# Helpers--Production Workers

US SOC code 51-9198. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/51-9198

Also called: Production helper, Manufacturing helper, Factory helper, Assembly line helper, Production line worker.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **165,700** US helpers of production workers, with median pay of **$39,070** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **539,350**, in May 2006. The earliest figure here is [a Census count](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml) of **190,000** from 1870, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for helpers of production workers: Collaborative robots and autonomous mobile robots, 2010 to 2023.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 8.2% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-9198&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **5.6%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.66** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.66. BLS counted **426,670** of these jobs in May 2013 and **165,700** in May 2025 (-61%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Helpers--Production Workers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1815
- Latest US employment: 165,700 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [3]
- Latest US median pay: $39,070 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [7]
- Outlook: -8.2% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [19]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1870 | 190,000 | n/a | Decennial Census [1] |
| 1910 | 620,000 | n/a | Decennial Census [1] |
| 1950 | 1,350,000 | $2,700 (estimate) | Decennial Census (employment) [1]; Est., University of Missouri Libraries (pay) [4] |
| 1975 | n/a | $8,300 (estimate) | Est., University of Missouri Libraries [5] |
| 2000 | 533,720 | $18,000 | BLS OEWS 2000 [2] |
| 2003 | 452,700 | $19,590 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [3] |
| 2004 | 480,430 | $20,180 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [3] |
| 2005 | 528,610 | $20,390 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [3] |
| 2006 | 539,350 | $20,740 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [3] |
| 2007 | 524,440 | $21,090 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [3] |
| 2008 | 499,870 | $21,790 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [3] |
| 2009 | 433,370 | $22,370 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [3] |
| 2010 | 394,270 | $22,450 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [3] |
| 2011 | 420,910 | $22,520 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [3] |
| 2012 | 419,840 | $22,810 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [3] |
| 2013 | 426,670 | $23,160 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [3] |
| 2014 | 420,520 | $23,610 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [3] |
| 2015 | 439,000 | $23,960 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [3] |
| 2016 | 429,890 | $24,830 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [3] |
| 2017 | 402,140 | $26,070 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [3] |
| 2018 | 350,410 | $27,730 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [3] |
| 2019 | 303,030 | $29,100 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [3] |
| 2020 | 239,340 | $30,500 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [3] |
| 2021 | 202,860 | $30,000 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [3] |
| 2022 | 190,680 | $34,670 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [3] |
| 2023 | 181,810 | $36,700 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [3] |
| 2024 | 167,490 | $38,220 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [3] |
| 2025 | 165,700 | $39,070 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [3] |

## Sources (83)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA -- Integrated occupation and industry codes, 1850-present (Census occupational documentation)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

4. [University of Missouri Libraries -- "Prices and Wages by Decade: 1950-1959" (derived from BLS manufacturing earnings)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1950-1959), University of Missouri Libraries
5. [University of Missouri Libraries -- "Prices and Wages by Decade: 1970-1979" (derived from BLS manufacturing earnings)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1970-1979), University of Missouri Libraries
6. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

8. [National Park Service -- Early American Manufacturing: Lowell and the New England textile mills (Lowell: Story of an Industrial City)](https://www.nps.gov/articles/lowell-handbook-early-american-manufacturing.htm), National Park Service
9. [Smithsonian National Museum of American History -- "America on the Move" (industrialization and material handling)](https://americanhistory.si.edu/explore/exhibitions/america-on-the-move), Smithsonian National Museum of American History
10. [History.com -- "Ford's assembly line starts rolling" (the moving assembly line, 1913)](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/december-1/fords-assembly-line-starts-rolling), HISTORY
11. [The Henry Ford -- "Henry Ford: Assembly Line" expert set (moving assembly line, 1913; productivity gains and price cuts)](https://www.thehenryford.org/collections/explore/sets/detail/henry-ford-assembly-line), The Henry Ford
12. [Encyclopaedia Britannica -- Forklift truck (history and development of powered industrial trucks)](https://www.britannica.com/technology/forklift-truck), Encyclopaedia Britannica
13. [Encyclopaedia Britannica -- Industrial robot (Unimate, 1961; automation of repetitive factory tasks)](https://www.britannica.com/technology/industrial-robot), Encyclopaedia Britannica
14. [IEEE Spectrum -- "Unimate: The story of George Devol and the first industrial robot"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/unimation-robot), IEEE Spectrum
15. [Encyclopaedia Britannica -- Barcode (automatic identification in supply chains)](https://www.britannica.com/technology/bar-code), Encyclopaedia Britannica
16. [Manufacturing Dive -- "The physical AI craze of 2026: Automation trends to watch"](https://www.manufacturingdive.com/news/physical-ai-craze-2026-automation-trends-to-watch/810860/), Manufacturing Dive
17. [Universal Robots -- Collaborative robots (cobots): machine tending, palletizing, material handling](https://www.universal-robots.com/), Universal Robots
18. [Automate.org -- "Advancing quality control with AI-powered machine vision"](https://www.automate.org/blogs/advancing-quality-control-with-ai-powered-machine-vision), Association for Advancing Automation (A3)

### Forecasts and exposure studies

19. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 51-9198 Helpers--production workers (2025: 167.4 thousand; 2035: 153.6 thousand; -8.2%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=51-9198&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
20. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 51-9198 Helpers–Production Workers: probability 0.66, rank 365 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
21. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 51-9198.00, human-rated β 0.056)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

22. [Encyclopaedia Britannica -- Francis Cabot Lowell and the Waltham-Lowell factory system](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Francis-Cabot-Lowell), Encyclopaedia Britannica
23. [History.com -- "Ford's assembly line starts rolling" (December 1, 1913)](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/december-1/fords-assembly-line-starts-rolling), HISTORY
24. [IEEE Spectrum -- "Unimate: The story of George Devol and the first industrial robot"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/unimation-robot), IEEE Spectrum
25. [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) -- All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP), 1939-present](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
26. [Office of the US Trade Representative -- North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) overview](https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/ustr-archives/north-american-free-trade-agreement-nafta), Office of the US Trade Representative
27. [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) -- Industrial Production: Manufacturing (2008-2010 collapse)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
28. [International Federation of Robotics -- World Robotics report (collaborative-robot adoption)](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases), International Federation of Robotics

### Predecessors & successors

29. [Library of Congress -- Immigration to the United States, 1851-1900 (industrial labor)](https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/rise-of-industrial-america-1876-1900/immigration-to-united-states-1851-1900/), Library of Congress
30. [USDA Economic Research Service -- "The 20th Century Transformation of U.S. Agriculture and Farm Policy" (Economic Information Bulletin No. 3, 2005)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=44198), USDA Economic Research Service
31. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook -- Production Occupations (entry requirements: no formal education credential typical)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/home.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 -- Helpers--Production Workers (51-9198.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-9198.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS OOH -- Production Occupations overview (2024-34 projections)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025](https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 -- GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Manufacturing Dive -- Physical AI craze 2026 automation trends](https://www.manufacturingdive.com/news/physical-ai-craze-2026-automation-trends-to-watch/810860/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Standard Bots -- Palletizing operations with RO1 cobot](https://standardbots.com/blog/robots-for-manufacturers-a-guide), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Formic -- Collaborative robot applications: palletizing and material handling](https://formic.co/resources/articles/exploring-the-collaborative-robot), accessed 2026-06-05
- [KUKA -- AMR autonomous mobile robotics in logistics and production](https://www.kuka.com/en-us/products/amr-autonomous-mobile-robotics), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.