# Machinists

US SOC code 51-4041. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/51-4041

Also called: CNC machinist, CNC operator, Tool room machinist, Manual machinist, Precision machinist.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **287,050** US machinists, with median pay of **$58,750** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **419,070**, in May 2008. The earliest figure here is [a Census count](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1872/dec/1870a.html) of **55,000** from 1870, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for machinists: CAD/CAM integration + multi-axis CNC, 2000 to 2023.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 1% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-4041&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **13.3%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Machinists employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1798
- Latest US employment: 287,050 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $58,750 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [13]
- Outlook: +1% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [30]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 72100)
  - Employment, 2020: 37,095. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [9]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 72100 Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$60,800. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [16]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 72100 Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.

### All 30 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1870 | 55,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1870 [1] |
| 1900 | 283,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1900 [2] |
| 1940 | 450,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., IAM Union [3] |
| 1944 | 900,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., IAM Union [3] |
| 1960 | 540,000 (estimate) | $5,800 (estimate) | Est., IAM Union (employment) [3]; Est., Estimate derived by annualizing… (pay) [10] |
| 1982 | 440,000 (estimate) | $22,000 | Est., BLS Monthly Labor Review, July 1982 [4] |
| 2000 | 420,320 | $30,740 | BLS OEWS 2000 [5] |
| 2003 | 368,740 | $33,090 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 361,280 | $33,960 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 368,380 | $34,350 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 385,690 | $34,770 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 410,900 | $35,230 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 419,070 | $36,210 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 380,720 | $37,650 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 352,650 | $38,520 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 368,510 | $39,220 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 388,370 | $39,500 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 391,130 | $39,570 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 392,700 | $39,980 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 399,040 | $40,550 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 391,120 | $41,700 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 378,320 | $42,600 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 384,350 | $43,630 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 383,470 | $44,420 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 360,340 | $45,840 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 333,220 | $47,730 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 316,860 | $48,510 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 290,720 | $50,840 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 298,790 | $56,150 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 287,050 | $58,750 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (97)

### Employment series

1. [1870 Census, Volume 1: The Statistics of the Population of the United States (occupation tables) — machinists, ~55,000](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1872/dec/1870a.html), U.S. Census Bureau
2. [1900 Census Special Reports: Occupations at the Twelfth Census — machinists, ~283,000](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1904/dec/occupations.html), U.S. Census Bureau
3. [IAM Union — History of the IAM (Timeline): membership reached 188,000 in 1940, grew to 776,000 by 1944 under wartime production](https://www.goiam.org/about/history-of-the-iam/), International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
4. [BLS Monthly Labor Review, July 1982 — "Shortages of machinists: an evaluation of the information"](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1982/07/art5full.pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
8. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
9. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Wage series

10. [Estimate derived by annualizing skilled-machinist hourly rates ($2.75-$2.90/hr) from BLS Occupational/Area Wage Survey bulletins of the early 1960s, indexed in the University of Missouri Libraries Prices and Wages by Decade guide (1960-1969); magnitude corroborated by 1960 Census machinist median earnings](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1960-1969), Derived estimate (BLS Occupational Wage Survey basis)
11. [BLS Monthly Labor Review, July 1982 — "Shortages of machinists: an evaluation of the information" (wage context for machinist shortages period)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1982/07/art5full.pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics
12. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
13. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
14. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
15. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
16. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Tool eras

17. [ASME — David Wilkinson (patent for screw-cutting lathe, 1798; father of the American machine tool industry)](https://www.asme.org/topics-resources/content/david-wilkinson), American Society of Mechanical Engineers
18. [Linda Hall Library — David Wilkinson (screw-cutting lathe; Slater Mill machinery; early American machine tools)](https://www.lindahall.org/about/news/scientist-of-the-day/david-wilkinson/), Linda Hall Library
19. [US Department of Labor History — Chapter 3: Labor in the Industrial Era (David Montgomery) — machinists, scientific management, and the American System](https://www.dol.gov/general/aboutdol/history/chapter3), US Department of Labor
20. [Wikipedia — History of numerical control (American System of Manufacturing, interchangeable parts background)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_numerical_control), Wikipedia
21. [IAM Union — History of the IAM (Timeline): membership 188,000 in 1940, 776,000 in 1944](https://www.goiam.org/about/history-of-the-iam/), International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
22. [American Machinist — 1940s (wartime machine tool production and machinist workforce)](https://www.americanmachinist.com/archive/features/article/21896269/1940s), American Machinist
23. [Xometry — The History of CNC Machining (MIT, Parsons, 1952; Cincinnati Milacron Hydrotel; commercial development timeline)](https://www.xometry.com/resources/machining/cnc-machining-history/), Xometry
24. [Forklightning — "How computers turned machinists into problem-solvers" (CNC adoption history and employment impact)](https://forklightning.substack.com/p/how-computers-turned-machinists-into), Forklightning
25. [Wurth Machinery — History of CNC Machines: From MIT Labs to Modern Cabinet Shops (Mastercam 1983; commercial CNC proliferation)](https://www.wurthmachinery.com/blog/history-of-cnc-machine/), Wurth Machinery
26. [BLS OOH — Machinists and Tool and Die Makers (2024-2034 projection, employment context, CAM tools in the occupation)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/machinists-and-tool-and-die-makers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
27. [CNCCode.com — CNC Career Paths: From Entry-Level Operator to Manufacturing Engineer (modern CNC environment description)](https://cnccode.com/2025/07/23/cnc-career-paths-from-entry-level-operator-to-manufacturing-engineer/), CNCCode.com
28. [Advanced Manufacturing — CloudNC launches CAM Assist 2.0 with AI Oversight (1,000+ shops, 80% toolpath completion)](https://www.advancedmanufacturing.org/technologies/software-update/cloudnc-launches-cam-assist-2-0/article_65074083-f547-439a-8b75-cfde625e0727.html), Advanced Manufacturing
29. [IMTS 2026 — Lambda Function: AI reshaping CNC programming for faster, smarter cuts](https://www.imts.com/read/article-details/How-AI-Is-Reshaping-CNC-Programming-for-Faster-Smarter-Cuts/2142/type/Read/1), IMTS

### Forecasts and exposure studies

30. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 51-4041 Machinists (2025: 288.3 thousand; 2035: 291.2 thousand; +1.0%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-4041&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
31. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 51-4041.00, human-rated β 0.133)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

32. [ASME — David Wilkinson (screw-cutting lathe patent 1798; National Historic Mechanical Engineering Landmark)](https://www.asme.org/topics-resources/content/david-wilkinson), American Society of Mechanical Engineers
33. [Lawyers, Guns and Money — This Day in Labor History: May 18, 1900 (IAM machinists strike, Murray Hill Agreement)](https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/05/this-day-in-labor-history-may-18-1900), Lawyers, Guns and Money (labor history)
34. [IAM Union — History of the IAM (Timeline): IAM membership 776,000 in 1944; wartime manufacturing expansion](https://www.goiam.org/about/history-of-the-iam/), International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
35. [Xometry — The History of CNC Machining (MIT 1952; Parsons and Stulen; Cincinnati Milacron Hydrotel)](https://www.xometry.com/resources/machining/cnc-machining-history/), Xometry
36. [BLS Monthly Labor Review, July 1982 — "Shortages of machinists: an evaluation of the information"](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1982/07/art5full.pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics
37. [Advanced Manufacturing — CloudNC launches CAM Assist 2.0 with AI Oversight (generally available for Mastercam July 2024; 1,000+ shops)](https://www.advancedmanufacturing.org/technologies/software-update/cloudnc-launches-cam-assist-2-0/article_65074083-f547-439a-8b75-cfde625e0727.html), Advanced Manufacturing

### Predecessors & successors

38. [ASME — David Wilkinson (machinist occupation emerging from millwright/blacksmith tradition in 1790s Rhode Island)](https://www.asme.org/topics-resources/content/david-wilkinson), American Society of Mechanical Engineers
39. [US Department of Labor History — Chapter 3: Labor in the Industrial Era (American System of Manufacturing and its workers)](https://www.dol.gov/general/aboutdol/history/chapter3), US Department of Labor

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [O\*NET 30.3 — Machinists (51-4041.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-4041.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS OOH — Machinists and Tool and Die Makers (2024-2034 projection: -2%)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/machinists-and-tool-and-die-makers.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [CloudNC — CAM Assist used by 1,000+ machine shops globally, saves 1,000+ hours/year](https://www.controlsdrivesautomation.com/CAMAssist-accelerates-CNC-programming-AI), accessed 2026-06-03
- [CloudNC — CAM Assist for Mastercam: AI plug-in for CNC toolpath generation](https://www.cloudnc.com/mastercam), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Siemens NX Blog — Lambda Function AI-assisted CNC programming partnership](https://blogs.sw.siemens.com/nx-manufacturing/siemens-partners-with-lambda-function-to-explore-ai-assisted-cnc-programming-for-nx-cam/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Mastercam 2026 — Mastercam Copilot AI programming assistant (early adopter program)](https://www.metalworkingmag.com/news/97828-mastercam-2026-revolutionizes-cnc-programming-with-ai-and-precision-tools), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Advanced Manufacturing — CAM Assist 2.0 with AI Oversight launch](https://www.advancedmanufacturing.org/technologies/software-update/cloudnc-launches-cam-assist-2-0/article_65074083-f547-439a-8b75-cfde625e0727.html), accessed 2026-06-03
- [FANUC — AI Servo Monitor: predictive maintenance for CNC machine tools](https://www.fanuc.co.jp/en/product/iot/ai_servomonitor.html), accessed 2026-06-03
- [IMTS 2026 — Lambda Function AI CNC programming at IMTS September 2026](https://www.imts.com/read/article-details/How-AI-Is-Reshaping-CNC-Programming-for-Faster-Smarter-Cuts/2142/type/Read/1), accessed 2026-06-03
- [CNCCode.com — CNC Automation 2026: AI-driven machine shops and lights-out production](https://cnccode.com/2025/12/03/cnc-automation-2026-beyond-ai-driven-machine-shops-lights-out-production-and-smart-robotics-revolution/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [CNCCode.com — CNC Career Paths: From Entry-Level Operator to Manufacturing Engineer](https://cnccode.com/2025/07/23/cnc-career-paths-from-entry-level-operator-to-manufacturing-engineer/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Glassdoor — CNC Programmer salary trends 2026 (median $64,571 US)](https://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/cnc-programmer-salary-SRCH_KO0,14.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [CloudNC — Cutting Parameters AI: physics-based feeds and speeds, 20%+ productivity gains](https://www.cloudnc.com/blog/ai-in-machining), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.