# Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

US SOC code 49-9021. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/49-9021

Also called: HVAC technician, HVAC mechanic, HVAC installer, HVACR technician, Refrigeration mechanic.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **409,670** US heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers, with median pay of **$61,010** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2012, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.energy.gov/articles/history-air-conditioning) of **25,000** from 1930, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era in this work: R-410A era + inverter-driven mini-splits + smart thermostats, 2010 to 2022.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 10.9% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=49-9021&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **14%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.65** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.65. BLS counted **251,700** of these jobs in May 2013 and **409,670** in May 2025 (+63%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1902
- Latest US employment: 409,670 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [3]
- Latest US median pay: $61,010 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [12]
- Outlook: +10.9% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [27]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 72402)
  - Employment, 2020: 29,605. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [6]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 72402 Heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$72,500. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [15]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 72402 Heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.
- **United Kingdom** (UK SOC 5225)
  - Employment, 2015: 8,000. Source: ONS ASHE 2015 [8]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14): employee jobs in SOC 5225 Air-conditioning and refrigeration installers and repairers, United Kingdom, 2015 (ASHE "number of jobs", thousands x1000; excludes self-employment). Open Government Licence v3.0.
  - Median pay, 2015: £30,766. Source: ONS ASHE 2015 [17]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14.7a): median gross annual pay for all employee jobs in SOC 5225 Air-conditioning and refrigeration installers and repairers, United Kingdom, 2015. Open Government Licence v3.0.
- **Australia** (ANZSCO 3421)
  - Employment, 2025: 37,600. Source: ABS Labour Force Survey [9]. ABS Labour Force Survey (Detailed), table EQ08: employed persons in ANZSCO 3421 Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanics, national (summed across sex and state/territory), annual average of 4 quarterly estimates.
  - Median pay, 2025: A$109,200. Source: ABS Employee Earnings May 2025 [18]. Annualised (x52) from A$2,100 median weekly earnings. ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025: median pay for full-time non-managerial employees paid at the adult rate, before tax. Surfaced via the Jobs and Skills Australia occupation profile.

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1930 | 25,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., DOE [1] |
| 1950 | 90,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., DOE [1] |
| 1970 | 190,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., DOE [1] |
| 1980 | n/a | $16,000 (estimate) | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [10] |
| 2000 | 197,930 | $32,770 | BLS OEWS 2000 [2] |
| 2003 | 212,200 | $35,160 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [3] |
| 2004 | 225,630 | $36,260 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [3] |
| 2005 | 241,380 | $37,040 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [3] |
| 2006 | 250,970 | $37,660 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [3] |
| 2007 | 262,570 | $38,360 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [3] |
| 2008 | 261,610 | $39,680 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [3] |
| 2009 | 244,410 | $41,100 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [3] |
| 2010 | 224,320 | $42,530 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [3] |
| 2011 | 231,160 | $43,380 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [3] |
| 2012 | 240,480 | $43,640 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [3] |
| 2013 | 251,700 | $43,880 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [3] |
| 2014 | 261,390 | $44,630 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [3] |
| 2015 | 274,680 | $45,110 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [3] |
| 2016 | 294,730 | $45,910 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [3] |
| 2017 | 307,060 | $47,080 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [3] |
| 2018 | 324,310 | $47,610 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [3] |
| 2019 | 342,040 | $48,730 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [3] |
| 2020 | 344,020 | $50,590 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [3] |
| 2021 | 356,960 | $48,630 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [3] |
| 2022 | 374,770 | $51,390 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [3] |
| 2023 | 397,450 | $57,300 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [3] |
| 2024 | 396,870 | $59,810 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [3] |
| 2025 | 409,670 | $61,010 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [3] |

## Sources (94)

### Employment series

1. [DOE — "The History of the Air Conditioner" (Carrier 1902, 1922 Rivoli Theater, early commercial installations and the service trade that grew around them)](https://www.energy.gov/articles/history-air-conditioning), US Department of Energy
2. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
4. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
5. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
6. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
7. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 5225, United Kingdom, 2011. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), Office for National Statistics
8. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 5225, United Kingdom, 2015. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), Office for National Statistics
9. [ABS: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, table EQ08 (Employed persons by Occupation unit group, ANZSCO 2013), latest release](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/latest-release), Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Wage series

10. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics (1980-81 edition wage context); inflation adjustment via BLS CPI-U calculator](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
12. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
13. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
14. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
15. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
16. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 5225, United Kingdom, 2011. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), Office for National Statistics
17. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 5225, United Kingdom, 2015. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), Office for National Statistics
18. [Jobs and Skills Australia: Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanics (ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025)](https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/data/occupation-and-industry-profiles/occupations/3421-airconditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics), Jobs and Skills Australia / Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Tool eras

19. [DOE — "The History of the Air Conditioner" (Carrier 1902, Freon introduction 1930, commercial refrigeration origins)](https://www.energy.gov/articles/history-air-conditioning), US Department of Energy
20. [Carrier — "The History of Carrier: Willis Carrier and the Invention of Air Conditioning" (1902 Brooklyn installation, 1922 centrifugal chiller, 1930 Carrier Corporation)](https://www.carrier.com/carrier/en/us/about/history/), Carrier Corporation
21. [ACCA — Air Conditioning Contractors of America (founded 1969; Manual J residential load calculation standard)](https://www.acca.org), Air Conditioning Contractors of America
22. [EPA — "Section 608 of the Clean Air Act" (refrigerant certification program overview, regulatory context pre-1992)](https://www.epa.gov/section608), Environmental Protection Agency
23. [Montreal Protocol — Wikipedia (September 16, 1987 signing; CFC phaseout by 1996; R-22 HCFC 100% reduction by 2020 for developed nations)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol), Wikipedia
24. [BLS National Employment Matrix — 49-9021 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (2024-2034: +8.1%, 425.2K to 459.7K)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=49-9021&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
25. [US Congress — Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (H.R. 5376; Section 25C $2,000 heat pump tax credit; HEEHRA heat pump rebates)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376), US Congress
26. [EPA — AIM Act overview (American Innovation and Manufacturing Act; HFC phasedown authority; R-410A phase-down 2024)](https://www.epa.gov/hfcs/background-hfcs-and-aim-act), Environmental Protection Agency

### Forecasts and exposure studies

27. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 49-9021 Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers (2025: 440.9 thousand; 2035: 489.1 thousand; +10.9%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=49-9021&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
28. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 49-9021 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers: probability 0.65, rank 362 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
29. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 49-9021.00, human-rated β 0.14)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

30. [DOE — "The History of the Air Conditioner" (1902 Willis Carrier, Brooklyn printing plant, psychrometric theory)](https://www.energy.gov/articles/history-air-conditioning), US Department of Energy
31. [Carrier — "The History of Carrier: Willis Carrier and the Invention of Air Conditioning" (1922 Rivoli Theater centrifugal chiller)](https://www.carrier.com/carrier/en/us/about/history/), Carrier Corporation
32. [ACCA — Air Conditioning Contractors of America (founded 1969; Manual J residential load calculation)](https://www.acca.org), Air Conditioning Contractors of America
33. [Montreal Protocol — Wikipedia (September 16, 1987 signing, CFC phaseout by 1996, R-22 HCFC 100% reduction by 2020)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol), Wikipedia
34. [EPA — "Section 608 of the Clean Air Act" (refrigerant certification program, technician credentialing, 1992 implementation)](https://www.epa.gov/section608), Environmental Protection Agency
35. [US Congress — Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (H.R. 5376; Section 25C heat pump credit; signed August 16, 2022)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376), US Congress
36. [EPA — AIM Act overview (American Innovation and Manufacturing Act; HFC phasedown authority; R-410A phase-down 2024)](https://www.epa.gov/hfcs/background-hfcs-and-aim-act), Environmental Protection Agency

### Predecessors & successors

37. [DOE — "The History of the Air Conditioner" (commercial refrigeration as the origin trade for air conditioning mechanics)](https://www.energy.gov/articles/history-air-conditioning), US Department of Energy
38. [BLS OOH — Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (entry paths include vocational training and general maintenance backgrounds)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Present-day analysis

- [BLS OOH -- Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [O\*NET 30.3 -- Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (49-9021.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/49-9021.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Carrier Global -- Abound platform and Predictive Insights module (650M+ kWh saved, 40,000+ dispatches avoided in 12 months through Sep 2025)](https://memoori.com/carrier-global-ai-strategy-smart-buildings/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [ServiceTitan -- Atlas AI: Understanding the HVAC AI Landscape in 2026](https://www.servicetitan.com/blog/hvac-ai), accessed 2026-06-03
- [ServiceTitan -- Fall 2025 Release: Evolve and Succeed with Atlas (Dispatch Pro, Field Pro)](https://www.servicetitan.com/blog/fall-2025-release-guide), accessed 2026-06-03
- [OxMaint -- AI-Powered Predictive Maintenance for HVAC Systems: Detecting Failures 3-8 Weeks Early](https://oxmaint.com/industries/hvac/ai-predictive-maintenance-hvac-systems-detecting-failures-early), accessed 2026-06-03
- [OxMaint -- AIM Act 2026 Explained: Refrigerant Phase-Down, R-410A Ban and HVAC Compliance Guide](https://oxmaint.com/industries/hvac/aim-act-2026-refrigerant-phase-down-r410a-ban-hvac-compliance), accessed 2026-06-03
- [HVAC Career Map -- Building Automation Systems Technician ($60-110k salary range)](https://hvaccareermap.org/jobs/building-automated-systems-technician), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 -- GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Schneider Electric Blog -- AI, HVAC, and building management: its been an evolution (Jan 2026)](https://blog.se.com/buildings/2026/01/14/ai-hvac-and-building-management-its-been-an-evolution/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [HVAC Know It All -- Navigating AI and Automation: A Technicians Guide for 2025 (30-40% efficiency gains projected)](https://hvacknowitall.com/blog/navigating-ai-and-automation-a-technicians-guide-for-2025), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Cimetrics Analytika -- 2,500+ algorithms for continuous HVAC fault detection and diagnostics](https://cimetrics.com/analytika-service/), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.