# Millwrights

US SOC code 49-9044. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/49-9044

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **40,330** US millwrights, with median pay of **$65,700** a year. The earliest figure here is [a Census count](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1900/occupations/occupations-part-3.pdf) of **35,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for millwrights: Laser shaft alignment systems, 1990 to 2010. Laser alignment tools and CMMS software increased output per millwright by reducing rework and enabling predictive scheduling.

Figures: Official statistic (latest count and pay); Researched context (earliest figure).

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to change +0.9% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=49-9044&ioType=o) (Official statistic).

### AI exposure studies

- **0.59** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) (Official statistic)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.59. BLS counted **38,680** of these jobs in May 2013 and **40,330** in May 2025 (+4%, a change derived by Future History). Figures: Official statistic.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Millwrights employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1769
- Latest US employment: 40,330 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Latest US median pay: $65,700 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [7]
- Outlook: +0.9% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [15]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 35,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1900 [1] |
| 1968 | n/a | $7,020 (average) | BLS historical bulletin 1650 [5] |
| 1970 | 85,000 | n/a | BLS CPS 1650 [2] |
| 1997 | n/a | $35,720 (average) | BLS OEWS 1997 [6] |
| 1999 | 80,390 | n/a | BLS OEWS 1999 [3] |
| 2003 | 64,910 | $42,390 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [4] |
| 2004 | 57,050 | $43,720 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [4] |
| 2005 | 53,080 | $44,780 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [4] |
| 2006 | 53,320 | $45,630 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [4] |
| 2007 | 49,360 | $46,090 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [4] |
| 2008 | 46,250 | $47,570 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [4] |
| 2009 | 41,640 | $48,130 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [4] |
| 2010 | 36,670 | $48,360 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [4] |
| 2011 | 37,730 | $49,270 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [4] |
| 2012 | 38,050 | $49,510 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [4] |
| 2013 | 38,680 | $50,030 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [4] |
| 2014 | 39,290 | $50,460 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [4] |
| 2015 | 40,030 | $51,390 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [4] |
| 2016 | 39,670 | $52,440 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [4] |
| 2017 | 41,360 | $53,980 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [4] |
| 2018 | 43,810 | $55,060 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [4] |
| 2019 | 47,320 | $55,560 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [4] |
| 2020 | 44,400 | $57,260 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [4] |
| 2021 | 39,240 | $60,330 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | 40,930 | $60,930 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | 37,930 | $62,980 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | 40,660 | $65,170 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 40,330 | $65,700 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [4] |

## Sources (70)

### Employment series

1. [US Census Bureau -- 1900 Decennial Census, Occupations, Special Reports: Chapter II "Comparison of Occupations at the Twelfth and Preceding Censuses"](https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1900/occupations/occupations-part-3.pdf), US Census Bureau
2. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 1970-71 Edition (Bulletin 1650) -- millwrights section, FRASER / St. Louis Fed](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/occupational-outlook-handbook-3964/occupational-outlook-handbook-1970-71-edition-499632), Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRASER
3. [BLS OES 1999 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes99nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

5. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 1970-71 (Bulletin 1650) -- millwrights chapter: "average straight-time hourly earnings in 43 metropolitan areas, 1967-68"](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/occupational-outlook-handbook-3964/occupational-outlook-handbook-1970-71-edition-499632), Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRASER
6. [BLS OES 1997 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes97nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

8. [Wikipedia -- Millwright (history: Fairbairn description of 18th-century millwright skills and tools)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millwright), Wikipedia
9. [Southern States Millwright Regional Council -- "Millwright History" (pre-industrial era description)](https://web.archive.org/web/20260513132916/https://southernstatesmillwrights.org/millwright-history/), Southern States Millwright Regional Council
10. [UBC Millwrights -- Power Generation Industry (nuclear and power plant millwright specialization)](https://ubcmillwrights.org/industry-specialization/power-generation/), United Brotherhood of Carpenters / UBC Millwrights
11. [Control Engineering -- "Methods of Precision Alignment: Mechanical, Laser, and Vibration Analysis"](https://control.com/industry-articles/methods-of-precision-alignment-mechanical-laser-and-vibration-analysis/), Control Engineering / WTWH Media
12. [Prime Field Service Corp -- "Skilled Millwrights Laser Aligning Equipment" (laser alignment in industrial practice)](https://primefieldservice.com/millwrights-skilled-precision-alignments/), Prime Field Service Corp
13. [MMI Industrial -- "Advances, Impacts, and the Need for Skill Enhancement in Millwright Services"](https://www.mmiindustrial.com/posts/advances-impacts-and-the-need-for-skill-enhancement-in-millwright-services), MMI Industrial
14. [UpKeep -- "How to Use Vibration Analysis for Predictive Maintenance"](https://upkeep.com/blog/vibration-analysis-for-predictive-maintenance/), UpKeep

### Forecasts and exposure studies

15. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 49-9044 Millwrights (2025: 40.7 thousand; 2035: 41.0 thousand; +0.9%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=49-9044&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
16. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 49-9044 Millwrights: probability 0.59, rank 325 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

### Historical notes

17. [Wikipedia -- Richard Arkwright (1769 spinning-frame patent and early factory development)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Arkwright), Wikipedia
18. [Wikipedia -- Samuel Slater (role of millwrights in early American textile industry)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Slater), Wikipedia
19. [Southern States Millwright Regional Council -- "Millwright History" (1876 Toronto union formation, 1886 UBC constitutional amendment)](https://web.archive.org/web/20260513132916/https://southernstatesmillwrights.org/millwright-history/), Southern States Millwright Regional Council
20. [UBC Millwrights -- Power Generation Industry specialization (nuclear plant millwright work)](https://ubcmillwrights.org/industry-specialization/power-generation/), United Brotherhood of Carpenters / UBC Millwrights
21. [Wikipedia -- Millwright (approximately 45% of US millwrights are unionized)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millwright), Wikipedia
22. [MMI Industrial -- "Integrating Robotics for Efficiency and Precision: The Future of Industrial Construction" (infrastructure investment and millwright demand)](https://www.mmiindustrial.com/posts/integrating-robotics-for-efficiency-and-precision-the-future-of-industrial-construction), MMI Industrial

### Predecessors & successors

23. [Wikipedia -- Millwright (history: ancient and medieval origins)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millwright), Wikipedia
24. [Southern States Millwright Regional Council -- "Millwright History" (1881-1886 UBC affiliation)](https://web.archive.org/web/20260513132916/https://southernstatesmillwrights.org/millwright-history/), Southern States Millwright Regional Council

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-21
- [O\*NET 30.3 — US Department of Labor](https://www.onetcenter.org/database.html), accessed 2026-05-21

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.