# Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic

US SOC code 51-4021. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/51-4021

Also called: Extruder operator, Extrusion operator, Aluminum extrusion press operator, Plastics extruder operator, Wire drawing machine operator.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **60,840** US metal and plastic extruding and drawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, with median pay of **$47,720** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **65,700**, in May 2024. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://taberextrusions.com/a-brief-history-of-aluminum-extrusions/) of **40,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era in this work: Manufacturing execution systems, inline dimensional gauging, digital job cards, 2005 to 2020.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to change +0.7% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-4021&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **8.3%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.91** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.91. BLS counted **73,140** of these jobs in May 2013 and **60,840** in May 2025. The count moved sharply in one step, May 2020 to May 2021, when BLS changed how it estimates these counts, so no change is derived here.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1820
- Latest US employment: 60,840 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $47,720 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [9]
- Outlook: +0.7% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [20]

### All 29 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 40,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Taber Extrusions [1] |
| 1919 | 80,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Pennsylvania Center for the Book [2] |
| 1955 | 130,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Advanced Plastiform [3] |
| 1970 | n/a | $7,800 (estimate) | Est., BLS Beyond the Numbers [7] |
| 1980 | 175,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS Beyond the Numbers [4] |
| 2000 | 155,000 (estimate) | $29,000 (estimate) | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [5] |
| 2003 | 93,600 | $26,450 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 88,980 | $27,410 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 87,290 | $28,000 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 93,810 | $28,250 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 95,330 | $28,750 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 92,160 | $29,760 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 81,610 | $31,080 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 76,260 | $31,730 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 75,170 | $32,300 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 74,490 | $32,330 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 73,140 | $32,270 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 72,520 | $32,610 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 72,390 | $33,120 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 71,960 | $33,870 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 73,530 | $34,600 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 75,610 | $35,150 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 76,940 | $36,320 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 69,300 | $37,530 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 59,490 | $37,750 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 63,490 | $39,970 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 63,370 | $44,390 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 65,700 | $46,980 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 60,840 | $47,720 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (78)

### Employment series

1. [Taber Extrusions — A Brief History of Aluminum Extrusions (Alcoa New Kensington 1904 context)](https://taberextrusions.com/a-brief-history-of-aluminum-extrusions/), Taber Extrusions
2. [Pennsylvania Center for the Book — "The Age of Aluminum: ALCOA" (New Kensington 3,292 workers by World War I)](https://pabook.libraries.psu.edu/literary-cultural-heritage-map-pa/feature-articles/age-aluminum-alcoa), Pennsylvania Center for the Book / Penn State
3. [Advanced Plastiform — "The History of Plastics Part II: 1935 through 1980" (thermoplastic extrusion commercial adoption 1950s)](https://advancedplastiform.com/blog/the-history-of-plastics-part-ii-1935-through-1980/), Advanced Plastiform
4. [BLS Beyond the Numbers — "Forty years of falling manufacturing employment" (production operative employment context 1980s)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Metal and Plastic Machine Workers (historical context, projected decline from late-1990s peak)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/metal-and-plastic-machine-workers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

7. [BLS Beyond the Numbers — "Forty years of falling manufacturing employment" (production worker wage context 1970s)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
8. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Metal and Plastic Machine Workers (wage trajectory reference)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/metal-and-plastic-machine-workers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
9. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

10. [Wikipedia — Extrusion (history: Bramah 1797 patent, Burr 1820 hydraulic press)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extrusion), Wikipedia
11. [Pennsylvania Center for the Book — "The Age of Aluminum: ALCOA" (New Kensington history, 3,292 workers by World War I)](https://pabook.libraries.psu.edu/literary-cultural-heritage-map-pa/feature-articles/age-aluminum-alcoa), Pennsylvania Center for the Book / Penn State
12. [Taber Extrusions — A Brief History of Aluminum Extrusions (first US aluminum extrusion press, 1904)](https://taberextrusions.com/a-brief-history-of-aluminum-extrusions/), Taber Extrusions
13. [BWC Profiles / Extrusion Academy — "The History of Plastics and Plastic Extrusion" (Troester 1935 single-screw extruder)](https://www.bwcprofiles.co.uk/extrusion-academy/the-history-of-plastics-plastic-extrusion), BWC Profiles
14. [Lakeland Plastics — "The History and Evolution of Plastic Extrusion" (World War II acceleration)](https://lakelandplastics.com/history-of-plastic-extrusion/), Lakeland Plastics
15. [COWELL Extrusion — "The Evolution of Extruders: From Single Screw to Meshing Twin Screw" (twin-screw commercial history)](https://www.cowellextrusion.com/the-evolution-of-extruders-from-single-screw-to-meshing-twin-screw/), COWELL Extrusion
16. [Aline Automation — "A Brief History and Future Potential of Aluminum Extrusions" (postwar building-products demand)](https://www.alineautomation.com/a-brief-history-and-future-potential-of-aluminum-extrusions/), Aline Automation
17. [BWC Profiles — "The Future of Extrusion Technology: Automation, AI, and Smart Manufacturing" (PLC control evolution context)](https://www.bwcprofiles.co.uk/extrusion-academy/the-future-of-extrusion-technology-automation-ai-and-smart-manufacturing), BWC Profiles
18. [O\*NET 30.3 — 51-4021.00 Tasks (digital job card, MES, inline gauging context)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-4021.00), O\*NET / BLS
19. [PMC / Sensors (Basel) — In Situ Surface Defect Detection in Polymer Tube Extrusion (AI vision, March 2024)](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10975522/), MDPI / PubMed Central

### Forecasts and exposure studies

20. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 51-4021 Extruding and drawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic (2025: 60.9 thousand; 2035: 61.4 thousand; +0.7%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-4021&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
21. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 51-4021 Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic: probability 0.91, rank 560 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
22. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 51-4021.00, human-rated β 0.083)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

23. [Wikipedia — Extrusion (history: Bramah 1797, Burr 1820)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extrusion), Wikipedia
24. [Pennsylvania Center for the Book — "The Age of Aluminum: ALCOA" (New Kensington founding and World War I employment)](https://pabook.libraries.psu.edu/literary-cultural-heritage-map-pa/feature-articles/age-aluminum-alcoa), Pennsylvania Center for the Book / Penn State
25. [BWC Profiles / Extrusion Academy — "The History of Plastics and Plastic Extrusion" (Troester 1935 single-screw, Colombo twin-screw)](https://www.bwcprofiles.co.uk/extrusion-academy/the-history-of-plastics-plastic-extrusion), BWC Profiles
26. [BLS Beyond the Numbers — "As manufacturing sector changes, production occupations disappear: an analysis of employment from 2007-20"](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/as-manufacturing-sector-changes-production-occupations-disappear-1.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Predecessors & successors

27. [Wikipedia — Extrusion (origin: Bramah 1797 patent, Burr 1820 hydraulic press)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extrusion), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic (51-4021.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-4021.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS OES May 2024 — 51-4021, 66,000 employed, $46,980 median annual wage (national flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), accessed 2026-10-07
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Metal and Plastic Machine Workers (projected -7% 2024-2034)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/metal-and-plastic-machine-workers.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BWC Profiles — The Future of Extrusion Technology: Automation, AI, and Smart Manufacturing](https://www.bwcprofiles.co.uk/extrusion-academy/the-future-of-extrusion-technology-automation-ai-and-smart-manufacturing), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Seeq Industrial Analytics and AI Suite — seeq.com/product](https://www.seeq.com/product/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [IIoT World — 10 Predictive Maintenance Platforms for Manufacturing 2026](https://www.iiot-world.com/predictive-analytics/predictive-maintenance/10-predictive-maintenance-platforms-for-manufacturing-2026/), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.