# Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks

US SOC code 43-5061. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/43-5061

Also called: Production planner, Production scheduler, Expediter, Expediting clerk, Material planner.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **390,160** US production, planning, and expediting clerks, with median pay of **$59,650** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **393,980**, in May 2023, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml) of **150,000** from 1940, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for production, planning, and expediting clerks: Advanced Planning and Scheduling, 2010 to 2024. APS platforms reduced the headcount required to manage a given volume of production planning transactions.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 1.3% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=43-5061&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **51.9%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.88** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.88. BLS counted **281,930** of these jobs in May 2013 and **390,160** in May 2025 (+38%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1903
- Latest US employment: 390,160 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $59,650 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [9]
- Outlook: -1.3% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [23]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1940 | 150,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., IPUMS USA [1] |
| 1956 | n/a | $3,900 (estimate) | Est., Derived estimate [6] |
| 1960 | 300,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., US Census Bureau [2] |
| 1980 | 420,000 (estimate) | $14,500 (estimate) | Est., IPUMS USA (employment) [3]; Est., University of Missouri Libraries (pay) [7] |
| 2000 | 330,120 | $30,590 | BLS OEWS 2000 [4] |
| 2003 | 277,030 | $34,820 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 285,940 | $36,340 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 287,980 | $37,590 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 286,160 | $38,620 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 283,930 | $39,690 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 281,660 | $40,480 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 274,140 | $41,560 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 266,170 | $42,220 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 272,910 | $43,100 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 278,490 | $43,740 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 281,930 | $44,630 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 297,050 | $45,670 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 309,110 | $46,150 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 321,780 | $46,760 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 336,000 | $46,670 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 350,150 | $47,580 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 370,380 | $48,260 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 362,090 | $49,640 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 367,200 | $48,040 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 389,920 | $50,630 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 393,980 | $53,900 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 385,000 | $57,770 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 390,160 | $59,650 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (88)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA -- 1940 Census of Population, manufacturing clerical workforce tabulation (occupation category: clerical workers in manufacturing)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. [US Census Bureau -- 1960 Census of Population, industry-by-occupation supplement: manufacturing clerical workers](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1962/dec/population-pc-s1-27.html), US Census Bureau
3. [IPUMS USA -- Occupation codes and documentation, 1980 Census: "production coordinators and expediters" (1980 SOC code 379)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ1980.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
4. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [Derived estimate: ~$3,900 median annual earnings, anchored on BLS historical manufacturing clerical earnings (~1956), adjusted upward for production-control/scheduling clerks per the technical nature of the role](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1950-1959), Future History derived estimate (BLS historical manufacturing clerical basis)
7. [University of Missouri Libraries -- "Prices and Wages by Decade: 1980-1989" (BLS Occupational Employment Survey, manufacturing clerical wages)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1980-1989), University of Missouri Libraries / BLS historical sources
8. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
9. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
10. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

11. [Wikipedia -- Scientific management (Frederick Taylor, planning room, functional foremanship)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management), Wikipedia
12. [Encyclopedia.com -- "Taylor and Scientific Management" (instruction card clerks and planning department)](https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/taylor-and-scientific-management), Encyclopedia.com
13. [The Workers and Social Change -- National WWII Museum: Manufacturing Victory (wartime workforce expansion)](https://manufacturing-victory.org/history/workers.php), The National WWII Museum
14. [BLS Monthly Labor Review -- "Compensation from World War II through the Great Society" (manufacturing clerical workforce 1940-1945)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/cwc/compensation-from-world-war-ii-through-the-great-society.pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics
15. [Wikipedia -- Material requirements planning (Orlicky, Black and Decker 1964, IBM 1401, 700 companies by 1975)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Material_requirements_planning), Wikipedia
16. [The Grain Pro -- "The Evolution of Material Requirements Planning" (MRP timeline: 1964 inception, APICS 1972 standardization, 8,000 companies by 1981)](https://blog.thegrain.pro/en/evolution_of_mrp), The Grain Pro
17. [SAP -- "What is ERP?" (SAP R/3 history, 1992 release, ERP replacing standalone MRP II)](https://www.sap.com/resources/what-is-erp), SAP
18. [o9 Solutions -- AI Production Scheduling: execution-ready scheduling with intra-day replanning](https://o9solutions.com/solutions/supply-chain-planning/production-scheduling), o9 Solutions
19. [RELEX Solutions -- Executive guide to AI-driven production planning and scheduling (25% resource utilization improvement case studies)](https://www.relexsolutions.com/resources/ai-driven-production-planning-scheduling-guide/), RELEX Solutions
20. [Kinaxis -- Maestro Agents: agentic era for supply chain orchestration (press release, October 2025)](https://www.kinaxis.com/en/news/press-releases/2025/kinaxis-accelerates-agentic-era-supply-chain-orchestration-launch-maestro), Kinaxis
21. [Scope Recruiting -- "Which Supply Chain Roles Will AI Replace by 2026?" (entry-level transactional clerks: 90-95% reduction likelihood by 2035)](https://www.scoperecruiting.com/blog/supply-chain-roles-replaced-by-ai-2026), Scope Recruiting
22. [Deloitte Insights -- The agentic supply chain in manufacturing (2025): planner becomes orchestrator of conflicting stakeholder interests](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/manufacturing-industrial-products/agentic-supply-chain-artificial-intelligence-manufacturing.html), Deloitte

### Forecasts and exposure studies

23. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 43-5061 Production, planning, and expediting clerks (2025: 392.1 thousand; 2035: 387.1 thousand; -1.3%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=43-5061&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
24. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 43-5061 Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks: probability 0.88, rank 513 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
25. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 43-5061.00, human-rated β 0.519)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

26. [Encyclopedia.com -- "Taylor and Scientific Management" (1911 publication, planning room and functional foremanship)](https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/taylor-and-scientific-management), Encyclopedia.com
27. [Encyclopedia.com -- "World War II Labor Measures" (War Production Board, workforce mobilization 1942-1945)](https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/world-war-ii-labor-measures), Encyclopedia.com
28. [The Grain Pro -- "The Evolution of Material Requirements Planning" (APICS standardization 1972)](https://blog.thegrain.pro/en/evolution_of_mrp), The Grain Pro
29. [Wikipedia -- Material requirements planning (8,000 companies by 1981)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Material_requirements_planning), Wikipedia
30. [SAP -- "What is ERP?" (SAP R/3, 1992 release, ERP transformation of manufacturing management)](https://www.sap.com/resources/what-is-erp), SAP
31. [World Economic Forum -- Future of Jobs Report 2025 (clerical role displacement; AI-driven structural labor market churn)](https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/), World Economic Forum

### Predecessors & successors

32. [Wikipedia -- Scientific management (Taylor planning room and functional foremanship)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management), Wikipedia
33. [BLS OOH -- Logisticians (13-1081): 18% projected employment growth 2024-34, median wage $79,400](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/business-and-financial/logisticians.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks (43-5061.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/43-5061.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS OES May 2023 — 43-5061 Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks](https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes435061.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS OOH — Material Recording Clerks (includes 43-5061, -1% 2024-2034 projection)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/office-and-administrative-support/material-recording-clerks.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Kinaxis — Maestro Agents launch: agentic era for supply chain orchestration (Oct 2025)](https://www.kinaxis.com/en/news/press-releases/2025/kinaxis-accelerates-agentic-era-supply-chain-orchestration-launch-maestro), accessed 2026-06-03
- [o9 Solutions — AI Production Scheduling platform overview](https://o9solutions.com/solutions/supply-chain-planning/production-scheduling), accessed 2026-06-03
- [RELEX Solutions — Executive guide to AI-driven production planning and scheduling](https://www.relexsolutions.com/resources/ai-driven-production-planning-scheduling-guide/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Deloitte Insights — The agentic supply chain in manufacturing (2025)](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/manufacturing-industrial-products/agentic-supply-chain-artificial-intelligence-manufacturing.html), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Scope Recruiting — Which Supply Chain Roles Will AI Replace by 2026?](https://www.scoperecruiting.com/blog/supply-chain-roles-replaced-by-ai-2026), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Scope Recruiting — Supply Chain Skills for AI: What Actually Matters in 2026](https://www.scoperecruiting.com/blog/supply-chain-skills-ai), accessed 2026-06-03
- [PlanetTogether — The Role of AI in Production Scheduling](https://www.planettogether.com/aps/digital-transformation/the-role-of-ai-in-production-scheduling), accessed 2026-06-03
- [WEF — How agentic AI is set to revolutionize supply planning (Dec 2025)](https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/12/agentic-ai-change-supply-planning/), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.