# Postal Service Mail Carriers

US SOC code 43-5052. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/43-5052

Also called: Mail carrier, Letter carrier, City carrier, Rural carrier, Postal carrier.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **328,820** US postal service mail carriers, with median pay of **$60,550** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **354,570**, in May 2008. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://facts.usps.com/free-city-delivery/) of **450** from 1863, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for postal service mail carriers: USPS Informed Delivery and MDD-TR scanner, 2017 to 2025.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects little or no change in employment from 2025 to 2035 (-0.3%). Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=43-5052&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **0.68** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.68. BLS counted **307,490** of these jobs in May 2013 and **328,820** in May 2025 (+7%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Postal Service Mail Carriers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1775
- Latest US employment: 328,820 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $60,550 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [13]
- Outlook: -0.3% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [33]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 74101)
  - Employment, 2020: 33,235. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [9]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 74101 Letter carriers, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$65,000. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [17]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 74101 Letter carriers, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.

### All 29 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1863 | 450 (estimate) | n/a | Est., USPS Facts [1] |
| 1900 | 56,322 (estimate) | n/a | Est., NALC [2] |
| 1926 | 169,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., USPS [3] |
| 1970 | 268,000 (estimate) | $6,176 (estimate) | Est., Wikipedia [4] |
| 1980 | n/a | $19,000 (estimate) | Est., University of Missouri Libraries [11] |
| 2000 | 354,980 | $37,000 (estimate) | BLS OEWS 2000 (employment) [5]; Est., NALC (pay) [12] |
| 2003 | 344,580 | $39,620 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 344,050 | $44,450 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 347,180 | $46,330 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 346,990 | $44,350 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 348,070 | $44,500 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 354,570 | $49,800 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 339,030 | $52,200 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 324,990 | $53,860 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 315,330 | $55,160 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 305,490 | $56,490 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 307,490 | $56,490 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 307,490 | $57,200 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 315,950 | $58,280 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 328,950 | $58,110 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 336,900 | $57,000 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 342,410 | $55,210 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 339,650 | $51,310 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 333,570 | $51,080 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 335,540 | $52,440 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 326,760 | $54,250 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 331,600 | $56,330 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 336,040 | $57,490 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 328,820 | $60,550 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (99)

### Employment series

1. [USPS Facts — "Free City Delivery" (1863 launch: 49 offices, 450 carriers)](https://facts.usps.com/free-city-delivery/), U.S. Postal Service
2. [NALC — "The Beginning": city letter carriers by 1900 in 796 cities (15,322 carriers); USPS RFD history: 37,000+ rural carriers by 1901](https://www.nalc.org/about/our-history/the-beginning), National Association of Letter Carriers / U.S. Postal Service
3. [USPS — "Number of Postal Employees Since 1926" (total workforce 245,769 in 1926; carrier share estimated)](https://about.usps.com/who/profile/history/employees-since-1926.htm), U.S. Postal Service
4. [Wikipedia — 1970 United States postal strike (200,000+ carriers struck; 741,000 total postal employees in FY 1970)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_United_States_postal_strike), Wikipedia / USPS Annual Report FY 1970
5. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
8. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
9. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Wage series

10. [Wikipedia — 1970 United States postal strike (annual salary ~$6,176 cited as the triggering grievance)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_United_States_postal_strike), Wikipedia / contemporary labor reporting
11. [University of Missouri Libraries — "Prices and Wages by Decade: 1970-1979" (federal civilian worker wage context)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1970-1979), University of Missouri Libraries / BLS historical sources
12. [NALC — Letter Carrier Paychart Effective September 8, 2001 (pay scale reference; 2000 figures estimated from adjacent contract year)](https://www.nalc.org/news/research-and-economics/body/paychart0901.pdf), National Association of Letter Carriers
13. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
14. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
15. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
16. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
17. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Tool eras

18. [USPS — "Pieces of Mail Handled, Number of Post Offices, Income, and Expenses Since 1789" (colonial mail history reference)](https://about.usps.com/who/profile/history/pieces-of-mail-since-1789.htm), U.S. Postal Service
19. [National Postal Museum — "On the Road" (mail carrier vehicle and transport history)](https://postalmuseum.si.edu/on-the-road), Smithsonian National Postal Museum
20. [USPS Facts — "Free City Delivery" (1863 launch: 49 offices, 450 carriers; growth to 796 cities by 1900)](https://facts.usps.com/free-city-delivery/), U.S. Postal Service
21. [National Association of Letter Carriers — "The Beginning" (NALC founding 1889, 4,600 carriers represented)](https://www.nalc.org/about/our-history/the-beginning), National Association of Letter Carriers
22. [Wikipedia — Rural Free Delivery (1896 launch; 37,000+ carriers by 1901; permanent service 1902)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rural_Free_Delivery), Wikipedia
23. [Jalopnik — "The Evolution of the US Mail Truck" (1899 automobile test; 1921 fleet of 4,000 trucks; 1923 Ford dominance)](https://www.jalopnik.com/2013330/evolution-us-mail-truck-use-personal-vehicles/), Jalopnik
24. [GAO — "U.S. Postal Service: Progress Made in Implementing Automated Letter Sequencing, but Some Issues Remain" (GGD-98-73)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GAOREPORTS-GGD-98-73/html/GAOREPORTS-GGD-98-73.htm), U.S. Government Accountability Office
25. [USPS / National Postal Museum — "1970-2000: Improving Productivity and Service" (OCR 1982; DPS; 159,435 to 197,202 pieces per employee 1980-1990)](https://postalmuseum.si.edu/exhibition/america%E2%80%99s-mailing-industry-the-united-states-postal-service/1970%E2%80%932000-improving), Smithsonian National Postal Museum
26. [Wikipedia — Grumman LLV (entered service 1986; 100,000+ purchased 1986-1994; 57% of fleet still active 2024; 24-year design life exceeded)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grumman_LLV), Wikipedia
27. [USPS Newsroom — "USPS Headquarters Showcases New Next Generation Delivery Vehicle" (NGDV entering service 2024)](https://about.usps.com/newsroom/national-releases/2024/1030-usps-headquarters-showcases-new-next-generation-delivery-vehicle.htm), U.S. Postal Service
28. [USPS — Informed Delivery Year in Review April 2024 to March 2025 (72.9 million active users, 94% satisfaction)](https://www.usps.com/business/pdf/informed-delivery-year-review.pdf), U.S. Postal Service
29. [USPS OIG — Security and Efficiency of the New Carrier Scanners and Electronic Locks (197,000 MDD-TR devices; GPS, 4G, hazard maps)](https://www.uspsoig.gov/reports/audit-reports/security-and-efficiency-new-carrier-scanners-and-electronic-locks), USPS Office of Inspector General
30. [USPS OIG — Postal Service Dynamic Route Optimization and Cost Savings Initiative (2024 audit)](https://www.uspsoig.gov/reports/audit-reports/postal-service-dynamic-route-optimization-and-cost-savings-initiative), USPS Office of Inspector General
31. [DataCenter Knowledge — How the USPS Is Using AI at the Edge to Improve Mail (Edge Compute Infrastructure; 20M packages/day)](https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/ai-data-centers/how-the-us-postal-service-is-using-ai-at-the-edge-to-improve-mail), DataCenter Knowledge
32. [Bear Cognition — AI-Powered Bid and Route Optimization Tool for USPS Contractors launch (Dec 2025)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bear-cognition-launches-ai-powered-bid--route-optimization-tool-for-usps-contractors-302631773.html), PR Newswire / Bear Cognition

### Forecasts and exposure studies

33. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 43-5052 Postal service mail carriers (2025: 316.4 thousand; 2035: 315.5 thousand; -0.3%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=43-5052&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
34. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 43-5052 Postal Service Mail Carriers: probability 0.68, rank 375 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

### Historical notes

35. [USPS — "Pieces of Mail Handled, Number of Post Offices, Income, and Expenses Since 1789" (founding postal history reference)](https://about.usps.com/who/profile/history/pieces-of-mail-since-1789.htm), U.S. Postal Service
36. [USPS Facts — "Free City Delivery" (Act of March 3, 1863; 49 offices; 450 carriers; street-address requirement)](https://facts.usps.com/free-city-delivery/), U.S. Postal Service
37. [NALC — "The Beginning" (founding August 30, 1889; 4,600 carriers in 52 branches by 1890)](https://www.nalc.org/about/our-history/the-beginning), National Association of Letter Carriers
38. [Wikipedia — Rural Free Delivery (October 1, 1896 launch; West Virginia; 82 routes; 37,000+ carriers by 1901)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rural_Free_Delivery), Wikipedia
39. [Wikipedia — 1970 United States postal strike (210,000+ workers; $6,176 starting salary; Postal Reorganization Act)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_United_States_postal_strike), Wikipedia
40. [GAO — "U.S. Postal Service: Progress Made in Implementing Automated Letter Sequencing" (GGD-98-73; 1982 OCR deployment; DPS history)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GAOREPORTS-GGD-98-73/html/GAOREPORTS-GGD-98-73.htm), U.S. Government Accountability Office
41. [USPS OIG — Analysis of Historical Mail Volume Trends (FY 2006 peak 213B pieces; FY 2023 109B pieces; 49% decline)](https://www.uspsoig.gov/reports/white-papers/analysis-historical-mail-volume-trends), USPS Office of Inspector General
42. [Federal News Network — USPS ends FY 2025 with $9.5 billion net loss; Postmaster General warns of insolvency (March 2026)](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/agency-oversight/2026/03/usps-cutting-delivery-days-on-the-table-as-agency-runs-out-of-cash-postmaster-general-tells-lawmakers/), Federal News Network

### Predecessors & successors

43. [USPS — "Pieces of Mail Handled, Number of Post Offices, Income, and Expenses Since 1789"](https://about.usps.com/who/profile/history/pieces-of-mail-since-1789.htm), U.S. Postal Service
44. [USPS Facts — "Free City Delivery" (1863 carriers preferentially drawn from Civil War veteran pool)](https://facts.usps.com/free-city-delivery/), U.S. Postal Service

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Postal Service Mail Carriers (43-5052.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/43-5052.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Postal Service Workers](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/office-and-administrative-support/postal-service-workers.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS OEWS May 2024 — Postal Service Mail Carriers (43-5052) (national flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), accessed 2026-10-07
- [Federal News Network — USPS ends FY 2025 with $9.5 billion net loss; Postmaster General warns of insolvency (Mar 2026)](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/agency-oversight/2026/03/usps-cutting-delivery-days-on-the-table-as-agency-runs-out-of-cash-postmaster-general-tells-lawmakers/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Federal News Network — Over 10,000 USPS employees take early retirement, meeting workforce-reduction target (Aug 2025)](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/workforce/2025/08/over-10000-usps-employees-take-early-retirement-offer-meeting-target-to-shrink-workforce/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [USPS OIG — Security and Efficiency of the New Carrier Scanners and Electronic Locks (Nov 2024)](https://www.uspsoig.gov/reports/audit-reports/security-and-efficiency-new-carrier-scanners-and-electronic-locks), accessed 2026-06-03
- [USPS OIG — Postal Service Dynamic Route Optimization and Cost Savings Initiative](https://www.uspsoig.gov/reports/audit-reports/postal-service-dynamic-route-optimization-and-cost-savings-initiative), accessed 2026-06-03
- [USPS OIG — City Delivery Operations: Nationwide Route Management](https://www.uspsoig.gov/reports/audit-reports/city-delivery-operations-nationwide-route-management), accessed 2026-06-03
- [USPS — Informed Delivery Year in Review April 2024 to March 2025 (72.9 million active users)](https://www.usps.com/business/pdf/informed-delivery-year-review.pdf), accessed 2026-06-03
- [DataCenter Knowledge — How the USPS Is Using AI at the Edge to Improve Mail (Edge Compute Infrastructure Program, 20M packages/day)](https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/ai-data-centers/how-the-us-postal-service-is-using-ai-at-the-edge-to-improve-mail), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Bear Cognition — AI-Powered Bid and Route Optimization Tool for USPS Contractors launch (Dec 2025)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bear-cognition-launches-ai-powered-bid--route-optimization-tool-for-usps-contractors-302631773.html), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.