# Carpenters

US SOC code 47-2031. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/47-2031

Also called: Finish carpenter, Rough carpenter, Framing carpenter, Trim carpenter, Cabinetmaker carpenter.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **670,090** US carpenters, with median pay of **$60,580** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **985,990**, in May 2006. The earliest figure here is [a Census count](https://usa.ipums.org/usa-action/variables/OCC1950) of **720,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for carpenters: Katerra factory-construction bet + ICON 3D printing + mass timber expansion, 2010 to 2022.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 3.9% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=47-2031&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **8.9%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.72** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.72. BLS counted **580,570** of these jobs in May 2013 and **670,090** in May 2025 (+15%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Carpenters employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1881
- Latest US employment: 670,090 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $60,580 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [16]
- Outlook: +3.9% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [35]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 72310)
  - Employment, 2020: 155,690. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [9]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 72310 Carpenters, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$52,400. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [19]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 72310 Carpenters, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.
- **United Kingdom** (UK SOC 5316)
  - Employment, 2025: 56,000. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [12]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14): employee jobs in SOC 5316 Carpenters and joiners, United Kingdom, 2025 (ASHE "number of jobs", thousands x1000; excludes self-employment). Open Government Licence v3.0.
  - Median pay, 2025: £33,797. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [22]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14.7a): median gross annual pay for all employee jobs in SOC 5316 Carpenters and joiners, United Kingdom, 2025. Open Government Licence v3.0.
- **Australia** (ANZSCO 3312)
  - Employment, 2025: 150,600. Source: ABS Labour Force Survey March 2026 [13]. ABS Labour Force Survey (Detailed), table EQ08: employed persons in ANZSCO 3312 Carpenters and Joiners, national (summed across sex and state/territory), annual average of 4 quarterly estimates.
  - Median pay, 2025: A$91,520. Source: ABS Employee Earnings May 2025 [23]. Annualised (x52) from A$1,760 median weekly earnings. ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025: median pay for full-time non-managerial employees paid at the adult rate, before tax. Surfaced via the Jobs and Skills Australia occupation profile for ANZSCO 3312.

### All 31 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 720,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1900 [1] |
| 1920 | 860,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1920 [2] |
| 1940 | 600,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., IPUMS USA [1] |
| 1950 | 980,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1950 [3] |
| 1970 | 1,020,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [4] |
| 1980 | n/a | $16,500 (estimate) | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [14] |
| 1990 | 1,060,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [4] |
| 2000 | 858,890 | $32,640 | BLS OEWS 2000 [5] |
| 2003 | 852,080 | $34,250 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 882,490 | $34,900 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 935,920 | $35,580 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 985,990 | $36,550 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 969,670 | $37,660 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 899,920 | $38,940 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 743,760 | $39,470 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 620,410 | $39,530 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 578,910 | $40,010 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 567,820 | $39,940 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 580,570 | $40,500 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 617,060 | $40,820 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 639,190 | $42,090 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 676,980 | $43,600 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 693,050 | $45,170 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 718,730 | $46,590 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 734,170 | $48,330 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 699,300 | $49,520 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 668,060 | $48,260 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 689,770 | $51,390 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 700,290 | $56,350 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 697,740 | $59,310 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 670,090 | $60,580 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (113)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA — OCC1950 harmonized occupational variable documentation: 1900 Census carpenters and joiners enumerated via the 1950-basis classification system (University of Minnesota)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa-action/variables/OCC1950), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. [U.S. Census Bureau, 1920 Census, Volume IV: Population — Occupations (carpenters employment count)](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1923/dec/vol-04-occupations.html), U.S. Census Bureau
3. [U.S. Census Bureau, 1950 Census of Population, Vol. II: Characteristics of the Population (carpenters employment count)](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1953/dec/population-vol-02.html), U.S. Census Bureau
4. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Carpenters (1974-75 edition, historical employment context)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
8. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
9. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
10. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 5315, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2002](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2002/2002-table-14.zip), [2006](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2006consistentw_007methodology/2006-table-14.zip), [2010](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2010revised/2010-revised-table-14.zip), [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip)
11. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 5316, United Kingdom, 2022. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), Office for National Statistics
12. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 5316, United Kingdom, 2025. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip), Office for National Statistics
13. [ABS: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, table EQ08 (Employed persons by Occupation unit group, ANZSCO 2013), March 2026](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/latest-release), Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Wage series

14. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Carpenters (1980-81 edition wage context); inflation adjustment via BLS CPI-U calculator](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
15. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
16. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
17. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
18. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
19. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
20. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 5315, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2002](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2002/2002-table-14.zip), [2006](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2006consistentw_007methodology/2006-table-14.zip), [2010](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2010revised/2010-revised-table-14.zip), [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip)
21. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 5316, United Kingdom, 2022. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), Office for National Statistics
22. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 5316, United Kingdom, 2025. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip), Office for National Statistics
23. [Jobs and Skills Australia: Carpenters and Joiners (ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025)](https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/data/occupation-and-industry-profiles/occupations/3312-carpenters-and-joiners), Jobs and Skills Australia / Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Tool eras

24. [Wikipedia — Balloon framing: history of timber framing and the shift to dimensional lumber construction (Chicago, 1832)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balloon_framing), Wikipedia
25. [Wikipedia — Carpenter: origins of the occupation, historical tools, and the transition from timber framing to balloon framing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carpenter), Wikipedia
26. [Wikipedia — United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America: founding (August 1881), Peter J. McGuire, membership history, eight-hour day campaign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Brotherhood_of_Carpenters_and_Joiners_of_America), Wikipedia
27. [Wikipedia — Sears Catalog Home: program 1908-1942, approximately 70,000 homes sold, kit contents, and carpenter/contractor assembly role](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Catalog_Home), Wikipedia
28. [Wikipedia — Levittown, New York: construction (1947-1951), 17,447 homes, 26-step assembly-line process, 30 houses/day peak rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levittown,_New_York), Wikipedia
29. [Wikipedia — Nail gun: first air-powered nail gun introduced 1950, designed by Morris Pynoos, 40-60 nails/minute capacity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nail_gun), Wikipedia
30. [Wikipedia — Mass timber: engineered wood history, nail-laminated and glue-laminated timber origins, growing adoption since 2012 for commercial construction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_timber), Wikipedia
31. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Carpenters (2024 edition: discussion of prefabricated components, modular construction, and their effect on employment)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
32. [Wikipedia — Katerra: founded 2015, SoftBank investment over $2 billion, 7,500 employees at peak, bankruptcy June 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katerra), Wikipedia
33. [BLS National Employment Matrix — 47-2031 Carpenters (2024-34 projections: 959.0 thousand baseline, 1,002.1 thousand projected, +4.5%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=47-2031&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
34. [US Congress — Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (H.R. 5376, signed August 16, 2022; green-building and energy-efficiency provisions)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376), US Congress

### Forecasts and exposure studies

35. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 47-2031 Carpenters (2025: 889.7 thousand; 2035: 924.7 thousand; +3.9%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=47-2031&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
36. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 47-2031 Carpenters: probability 0.72, rank 398 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
37. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 47-2031.00, human-rated β 0.089)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

38. [Wikipedia — Balloon framing: first documented use (~1832, Chicago), how it differed from timber framing, skill requirements, and displacement of traditional joinery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balloon_framing), Wikipedia
39. [Wikipedia — United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America: founding (August 1881), Peter J. McGuire, membership trajectory to 100,000 (1900) and 300,000 (1920)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Brotherhood_of_Carpenters_and_Joiners_of_America), Wikipedia
40. [Wikipedia — Sears Catalog Home: program 1908-1942, 70,000+ homes sold, 30,000 parts per kit, carpenter/contractor assembly context](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Catalog_Home), Wikipedia
41. [Wikipedia — Levittown, New York: construction timeline (1947-1951), 17,447 homes, 26-step process, 30 houses/day peak, non-union labor context](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levittown,_New_York), Wikipedia
42. [Wikipedia — Nail gun: first air-powered model introduced 1950 (Morris Pynoos), 40-60 nails/minute, commercialized for housing construction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nail_gun), Wikipedia
43. [BLS OEWS May 2010 — 47-2031 Carpenters (620,410 employment) (national flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
44. [Wikipedia — Katerra: founded 2015, SoftBank investment \>$2B, 7,500 employees at peak, bankruptcy June 2021, layoffs without severance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katerra), Wikipedia
45. [BLS National Employment Matrix — 47-2031 Carpenters (2024-34: 959.0k → 1,002.1k, +4.5%, ~89,100 annual openings)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=47-2031&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Predecessors & successors

46. [Wikipedia — Carpenter: origins, medieval joinery, colonial-era "house wright" terminology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carpenter), Wikipedia
47. [Wikipedia — Seabee (United States Naval Construction Battalions): WWII construction training, skilled-trade recruitment, and postwar civilian pipeline for building-trades workers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seabee), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Carpenters (2024-2034 projection)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [O\*NET 30.3 — Carpenters (47-2031.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/47-2031.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [McKinsey — The Impact and Opportunities of Automation in Construction](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/operations/our-insights/the-impact-and-opportunities-of-automation-in-construction), accessed 2026-06-03
- [HBI — Fall 2025 Construction Labor Market Report](https://hbi.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Fall-2025-Final-Construction-Labor-Market-Report-Update.pdf), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Fixr.com — Construction Industry Labor Report 2025 (wages up 15% since 2020)](https://www.fixr.com/articles/construction-industry-labor-report), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Autodesk — 2026 AI Trends in Construction: 25 Expert Insights](https://www.autodesk.com/blogs/construction/2026-ai-trends-25-experts-share-insights/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Togal.AI — Peer-Reviewed Study: Togal.AI vs. On-Screen Takeoff (Univ. of Kansas, Mar 2025)](https://www.togal.ai/case-study/peer-reviewed-study-togal-ai-vs-on-screen-takeoff), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Fortune — US construction needs 500,000 new workers in 2026 (Feb 2026)](https://fortune.com/2026/02/07/us-construction-industry-employment-outlook-500000-new-workers-ai-boom-infrastructure-skilled-trades/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Randstad USA — 2026 Construction Salary Guide](https://www.randstadusa.com/employers/salary-guide/construction/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Blueprint Robotics / Strucsoft — 2.5x production volume with wood framing automation](https://strucsoftsolutions.com/blog/blueprint-robotics-strucsoft-wood-framing-software/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Procore AI — Copilot: predictive risk insights and schedule forecasting from field data](https://www.procore.com/ai), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.