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
24. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 41-1011.00, human-rated β 0.405)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

25. [Wikipedia — Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (founded February 17, 1859; 15,000 stores at peak; final closure November 2015)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Atlantic_%26_Pacific_Tea_Company), Wikipedia
26. [Wikipedia — JCPenney (founded April 14, 1902; 2,053 stores at 1973 peak; Chapter 11 May 2020)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JCPenney), Wikipedia
27. [Wikipedia — Walmart (first store July 2, 1962, Rogers, Arkansas) and Kmart (first store January 25, 1962, Garden City, Michigan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walmart), Wikipedia
28. [Wikipedia — Kronos Incorporated (founded October 31, 1977; workforce management software; merged to form UKG 2020)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kronos_Incorporated), Wikipedia
29. [Wikipedia — Self-checkout (first commercial installation: CheckRobot, Kroger store near Atlanta, July 1986)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-checkout), Wikipedia
30. [Wikipedia — Retail apocalypse (2017: 12,000+ store closures; Sears, Toys R Us, Payless ShoeSource, Bed Bath & Beyond)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail_apocalypse), Wikipedia

### Predecessors & successors

31. [Wikipedia — Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (A&P founding 1859; chain-store manager replacing independent proprietor model)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Atlantic_%26_Pacific_Tea_Company), Wikipedia
32. [Wikipedia — Macy's (founding October 28, 1858; department-store floor supervision)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macy%27s), Wikipedia
33. [Wikipedia — Retail apocalypse (displaced retail managers re-entering floor sales after store closures)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail_apocalypse), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-23
- [O\*NET 30.3 — First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (41-1011.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/41-1011.00), accessed 2026-05-23
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (–1% growth 2023–2033)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/first-line-supervisors-of-retail-sales-workers.htm), accessed 2026-05-23
- [NRF "Retail's Workforce of the Future" — AI augmentation and frontline manager time reallocation (2025)](https://nrf.com/research/future-retail-workforce-study-holiday-2023), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Legion Technologies "State of the Hourly Workforce 2025" — AI scheduling time savings and manager floor-time data](https://legion.ai/resources/state-of-the-hourly-workforce/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [McKinsey "The State of AI in Retail 2025" — AI loss prevention, scheduling, and inventory automation in store operations](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/state-of-ai-in-retail), accessed 2026-05-23
- [RIS News "AI Across the Retail Enterprise 2025" — store operations AI adoption and workforce impact](https://risnews.com/ai-across-retail-enterprise), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Retail Dive — AI in store operations: scheduling, inventory, and loss prevention deployment (2025–2026)](https://www.retaildive.com/topic/technology/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Salesforce Commerce Cloud AI / Agentforce for Retail — AI-generated store performance analytics and conversion dashboards (Jan 2026)](https://www.salesforce.com/commerce/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Square AI "Intelligent Insights" — automated daily sales reporting and performance anomaly detection (2025)](https://squareup.com/us/en/point-of-sale/retail), accessed 2026-05-23
- [UKG "AI in Workforce Management 2026" — demand-driven scheduling optimization and labor-law compliance automation](https://www.ukg.com/resources/article/ai-workforce-management), accessed 2026-05-23
- [Simbe Robotics Tally — Autonomous shelf-scanning robot: real-time OOS, planogram compliance, and inventory accuracy (2025)](https://www.simberobotics.com/), accessed 2026-05-23
- [NCR Voyix — AI-powered store operations and replenishment management (2025)](https://www.ncrvoyix.com/), accessed 2026-05-23

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.