# Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders

US SOC code 51-9196. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/51-9196

Also called: Paper converting machine operator, Paper goods machine operator, Corrugated machine operator, Folding carton operator, Paper machine tender.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **96,130** US paper goods machine setters, operators, and tenders, with median pay of **$50,270** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **96,950**, in May 2024, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://siarchives.si.edu/blog/cardboard-box) of **4,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era in this work: Machine-vision inspection + cloud OEE dashboards, 2010 to 2020. Vision systems absorbed routine inspection and made operator value depend on root-cause diagnosis, reinforcing the long shift from manual labor toward data-driven problem-solving.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 3.6% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-9196&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **2.6%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.67** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.67. BLS counted **94,910** of these jobs in May 2013 and **96,130** in May 2025. The count moved sharply in one step, May 2020 to May 2021, when BLS changed how it estimates these counts, so no change is derived here.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1874
- Latest US employment: 96,130 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Latest US median pay: $50,270 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [10]
- Outlook: -3.6% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [19]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 94122)
  - Employment, 2020: 3,565. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [7]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 94122 Paper converting machine operators, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$60,400. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [13]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 94122 Paper converting machine operators, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 4,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Smithsonian Institution Archives [1] |
| 1950 | 26,000 | n/a | Census (IPUMS) 1950 [2] |
| 1978 | n/a | $12,500 | BLS historical bulletin [8] |
| 1999 | 118,830 | $26,660 | BLS OEWS 1999 [3] |
| 2003 | 109,600 | $28,920 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [4] |
| 2004 | 109,560 | $30,430 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [4] |
| 2005 | 107,560 | $31,160 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [4] |
| 2006 | 113,930 | $31,490 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [4] |
| 2007 | 111,250 | $32,050 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [4] |
| 2008 | 104,170 | $33,080 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [4] |
| 2009 | 94,210 | $34,120 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [4] |
| 2010 | 88,390 | $34,130 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [4] |
| 2011 | 93,290 | $34,270 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [4] |
| 2012 | 95,690 | $34,690 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [4] |
| 2013 | 94,910 | $34,790 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [4] |
| 2014 | 92,170 | $35,260 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [4] |
| 2015 | 91,400 | $35,710 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [4] |
| 2016 | 93,100 | $36,990 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [4] |
| 2017 | 94,620 | $37,890 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [4] |
| 2018 | 97,960 | $38,730 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [4] |
| 2019 | 100,290 | $39,210 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [4] |
| 2020 | 99,890 | $39,820 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [4] |
| 2021 | 87,480 | $44,820 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | 92,050 | $45,710 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | 96,460 | $47,250 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | 96,950 | $49,390 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 96,130 | $50,270 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [4] |

## Sources (80)

### Employment series

1. [Smithsonian Institution Archives — "The History of the Cardboard Box" (corrugated and folding-carton industry origins)](https://siarchives.si.edu/blog/cardboard-box), Smithsonian Institution Archives
2. [IPUMS USA — Occupation and Industry Codes and Documentation (1950 Census, paper-products operatives)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
3. [BLS OES 1999 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes99nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
5. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
6. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Wage series

8. [BLS — Industry Wage Survey: Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills (historical bulletin series, FRASER archive)](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/industry-wage-survey-4476), Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRASER (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
9. [BLS OES 1999 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes99nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
11. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
12. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
13. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada

### Tool eras

14. [Smithsonian Institution Archives — "The History of the Cardboard Box" (Jones 1871, Long 1874, Gair 1879-1890)](https://siarchives.si.edu/blog/cardboard-box), Smithsonian Institution Archives
15. [Wikipedia — Corrugated fiberboard (early machine history: Jones, Long, Smyth, Gair)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrugated_fiberboard), Wikipedia
16. [O\*NET OnLine — 51-9196.00 Tools & Technology and Tasks (setup, monitoring, control of converting machinery)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-9196.00), O\*NET / BLS
17. [Cognex — "How AI Is Eliminating Packaging Defects at the Source" (machine vision on packaging lines)](https://www.cognex.com/blogs/machine-vision/how-ai-is-eliminating-packaging-defects-at-the-source), Cognex
18. [Augury — Machine Health / predictive maintenance for manufacturing (vibration + ultrasound AI)](https://www.augury.com/machine-health/), Augury

### Forecasts and exposure studies

19. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 51-9196 Paper goods machine setters, operators, and tenders (2025: 96.1 thousand; 2035: 92.6 thousand; -3.6%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-9196&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
20. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 51-9196.00, human-rated β 0.026)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI
21. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 51-9196 Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders: probability 0.67, rank 369 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

### Historical notes

22. [Wikipedia — Corrugated fiberboard (Jones 1871, Long 1874, Smyth machine)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrugated_fiberboard), Wikipedia
23. [Smithsonian Institution Archives — "The History of the Cardboard Box" (Robert Gair, folding cartons, Uneeda Biscuit)](https://siarchives.si.edu/blog/cardboard-box), Smithsonian Institution Archives
24. [IPUMS USA — Census occupation-by-industry documentation (1950, paper-products manufacturing)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
25. [O\*NET OnLine — 51-9196.00 summary (SOC 2000 detailed occupation)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-9196.00), O\*NET / BLS
26. [Cognex — "How AI Is Eliminating Packaging Defects at the Source"](https://www.cognex.com/blogs/machine-vision/how-ai-is-eliminating-packaging-defects-at-the-source), Cognex
27. [Augury — Machine Health / predictive maintenance for manufacturing](https://www.augury.com/machine-health/), Augury

### Predecessors & successors

28. [Smithsonian Institution Archives — "The History of the Cardboard Box" (rise of factory converting labor)](https://siarchives.si.edu/blog/cardboard-box), Smithsonian Institution Archives

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders (51-9196.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-9196.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS OOH — Production Occupations Outlook 2024-2034](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/Production/Print/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Goldman Sachs — How Will AI Affect the Global Workforce? (2023)](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-will-ai-affect-the-global-workforce), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Globenewswire — Automation Trends in Cartoning Machines Market 2025-2035](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/12/16/3206639/0/en/Automation-Trends-in-Cartoning-Machines-Market-2025-2035.html), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Cognex — How AI Is Eliminating Packaging Defects at the Source](https://www.cognex.com/blogs/machine-vision/how-ai-is-eliminating-packaging-defects-at-the-source), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Zippia — Packaging Machine Operator Job Description 2025](https://www.zippia.com/pack-machine-operator-jobs/job-description/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Northwood Technical College — Automated Packaging Systems Technician Curriculum](https://www.northwoodtech.edu/academic-programs/degree-programs-and-certificates/automated-packaging-systems-technician/curriculum), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.