# Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians

US SOC code 49-3011. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/49-3011

Also called: Aircraft mechanic, Aviation maintenance technician, AMT, A&P mechanic, Airframe and powerplant mechanic.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **138,090** US aircraft mechanics and service technicians, with median pay of **$79,870** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.faa.gov/about/history/brief_history) of **3,500** from 1927, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for aircraft mechanics and service technicians: Composite airframes + condition-based maintenance, 2005 to 2020.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 5.4% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=49-3011&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **6%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.71** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.71. BLS counted **115,410** of these jobs in May 2013 and **138,090** in May 2025 (+20%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1903
- Latest US employment: 138,090 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $79,870 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [11]
- Outlook: +5.4% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [28]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 72404)
  - Employment, 2020: 18,495. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [8]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 72404 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$81,000. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [14]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 72404 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1927 | 3,500 (estimate) | n/a | Est., FAA History [1] |
| 1942 | 150,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Hyperwar [2] |
| 1965 | 85,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., NBAA [3] |
| 1975 | n/a | $16,000 (estimate) | Est., BLS Monthly Labor Review [9] |
| 2001 | 135,250 | $41,990 | BLS OEWS 2001 (employment) [4]; BLS OEWS 2001 (pay) [10] |
| 2003 | 117,180 | $43,560 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 112,830 | $45,290 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 115,120 | $47,310 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 118,210 | $47,740 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 118,780 | $49,010 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 116,310 | $51,390 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 112,130 | $52,810 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 117,510 | $53,420 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 117,320 | $54,590 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 119,160 | $55,210 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 115,410 | $55,980 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 116,830 | $56,990 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 124,040 | $58,370 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 128,570 | $60,170 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 131,500 | $61,020 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 131,690 | $62,920 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 133,310 | $64,090 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 128,300 | $66,440 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 125,440 | $65,380 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 134,070 | $70,010 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 137,630 | $75,020 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 136,390 | $78,680 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 138,090 | $79,870 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (94)

### Employment series

1. [FAA History — "A Brief History of the FAA" (Air Commerce Act mechanic licensing, 1926-1927)](https://www.faa.gov/about/history/brief_history), Federal Aviation Administration
2. [Hyperwar — "The Army Air Forces in World War II, Volume VI: Men and Planes, Chapter 19" (AAF maintenance organization)](https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/VI/AAF-VI-19.html), Hyperwar Foundation / USAF Historical Division
3. [NBAA — "Aviation Maintenance Has Come a Long Way Since 1903" (jet age maintenance workforce expansion)](https://nbaa.org/aircraft-operations/maintenance/aviation-maintenance-has-come-a-long-way-since-1903/), National Business Aviation Association
4. [BLS — "In 2001, aircraft mechanics and service technicians certified..." (BLS OES FAA employment analysis)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/faa.pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
6. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
8. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Wage series

9. [BLS Monthly Labor Review — Historical analysis of aviation industry wages (IAM and TWU contract history, 1970s)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/), Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. [BLS OES 2001 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes01nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
12. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
13. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
14. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Tool eras

15. [FAA — "Charles E. Taylor: The Unsung Hero of Kitty Hawk" (Taylor's engine construction tools and methods)](https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/about/history/pioneers/Charles_E_Taylor.pdf), Federal Aviation Administration
16. [NBAA — "Aviation Maintenance Has Come a Long Way Since 1903"](https://nbaa.org/aircraft-operations/maintenance/aviation-maintenance-has-come-a-long-way-since-1903/), National Business Aviation Association
17. [FAA — "A Brief History of the FAA" (Air Commerce Act, 1926; mechanic licensing from 1927)](https://www.faa.gov/about/history/brief_history), Federal Aviation Administration
18. [North Central Institute — "The Evolution of Aviation Maintenance"](https://nci.edu/2020/12/09/the-evolution-of-aviation-maintenance/), North Central Institute
19. [FAA Advisory Circular AC65-11B (1987) — Airframe and Powerplant Mechanics Certification (history of A&P unified rating)](https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/ac65-11b.pdf), Federal Aviation Administration
20. [Aircraft Maintenance Technician — Wikipedia (A&P certification history)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_maintenance_technician), Wikipedia
21. [Centennial of Flight — "Air Transportation: The Era of Commercial Jets" (jet age infrastructure and workforce)](https://www.centennialofflight.net/essay/Commercial_Aviation/Jet_Era/Tran7.htm), Centennial of Flight Commission
22. [Aviation Week — "MRO Industry Expands Potential AI Use Cases" (digital maintenance history and current AI integration)](https://aviationweek.com/mro/emerging-technologies/mro-industry-expands-potential-ai-use-cases), Aviation Week Network
23. [OxMaint — "AI-Powered Predictive Maintenance for Aviation Fleets 2026" (condition-based maintenance and 787 health monitoring)](https://oxmaint.com/industries/aviation-management/ai-predictive-maintenance-aviation-fleets-2026), OxMaint
24. [Rolls-Royce — Intelligent Borescope Method (AI computer vision for HPT inspection, 2025)](https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/our-stories/discover/2025/intelligent-borescope-method.aspx), Rolls-Royce
25. [McKinsey — "The generative AI opportunity in airline maintenance" (2024)](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/the-generative-ai-opportunity-in-airline-maintenance), McKinsey and Company
26. [Boeing 2025 Pilot and Technician Outlook — global demand for 710,000 new technicians](https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/pilot-technician-outlook), Boeing Commercial Airplanes
27. [Aerotime — IFS targets aviation technicians with industrial AI push (2026)](https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/ifs-industrial-ai-aviation-technicians-mro), Aerotime Hub

### Forecasts and exposure studies

28. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 49-3011 Aircraft mechanics and service technicians (2025: 140.0 thousand; 2035: 147.6 thousand; +5.4%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=49-3011&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
29. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 49-3011 Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians: probability 0.71, rank 387 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
30. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 49-3011.00, human-rated β 0.06)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

31. [FAA — "Charles E. Taylor: The Unsung Hero of Kitty Hawk"](https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/about/history/pioneers/Charles_E_Taylor.pdf), Federal Aviation Administration
32. [FAA — "A Brief History of the FAA" (Air Commerce Act 1926, first mechanic license 1927)](https://www.faa.gov/about/history/brief_history), Federal Aviation Administration
33. [North Central Institute — "The Evolution of Aviation Maintenance" (DC-3 maintenance manual history)](https://nci.edu/2020/12/09/the-evolution-of-aviation-maintenance/), North Central Institute
34. [FAA Advisory Circular AC65-11B (1987) — history of Airframe and Powerplant unified certification](https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/ac65-11b.pdf), Federal Aviation Administration
35. [Centennial of Flight — "Air Transportation: The Era of Commercial Jets"](https://www.centennialofflight.net/essay/Commercial_Aviation/Jet_Era/Tran7.htm), Centennial of Flight Commission
36. [CNN — "Airlines reeling, laying off thousands" (September 22, 2001)](https://edition.cnn.com/2001/TRAVEL/NEWS/09/22/rec.airline.layoffs/index.html), CNN
37. [NBAA — "Aviation Maintenance Has Come a Long Way Since 1903" (787 composite structures and health monitoring)](https://nbaa.org/aircraft-operations/maintenance/aviation-maintenance-has-come-a-long-way-since-1903/), National Business Aviation Association
38. [ATEC — Workforce Data (aviation technician shortage statistics, COVID impact)](https://www.atec-amt.org/workforce-data), Aviation Technician Education Council

### Predecessors & successors

39. [FAA — "Charles E. Taylor: The Unsung Hero of Kitty Hawk" (Taylor's background as machinist and bicycle mechanic)](https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/about/history/pioneers/Charles_E_Taylor.pdf), Federal Aviation Administration
40. [Military.com — "How Military Aircraft Mechanics Transition to Civilian Aviation Jobs"](https://www.military.com/veteran-jobs/military-transition/heres-how-military-aircraft-mechanics-transition-civilian-aviation-jobs.html), Military.com

### Present-day analysis

- [BLS OOH — Aircraft and Avionics Mechanics and Technicians (2024)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/aircraft-and-avionics-equipment-mechanics-and-technicians.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [O\*NET 30.3 — Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians (49-3011.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/49-3011.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [McKinsey — The generative AI opportunity in airline maintenance (2024)](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/the-generative-ai-opportunity-in-airline-maintenance), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Boeing 2025 Pilot and Technician Outlook — 710,000 new technicians needed globally](https://www.atec-amt.org/workforce-data), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Aerotime — IFS targets aviation technicians with industrial AI push (2026)](https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/ifs-industrial-ai-aviation-technicians-mro), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Microsoft Customer Stories — Textron Aviation TAMI (2024)](https://www.microsoft.com/en/customers/story/23024-textron-aviation-azure-open-ai-service), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Veryon AI Assist launch — August 2025](https://veryon.com/press-media/veryon-launches-ai-powered-chat-assistant), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Rolls-Royce — Intelligent Borescope Method (2025)](https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/our-stories/discover/2025/intelligent-borescope-method.aspx), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Baker Hughes / Waygate Technologies — Rolls-Royce Intelligent Borescope case study](https://www.bakerhughes.com/waygate-technologies/case-study/rollsroyce-customer-story), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.