# First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

US SOC code 51-1011. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/51-1011

Also called: Production supervisor, Manufacturing supervisor, Shop floor supervisor, Line supervisor, Production foreman.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **673,430** US first-line supervisors of production and operating workers, with median pay of **$74,450** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2012, the highest was **685,140**, in May 2024, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm) of **350,000** from 1910, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era in this work: Industry 4.0, 2012 to 2022.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 1.8% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-1011&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **22.5%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.016** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.016. BLS counted **580,620** of these jobs in May 2013 and **673,430** in May 2025 (+16%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1885
- Latest US employment: 673,430 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Latest US median pay: $74,450 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [7]
- Outlook: +1.8% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [23]

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1910 | 350,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS [1] |
| 1943 | 700,000 (estimate) | $3,200 (estimate) | Est., War Manpower Commission / DTIC (employment) [2]; Est., University of Missouri Libraries (pay) [5] |
| 1979 | 1,200,000 (estimate) | $22,000 (estimate) | Est., BLS [1] |
| 2002 | 700,490 | n/a | BLS OEWS 2002 [3] |
| 2003 | 705,270 | $43,720 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [4] |
| 2004 | 696,750 | $44,740 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [4] |
| 2005 | 679,930 | $46,140 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [4] |
| 2006 | 676,640 | $47,300 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [4] |
| 2007 | 666,850 | $48,670 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [4] |
| 2008 | 658,500 | $50,440 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [4] |
| 2009 | 605,560 | $52,060 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [4] |
| 2010 | 555,260 | $53,090 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [4] |
| 2011 | 559,350 | $53,670 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [4] |
| 2012 | 568,820 | $54,040 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [4] |
| 2013 | 580,620 | $54,690 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [4] |
| 2014 | 592,830 | $55,520 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [4] |
| 2015 | 603,080 | $56,340 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [4] |
| 2016 | 610,480 | $57,780 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [4] |
| 2017 | 611,800 | $58,870 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [4] |
| 2018 | 622,790 | $60,420 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [4] |
| 2019 | 631,100 | $61,310 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [4] |
| 2020 | 599,900 | $62,850 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [4] |
| 2021 | 629,420 | $61,790 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | 659,930 | $63,510 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | 671,160 | $65,930 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | 685,140 | $71,190 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 673,430 | $74,450 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [4] |

## Sources (93)

### Employment series

1. [BLS — "Forty years of falling manufacturing employment" (BLS Beyond the Numbers, 2020 — manufacturing employment history including 1910 baseline)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
2. [Training Within Industry Report 1940-1945 — War Manpower Commission (1.7 million supervisors trained in TWI programs)](https://www.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA953080.pdf), War Manpower Commission / DTIC
3. [BLS OES 2002 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes02nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

5. [University of Missouri Libraries — "Prices and Wages by Decade: 1940-1949" (manufacturing supervisory wages, ~$1.50-1.75/hr for skilled foremen)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1940-1949), University of Missouri Libraries / BLS historical sources
6. [BLS — "Forty years of falling manufacturing employment" (manufacturing production worker and supervisory wages at 1979 peak)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

8. [Wikipedia — Scientific management (Taylor system, functional foremanship, foreman role)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management), Wikipedia
9. [Wikipedia — Homestead Strike (1892 Carnegie Steel — foreman/gang craft authority and its destruction)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homestead_strike), Wikipedia
10. [Wikipedia — Ford Highland Park plant (moving assembly line December 1913, chassis time reduction from 12.5 to 1.5 hours)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highland_Park_Ford_Plant), Wikipedia
11. [Wikipedia — Assembly line (Ford innovation, standardized work, supervisory structure)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assembly_line), Wikipedia
12. [Training Within Industry Report 1940-1945 — War Manpower Commission (23,000 trainers certified, 1.7M supervisors trained at 16,500 facilities)](https://www.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA953080.pdf), War Manpower Commission / DTIC
13. [Wikipedia — Training Within Industry (TWI programs, Job Instruction / Job Methods / Job Relations)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Training_Within_Industry), Wikipedia
14. [Wikipedia — The Machine That Changed the World (Womack, Jones, Roos 1990 — coined "lean manufacturing," MIT IMVP study)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_That_Changed_the_World_%28book%29), Wikipedia
15. [Wikipedia — NUMMI (New United Motor Manufacturing Inc. — GM-Toyota joint venture, Fremont 1984, TPS demonstration)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NUMMI), Wikipedia
16. [Wikipedia — SAP R/3 (introduced 1993, ERP proliferation in manufacturing)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAP_R/3), Wikipedia
17. [Wikipedia — Computer numerical control (CNC machine proliferation, factory floor transformation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_control), Wikipedia
18. [Wikipedia — Industry 4.0 (Hannover Messe 2011 origin, cyber-physical systems, IIoT)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Industrial_Revolution), Wikipedia
19. [Wikipedia — Siemens (Digital Industries division; MindSphere cloud-based IoT operating system connecting physical infrastructure to digital world)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens), Wikipedia
20. [US Congress — CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 (H.R. 4346, signed August 9, 2022; $52.7B semiconductor manufacturing investment)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346), US Congress
21. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (2024-34 outlook, +3%, CHIPS/IRA demand context)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/first-line-supervisors-of-production-and-operating-workers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
22. [Reuters — "TSMC Arizona chip factory produces first chips" (March 2024, $40B investment)](https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-arizona-chip-factory-produces-first-chips-2024-03-25/), Reuters

### Forecasts and exposure studies

23. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 51-1011 First-line supervisors of production and operating workers (2025: 679.9 thousand; 2035: 692.3 thousand; +1.8%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-1011&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
24. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 51-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers: probability 0.016, rank 73 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
25. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 51-1011.00, human-rated β 0.225)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

26. [Wikipedia — Scientific management (Taylor 1911, functional foremanship, transformation of the foreman role)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management), Wikipedia
27. [Wikipedia — Highland Park Ford Plant (December 1, 1913, moving assembly line, chassis time reduction)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highland_Park_Ford_Plant), Wikipedia
28. [Training Within Industry Report 1940-1945 — War Manpower Commission (1.7M supervisors trained)](https://www.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA953080.pdf), War Manpower Commission / DTIC
29. [BLS — "Forty years of falling manufacturing employment" (June 1979 manufacturing peak, 19.5M jobs)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
30. [Wikipedia — The Machine That Changed the World (Womack, Jones, Roos 1990, MIT IMVP, "lean manufacturing" coined)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_That_Changed_the_World_%28book%29), Wikipedia
31. [Autor, Dorn, Hanson (2016) — "The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade" (Annual Review of Economics)](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-economics-080315-015041), Annual Review of Economics
32. [US Congress — CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 (H.R. 4346, August 9, 2022)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346), US Congress
33. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (2024 outlook: +3%, CHIPS/IRA context)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/first-line-supervisors-of-production-and-operating-workers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Predecessors & successors

34. [Wikipedia — Scientific management (foreman as craft-promoted gang boss before Taylor separation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management), Wikipedia
35. [BLS OOH — First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (typical entry path: promotion from production worker)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/first-line-supervisors-of-production-and-operating-workers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (51-1011.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-1011.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS OEWS May 2024 — First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (national flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), accessed 2026-10-07
- [BLS OOH — Production Occupations: slower-than-average growth through 2034](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025 — manufacturing sector dual transformation](https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [MachineMetrics — Max AI launch: agentic intelligence layer for MES (Nov 2025)](https://www.machinemetrics.com/blog/machinemetrics-unveils-max-ai-real-time-intelligence-to-power-the-factory-of-the-future), accessed 2026-06-03
- [MaintainX — AI-powered maintenance operations (2025 feature releases)](https://www.getmaintainx.com/use-cases/ai-powered-maintenance-operations), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Tractian — AI condition monitoring platform; Forbes AI 50, Deloitte Fast 500 (2025)](https://tractian.com/en), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Overview.ai — AI machine vision quality inspection (Toyota, Honda, Kraft Heinz)](https://www.overview.ai/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Automation World — Deloitte: will 2026 be the year AI moves to production in manufacturing?](https://www.automationworld.com/analytics/article/55356840/deloitte-will-2026-be-the-year-ai-moves-from-possibility-to-production-in-manufacturing), accessed 2026-06-03
- [ManufacturingTomorrow — Agentic AI transforming smart manufacturing in 2026](https://www.manufacturingtomorrow.com/story/2026/05/how-agentic-ai-is-transforming-smart-manufacturing-in-2026/27588/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [PwC / Manufacturing Dive — automation to more than double by 2030](https://www.manufacturingdive.com/news/automation-ai-to-more-than-double-by-2030-pwc-outlook-manufacturing/813358/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [SmartDev — AI computer vision manufacturing quality control: cut manual QA 50%](https://smartdev.com/ai-computer-vision-manufacturing-quality-control/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [MachineMetrics — Max AI: plan vs. reality monitoring, at-risk job flags, ERP cycle-time updates](https://www.machinemetrics.com/max-ai), accessed 2026-06-03
- [PlanetTogether — AI role in production scheduling: 75% planner productivity improvement](https://www.planettogether.com/aps/digital-transformation/the-role-of-ai-in-production-scheduling), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.