# Bakers

US SOC code 51-3011. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/51-3011

Also called: Artisan baker, Pastry baker, Commercial baker, Retail baker, Production baker.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **236,200** US bakers, with median pay of **$37,160** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [a Census count](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ1880.shtml) of **51,000** from 1870, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for bakers: Recipe management software + HACCP digital systems, 2005 to 2020.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 5.5% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-3011&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **11.8%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Bakers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1700
- Latest US employment: 236,200 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $37,160 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [10]
- Outlook: +5.5% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [25]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 63202)
  - Employment, 2020: 44,755. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [8]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 63202 Bakers, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$35,200. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [13]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 63202 Bakers, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1870 | 51,000 | n/a | Decennial Census [1] |
| 1900 | 104,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1900 [2] |
| 1950 | 162,000 | $3,100 | Decennial Census 1950 (employment) [3]; BLS historical bulletin 1950 (pay) [9] |
| 2000 | 156,100 | n/a | BLS OEWS 2000 [4] |
| 2003 | 157,110 | $20,990 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 150,900 | $21,330 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 144,110 | $21,520 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 139,700 | $22,030 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 141,560 | $22,590 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 141,130 | $23,290 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 140,510 | $23,630 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 140,790 | $23,450 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 149,910 | $23,250 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 157,230 | $23,140 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 165,270 | $23,160 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 173,730 | $23,600 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 176,610 | $24,170 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 180,450 | $25,090 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 182,890 | $25,690 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 180,010 | $26,520 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 184,990 | $27,700 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 168,890 | $29,400 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 181,800 | $29,750 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 205,300 | $32,780 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 220,230 | $34,950 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 231,890 | $36,650 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 236,200 | $37,160 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (87)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA — Comparative Occupation Statistics, 1870-1930 (Census bakers and confectioners series)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ1880.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. [1900 Census Special Reports: Occupations at the Twelfth Census (US Census Bureau, 1904)](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1904/dec/occupations.html), US Census Bureau
3. [IPUMS USA — Occupations and Industry Codes 1950 (Baker occupation code, Census 1950)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
4. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
6. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
8. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Wage series

9. [BLS Bulletin No. 1014 — Union Wages and Hours: The Baking Industry, July 1, 1950 (FRASER/St. Louis Fed)](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/union-wages-hours-baking-industry-4287), Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRASER
10. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
11. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
12. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
13. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Tool eras

14. [Bakery Wikipedia — history of baking technology and guild practices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakery), Wikipedia
15. [Baketivity — The History of the Bakery Industry: A Comprehensive Overview](https://baketivity.com/blogs/news/the-history-of-the-bakery-industry-a-comprehensive-overview), Baketivity
16. [Encyclopedia of Greater Philadelphia — Bakeries and Bakers (Fleischmann yeast 1876, mechanization history)](https://philadelphiaencyclopedia.org/essays/bakeries-and-bakers/), Encyclopedia of Greater Philadelphia
17. [BCTGM — History of the Bakery International (Journeymen Bakers National Union founded 1886)](https://www.bctgmlocal19.com/history-of-the-bakery-international), BCTGM Local 19
18. [Wikipedia — Otto Frederick Rohwedder (bread-slicing machine, Chillicothe Baking Company, 1928)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_Frederick_Rohwedder), Wikipedia
19. [HISTORY — Who Invented Sliced Bread? (Wonder Bread 1930, sliced bread by 1933)](https://www.history.com/articles/who-invented-sliced-bread), HISTORY
20. [Baking Business — Baking industry evolves through investments in automation, AI (PLC and process control history)](https://www.bakingbusiness.com/articles/65041-baking-industry-evolves-through-investments-in-automation-ai), Baking Business
21. [FDA — Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA), January 4, 2011](https://www.fda.gov/food/food-safety-modernization-act-fsma/full-text-food-safety-modernization-act-fsma), US Food and Drug Administration
22. [FoodReady — AI HACCP Builder for bakeries: 70% faster plan generation](https://foodready.ai/app/bakery-software/), FoodReady
23. [American Bakers Association — Commercial Baking Industry Expected to Have 53,500 Unfilled Jobs by 2030 (ABA Workforce Report, October 2023)](https://americanbakers.org/news/american-bakers-association-warns-looming-workforce-shortage), American Bakers Association
24. [O\*NET 51-3011.00 — Bright Outlook designation and employment projections](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-3011.00), O\*NET / BLS

### Forecasts and exposure studies

25. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 51-3011 Bakers (2025: 262.4 thousand; 2035: 276.9 thousand; +5.5%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-3011&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
26. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 51-3011.00, human-rated β 0.118)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

27. [Baker Wikipedia — Assize of Bread and Ale (1267), regulatory history of baking](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baker), Wikipedia
28. [Encyclopedia of Greater Philadelphia — Bakeries and Bakers (1838 directory records, free Black women)](https://philadelphiaencyclopedia.org/essays/bakeries-and-bakers/), Encyclopedia of Greater Philadelphia
29. [BCTGM — History of the Bakery International (founding January 13, 1886 in Pittsburgh)](https://www.bctgmlocal19.com/history-of-the-bakery-international), BCTGM Local 19
30. [Britannica — Lochner v. New York (1905): Supreme Court decision striking down New York Bakeshop Act](https://www.britannica.com/event/Lochner-v-New-York), Encyclopaedia Britannica
31. [Wikipedia — Otto Frederick Rohwedder (Chillicothe Baking Company, July 7, 1928)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_Frederick_Rohwedder), Wikipedia
32. [BCTGM — Hostess Brands bankruptcy 2012 and 18,000 displaced bakery workers (Department of Labor benefit announcement)](https://bctgm.org/2013/02/), BCTGM
33. [American Bakers Association — Workforce Shortage Research (October 2023): 53,500 unfilled jobs by 2030](https://americanbakers.org/news/american-bakers-association-warns-looming-workforce-shortage), American Bakers Association

### Predecessors & successors

34. [Baker Wikipedia — guild history and apprentice-journeyman-master structure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baker), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET OnLine — Bakers (51-3011.00): tasks, skills, work context](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-3011.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Bakers, 2024-34 projections](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/bakers.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BAKERpedia — How AI Data Collection Is Shaping the Future of Bakeries (IBIE 2025)](https://bakerpedia.com/exploring-how-ai-data-collection-is-shaping-the-future-of-bakeries/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Baking Business — Baking industry evolves through investments in automation, AI](https://www.bakingbusiness.com/articles/65041-baking-industry-evolves-through-investments-in-automation-ai), accessed 2026-06-05
- [FoodReady — AI HACCP Builder for bakeries: 70% faster plan generation](https://foodready.ai/app/bakery-software/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [FoodReady — How AI Is Changing HACCP Documentation for Food Manufacturers](https://foodready.ai/blog/how-ai-is-changing-haccp-documentation/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [OrderGrid — AI Demand Forecasting for Bakeries: waste reduction and production planning](https://www.ordergrid.com/blog/beyond-the-bake-demand-forecasting-strategies-to-help-bakeries-plan-produce-and-profit), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Streamline Bakery ERP — production planning, recipe management, and wholesale distribution](https://mountainstream.co/), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.