# Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic

US SOC code 51-4081. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/51-4081

Also called: Machine tool operator, CNC operator, Machine setter, Machining operator, Multi-machine operator.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **124,590** US metal and plastic multiple machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, with median pay of **$47,180** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **146,950**, in May 2019. The earliest figure here is [a Census count](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1943/demo/edwards-01.html) of **55,000** from 1870, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era in this work: PC-based CNC, multi-axis machining centers, and MES integration, 1995 to 2015. Manufacturing offshoring to China and Mexico accelerated through the 2000s following NAFTA (1994) and China's WTO accession (2001), removing entire segments of metal fabrication work from the US.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to change +0.6% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-4081&ioType=o).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1820
- Latest US employment: 124,590 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [7]
- Latest US median pay: $47,180 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [10]
- Outlook: +0.6% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [21]

### All 30 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1870 | 55,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1870 [1] |
| 1900 | 283,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1900 [2] |
| 1960 | 420,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., BLS [3] |
| 1970 | 460,000 (estimate) | $8,400 (estimate) | Est., Forklightning.substack.com [4] |
| 1985 | 280,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., NBER Working Paper 30400 [5] |
| 1990 | n/a | $22,000 (estimate) | Est., BLS [9] |
| 2000 | 200,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., O\*NET 51-4081.00 [6] |
| 2003 | 100,320 | $29,050 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [7] |
| 2004 | 97,060 | $29,250 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [7] |
| 2005 | 98,120 | $29,780 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [7] |
| 2006 | 96,480 | $30,530 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [7] |
| 2007 | 91,090 | $30,390 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [7] |
| 2008 | 87,800 | $30,920 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [7] |
| 2009 | 76,130 | $31,220 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [7] |
| 2010 | 69,330 | $31,820 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [7] |
| 2011 | 77,290 | $33,220 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [7] |
| 2012 | 85,110 | $33,960 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [7] |
| 2013 | 93,100 | $34,330 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [7] |
| 2014 | 98,160 | $34,140 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [7] |
| 2015 | 105,570 | $33,950 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [7] |
| 2016 | 117,300 | $34,340 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [7] |
| 2017 | 121,160 | $34,800 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [7] |
| 2018 | 133,840 | $35,390 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [7] |
| 2019 | 146,950 | $36,330 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [7] |
| 2020 | 134,660 | $37,510 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [7] |
| 2021 | 134,880 | $37,630 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [7] |
| 2022 | 137,060 | $39,210 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [7] |
| 2023 | 127,790 | $41,600 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [7] |
| 2024 | 129,850 | $46,060 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [7] |
| 2025 | 124,590 | $47,180 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [7] |

## Sources (79)

### Employment series

1. [US Census Bureau — Comparative Occupation Statistics for the United States, 1870 to 1940 (Alba M. Edwards): machinists counted at 54,755 in 1870](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1943/demo/edwards-01.html), US Census Bureau
2. [US Census Bureau — Occupations at the Twelfth Census (1900 Special Reports): machinists counted at 283,145 in 1900](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1904/dec/occupations.html), US Census Bureau
3. [BLS — "Forty years of falling manufacturing employment" (manufacturing employment peak narrative, 1953-1969)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. [Forklightning.substack.com — "How computers turned machinists into problem-solvers" (machinist employment peak at 2.9% of jobs in 1970, declining to 1.9% by 1980)](https://forklightning.substack.com/p/how-computers-turned-machinists-into), Fork Lightning / labor history analysis
5. [NBER Working Paper 30400 — "Automation after the Assembly Line: Computerized Machine Tools, Employment and Productivity" (CNC diffusion 1970-1990 employment decline)](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30400/w30400.pdf), National Bureau of Economic Research
6. [O\*NET 51-4081.00 — Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic (occupation introduction, 2000 SOC)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-4081.00), O\*NET / BLS
7. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

8. [Forklightning.substack.com — "How computers turned machinists into problem-solvers" (real machinist wages $28/hr in 1970, $22/hr in 2022, in 2022 dollars)](https://forklightning.substack.com/p/how-computers-turned-machinists-into), Fork Lightning / labor history analysis
9. [BLS — "The relative weakness in earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1990-2018" (manufacturing average hourly earnings $10.78/hr in 1990)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2019/article/earnings-of-production-workers-in-manufacturing-1990-2018.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

11. [Schiller Institute — "Development of American Machine Tools" (Springfield Armory, armory practice, multi-machine operators)](https://archive.schillerinstitute.com/educ/hist/devo_machine_tool.html), Schiller Institute
12. [Britannica — "Machine tool: History" (Wilkinson, Maudslay, Whitney, Whitworth, 1775-1900 manual machine tool development)](https://www.britannica.com/technology/machine-tool), Encyclopaedia Britannica
13. [CNCMachines.com — "Who Invented CNC Machines? The History of Computer Numerical Control" (Parsons, MIT, 1952 first NC machine, 1958 commercial)](https://cncmachines.com/history-of-cnc-machines-an-in-depth-look), CNCMachines.com
14. [Bantam Tools / CNC Life — "History of CNC Machining Part 1" (MIT 7-track tape system, 1958 patent, labor shift from floor to tape preparation)](https://medium.com/cnc-life/history-of-cnc-machining-part-1-2a4b290d994d), Bantam Tools
15. [Forklightning.substack.com — "How computers turned machinists into problem-solvers" (CNC adoption, 34% machinist employment share decline 1970-1980, skill shift to problem-solving and programming)](https://forklightning.substack.com/p/how-computers-turned-machinists-into), Fork Lightning
16. [NBER Working Paper 30400 — "Automation after the Assembly Line: Computerized Machine Tools, Employment and Productivity" (CNC diffusion and differential employment effects by skill level)](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30400/w30400.pdf), National Bureau of Economic Research
17. [Capable Machining — "The History of CNC Machines" (PC-based controls 1990s, multi-axis machining center development)](https://capablemaching.com/blog/the-history-of-cnc-machines/), Capable Machining
18. [BLS OOH — Metal and Plastic Machine Workers (employment factors: CNC tools, robots, offshore competition)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/metal-and-plastic-machine-workers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
19. [CNC Code — "CNC Automation 2026: AI-Driven Machine Shops, Lights-Out Production" (operators now supervise multiple cells, AI monitors spindle loads and tool wear)](https://cnccode.com/2025/12/03/cnc-automation-2026-beyond-ai-driven-machine-shops-lights-out-production-and-smart-robotics-revolution/), CNC Code
20. [CNCMachines.com — "AI and CNC Machines in 2025: What's Hype, What's Real, and What's Next" (cobot tending, predictive tool-wear, multi-cell supervision)](https://cncmachines.com/ai-cnc-machines-2025-guide), CNCMachines.com

### Forecasts and exposure studies

21. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 51-4081 Multiple machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic (2025: 127.1 thousand; 2035: 127.9 thousand; +0.6%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-4081&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Historical notes

22. [Schiller Institute — "Development of American Machine Tools" (Whitney, armory practice, multi-machine shop floor)](https://archive.schillerinstitute.com/educ/hist/devo_machine_tool.html), Schiller Institute
23. [Wikipedia — American Machinist (founding November 1877, weekly from July 1879)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Machinist), Wikipedia
24. [CNCMachines.com — "Who Invented CNC Machines?" (MIT 1952 first NC demonstration, Parsons, Cincinnati Hydrotel)](https://cncmachines.com/history-of-cnc-machines-an-in-depth-look), CNCMachines.com
25. [NBER Working Paper 30400 — "Automation after the Assembly Line" (American Machinist Inventory of Metalworking Equipment as primary data source for CNC diffusion)](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30400/w30400.pdf), National Bureau of Economic Research
26. [BLS — "Forty years of falling manufacturing employment" (NAFTA and manufacturing job declines through the 1990s-2000s)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
27. [BLS OOH — Metal and Plastic Machine Workers (employment factors including reshoring and new manufacturing investment)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/metal-and-plastic-machine-workers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Predecessors & successors

28. [Schiller Institute — "Development of American Machine Tools" (armory practice, apprentice machinists moving across machines)](https://archive.schillerinstitute.com/educ/hist/devo_machine_tool.html), Schiller Institute

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic (51-4081.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-4081.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS OOH — Metal and Plastic Machine Workers: employment -7% projected 2024-2034](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/metal-and-plastic-machine-workers.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [McKinsey Global Institute — 57% of work hours automatable, machine operators among highest-exposure roles (November 2025)](https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages), accessed 2026-06-05
- [CNC Automation 2026: AI-Driven Machine Shops, Lights-Out Production (cnccode.com)](https://cnccode.com/2025/12/03/cnc-automation-2026-beyond-ai-driven-machine-shops-lights-out-production-and-smart-robotics-revolution/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [AI & CNC Machines in 2025: What's Hype, What's Real, and What's Next (cncmachines.com)](https://cncmachines.com/ai-cnc-machines-2025-guide), accessed 2026-06-05
- [AI in Machine Tools 2026: GrayMatter Robotics AI Finishing Platform — AI-powered robotic grinding and deburring](https://machinetoolnews.ai/ai-in-machine-tools-2026-top-10/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [MachineMetrics — automated job tracking and downtime visibility for frontline operators](https://www.machinemetrics.com/), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.