# First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers

US SOC code 49-1011. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/49-1011

Also called: Maintenance supervisor, Maintenance manager, Facilities maintenance supervisor, Service manager, Shop supervisor.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **617,500** US first-line supervisors of mechanics, installers, and repairers, with median pay of **$79,860** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_shopmen) of **120,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era in this work: IoT sensors and predictive maintenance platforms, 2011 to 2022.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 4.1% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=49-1011&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **26.9%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.003** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.003. BLS counted **428,620** of these jobs in May 2013 and **617,500** in May 2025. The count moved sharply in one step, May 2020 to May 2021, when BLS changed how it estimates these counts, so no change is derived here.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1875
- Latest US employment: 617,500 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $79,860 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [8]
- Outlook: +4.1% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [27]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 120,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [1] |
| 1943 | 280,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Lumen Learning [2] |
| 1956 | n/a | $5,400 (estimate) | Est., University of Missouri Libraries [6] |
| 1970 | 350,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Beyond the Numbers [3] |
| 2000 | 421,740 | $44,250 | BLS OEWS 2000 [4] |
| 2003 | 445,520 | $48,620 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 459,440 | $50,340 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 455,690 | $51,980 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 450,710 | $53,890 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 443,790 | $55,380 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 443,840 | $57,300 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 427,560 | $58,610 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 415,900 | $59,150 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 418,530 | $59,850 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 421,650 | $60,250 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 428,620 | $61,220 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 434,810 | $62,150 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 445,510 | $63,010 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 453,330 | $63,540 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 460,370 | $64,780 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 471,820 | $66,140 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 485,700 | $67,460 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 475,000 | $70,240 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 526,240 | $71,260 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 559,050 | $73,140 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 589,880 | $75,820 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 600,680 | $78,300 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 617,500 | $79,860 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (91)

### Employment series

1. [Wikipedia — Railroad shopmen: at the turn of the 20th century approximately one-fifth of railroad employees worked as shopmen, supervised by foremen at each shop section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_shopmen), Wikipedia
2. [Lumen Learning — Training Within Industry: TWI trained approximately 1.7 million supervisors in US war industries 1940-1945](https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wmintrobusinessx51xmaster/chapter/reading-fredrick-taylors-scientific-management/), Lumen Learning
3. [BLS Beyond the Numbers — "Forty years of falling manufacturing employment": US manufacturing employment history 1970-2010](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [University of Missouri Libraries — "Prices and Wages by Decade: 1950-1959" (compiled mid-century manufacturing supervisor wage)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1950-1959), University of Missouri Libraries
7. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
8. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
9. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

10. [FTMaintenance CMMS — History of Maintenance: The Evolution of Industrial and Facility Maintenance Practices (craft-era corrective maintenance)](https://ftmaintenance.com/maintenance-management/history-of-maintenance/), FTMaintenance
11. [Wikipedia — Railroad shopmen: structure of railroad repair shops and foreman authority, 1870s-1900s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_shopmen), Wikipedia
12. [Wikipedia — Scientific management: Taylor's functional foremanship and the transformation of the foreman role (1911)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management), Wikipedia
13. [Cairn.info — "The Emergence of the Foreman" (Le Mouvement Social 2008): foreman authority in early 20th century factories](https://shs.cairn.info/journal-le-mouvement-social1-2008-3-page-47?lang=en), Cairn.info / Le Mouvement Social
14. [Lumen Learning / Introduction to Business — Training Within Industry (TWI): 1.7 million supervisors trained in US war industries 1940-1945](https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wmintrobusinessx51xmaster/chapter/reading-fredrick-taylors-scientific-management/), Lumen Learning
15. [AllAboutLean.com — A Brief History of Maintenance: post-WWII preventive maintenance and Japanese influence on maintenance management](https://www.allaboutlean.com/maintenance-history/), AllAboutLean.com
16. [FTMaintenance — A Brief History of CMMS Software: from 1965 IBM mainframe punch-card systems to PC-based desktop CMMS](https://ftmaintenance.com/cmms/brief-history-cmms-software/), FTMaintenance
17. [Medium — The History and Evolution of CMMS: 1960s mainframes, 1970s minicomputers, 1980s PC-era CMMS](https://medium.com/@suyashkaushik/the-history-and-evolution-of-cmms-b4c18881e0ca), Medium / Suyash Kaushik
18. [Wikipedia — Total productive maintenance: Nippondenso/JIPM 1971 origin, Seiichi Nakajima, 90% breakdown reduction at Denso](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_productive_maintenance), Wikipedia
19. [CertiProf — The History of Total Productive Maintenance: Origins and Evolution (Nakajima, JIPM, Nippondenso 1971)](https://certiprof.com/blogs/news/history-total-productive-maintenance), CertiProf
20. [Brightly Software — A History of Maintenance and How CMMS Has Changed in 200+ Years: enterprise CMMS and EAM era 1990s-2010s](https://www.brightlysoftware.com/blog/history-maintenance-how-cmms-has-changed-200-years), Brightly Software
21. [Augury — Industrial AI for Uptime and Productivity: platform overview, 1.1B+ machine hours of training data, 310% ROI (Forrester TEI)](https://www.augury.com/), Augury
22. [ISA Blog — The Past and the Future of Industrial Maintenance Management: IoT and predictive maintenance in plant management](https://blog.isa.org/past-and-future-industrial-maintenance-management), International Society of Automation
23. [OxMaint — Agentic AI in Maintenance: Fully Autonomous Work Orders (work order creation under 15 seconds vs. 45 min-4 hrs manually)](https://oxmaint.com/blog/post/agentic-ai-maintenance-autonomous-work-orders), OxMaint
24. [Limble — AI-Powered PM Builder and Resource Planning: auto-drafts PM tasks from asset manuals (September 2025)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/limble-announces-ai-features-to-drive-more-efficient-maintenance-and-asset-management-302546276.html), Limble / PR Newswire
25. [IBM Maximo 9.1 — AI-powered asset management revolution: watsonx.ai generative assistant for natural-language queries (June 2025)](https://erp.today/ibm-maximo-9-1-the-ai-powered-asset-management-revolution-is-here/), ERP.today / IBM
26. [Facilities Management Advisor — How AI and Tech Will Free Up Time for Facilities Managers in 2026](https://facilitiesmanagementadvisor.com/maintenance-and-operations/how-ai-and-other-tech-will-free-up-time-for-facilities-managers-in-2026/), Facilities Management Advisor

### Forecasts and exposure studies

27. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 49-1011 First-line supervisors of mechanics, installers, and repairers (2025: 629.0 thousand; 2035: 654.5 thousand; +4.1%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=49-1011&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
28. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 49-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers: probability 0.003, rank 2 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
29. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 49-1011.00, human-rated β 0.269)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

30. [FTMaintenance — History of Maintenance: Second Industrial Revolution and the emergence of electrical maintenance (1880s)](https://ftmaintenance.com/maintenance-management/history-of-maintenance/), FTMaintenance
31. [Wikipedia — Railroad shopmen: 1922 Great Railroad Shopmen's Strike context (400,000 shopmen, labor-management boundary)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_shopmen), Wikipedia
32. [Lumen Learning — Training Within Industry: 1.7 million supervisors trained at 16,500 US plants 1940-1945](https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wmintrobusinessx51xmaster/chapter/reading-fredrick-taylors-scientific-management/), Lumen Learning
33. [Wikipedia — Total productive maintenance: Nippondenso wins first JIPM prize 1971; 90% breakdown reduction (Nakajima, TPM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_productive_maintenance), Wikipedia
34. [AllAboutLean.com — A Brief History of Maintenance: lean manufacturing and TPM adoption in Western industry, 1990s](https://www.allaboutlean.com/maintenance-history/), AllAboutLean.com
35. [ERP.today — IBM Maximo 9.1: the AI-powered asset management revolution (watsonx.ai generative assistant, June 2025)](https://erp.today/ibm-maximo-9-1-the-ai-powered-asset-management-revolution-is-here/), ERP.today / IBM

### Predecessors & successors

36. [Wikipedia — Railroad shopmen: shop foremen came from the senior tradespeople (machinists, boilermakers, carpenters) in each shop section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_shopmen), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 -- First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers (49-1011.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/49-1011.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS OEWS May 2024 -- First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers (median $78,300; 617,500 employed)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes491011.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook -- Installation, Maintenance, and Repair (3-4% projected growth 2024-2034)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Augury -- Industrial AI for Uptime and Productivity (310% ROI per Forrester TEI; Canfor $5.5M saved)](https://www.augury.com/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [IBM -- Maximo 9.1: generative AI assistant powered by watsonx.ai (June 2025)](https://erp.today/ibm-maximo-9-1-the-ai-powered-asset-management-revolution-is-here/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Limble -- AI-Powered PM Builder and Resource Planning announced (September 2025)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/limble-announces-ai-features-to-drive-more-efficient-maintenance-and-asset-management-302546276.html), accessed 2026-06-03
- [UpKeep -- AI-native CMMS: work order generation, technician scheduling, failure prevention](https://upkeep.com/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [OxMaint -- Agentic AI in Maintenance: Fully Autonomous Work Orders (work order creation under 15 seconds)](https://oxmaint.com/blog/post/agentic-ai-maintenance-autonomous-work-orders), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Tractian -- Industrial Copilot: CMMS + IBM Maximo integration](https://tractian.com/en/solutions/integrations/ibm-maximo), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Facilities Management Advisor -- How AI and Tech Will Free Up Time for Facilities Managers in 2026](https://facilitiesmanagementadvisor.com/maintenance-and-operations/how-ai-and-other-tech-will-free-up-time-for-facilities-managers-in-2026/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 -- GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Tractian -- Best Predictive Maintenance Software 2026](https://tractian.com/en/blog/best-predictive-maintenance-software-pm), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.