# Commercial Pilots

US SOC code 53-2012. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-2012

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **47,630** US commercial pilots, with median pay of **$123,220** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **52,750**, in May 2023. The earliest figure here is [a Census count](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml) of **16,000** from 1940, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for commercial pilots: ADS-B surveillance + 1500-hour ATP mandate, 2009 to 2020.

Figures: Official statistic (latest count and pay, highest count); Researched context (earliest figure).

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 5.2% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-2012&ioType=o) (Official statistic).

### AI exposure studies

- **21.6%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) (Official statistic)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Commercial Pilots employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1918
- Latest US employment: 47,630 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [2]
- Latest US median pay: $123,220 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Outlook: +5.2% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [14]

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1929 | n/a | $2,800 (average) (estimate) | Est., University of Missouri Libraries [3] |
| 1940 | 16,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1940 [1] |
| 1960 | 55,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1960 [1] |
| 1980 | 95,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1980 [1] |
| 2003 | 19,980 | $49,830 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [2] |
| 2004 | 21,370 | $53,870 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [2] |
| 2005 | 24,860 | $55,810 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [2] |
| 2006 | 27,120 | $57,480 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [2] |
| 2007 | 29,180 | $61,640 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [2] |
| 2008 | 31,250 | $65,340 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [2] |
| 2009 | 29,180 | $65,840 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [2] |
| 2010 | 29,900 | $67,500 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [2] |
| 2011 | 31,630 | $70,000 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [2] |
| 2012 | 34,990 | $73,280 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [2] |
| 2013 | 37,340 | $74,470 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [2] |
| 2014 | 38,170 | $75,620 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [2] |
| 2015 | 39,760 | $76,150 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [2] |
| 2016 | 38,980 | $77,200 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [2] |
| 2017 | 38,490 | $78,740 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [2] |
| 2018 | 37,870 | $82,240 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [2] |
| 2019 | 37,830 | $86,080 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [2] |
| 2020 | 37,120 | $93,300 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [2] |
| 2021 | 42,770 | $99,640 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [2] |
| 2022 | 48,750 | $103,910 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [2] |
| 2023 | 52,750 | $113,080 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [2] |
| 2024 | 51,830 | $122,670 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [2] |
| 2025 | 47,630 | $123,220 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [2] |

## Sources (71)

### Employment series

1. [IPUMS USA, 1940 Census: Occupation "Airplane pilots and navigators" -- historical occupation classification (civil aviation workforce reference)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
2. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

3. [University of Missouri Libraries, Prices and Wages by Decade: 1920-1929 -- commercial airplane pilots $2,300-3,200/year (citing Manual of Occupations)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1920-1929), University of Missouri Libraries
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

5. [Wikipedia: Air Mail Act of 1925 (Kelly Act) -- origin of commercial aviation employment and airmail pilot conditions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mail_Act_of_1925), Wikipedia
6. [Wikipedia: Autopilot -- history of Sperry gyroscopic autopilot and 1947 transatlantic automated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autopilot), Wikipedia
7. [Wikipedia: Civil Aeronautics Board -- regulated era 1938-1978, CAA/CAB safety standards and pilot licensing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Aeronautics_Board), Wikipedia
8. [Wikipedia: Flight engineer -- transition from three-crew to two-crew cockpits, elimination of flight engineer in 1980s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_engineer), Wikipedia
9. [Wikipedia: Flight management system -- FMS introduced on Boeing 767, automation of navigation and crew workload reduction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_management_system), Wikipedia
10. [Wikipedia: Boeing 777 -- first commercial service June 7 1995 (United Airlines), first Boeing airliner with fly-by-wire and fully digital avionics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777), Wikipedia
11. [Wikipedia: Colgan Air Flight 3407 -- February 12 2009 crash leading to ATP 1500-hour requirement for first officers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colgan_Air_Flight_3407), Wikipedia
12. [Wikipedia: Automatic dependent surveillance broadcast -- ADS-B Out mandate effective January 1 2020 for US commercial aviation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_dependent_surveillance%E2%80%93broadcast), Wikipedia
13. [Boeing Commercial Market Outlook: Pilot and Technician Outlook 2025-2044 -- 660,000 new pilots needed globally over 20 years](https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/pilot-technician-outlook), Boeing

### Forecasts and exposure studies

14. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 53-2012 Commercial pilots (2025: 50.4 thousand; 2035: 53.0 thousand; +5.2%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-2012&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
15. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 53-2012.00, human-rated β 0.216)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

16. [Wikipedia: Air Mail Act of 1925 -- founding of US Postal Service Airmail, airmail pilot conditions, and Kelly Act privatization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mail_Act_of_1925), Wikipedia
17. [Wikipedia: Air Commerce Act -- first federal pilot licensing authority, 1926](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Commerce_Act), Wikipedia
18. [Wikipedia: Air Line Pilots Association -- founding in 1931, early labor victories including 1934 flight-time limits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Line_Pilots_Association), Wikipedia
19. [Wikipedia: Air Mail Act of 1934 -- "Decision 83" minimum wages and flight hours for pilots, airline industry restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mail_Act_of_1934), Wikipedia
20. [Wikipedia: Airline Deregulation Act -- 1978 deregulation effects: 207.5 million to 721.1 million passengers, 100+ airline failures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airline_Deregulation_Act), Wikipedia
21. [Wikipedia: Flight management system -- FMS first introduced on Boeing 767, automation replacing navigators and reducing crew workload](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_management_system), Wikipedia
22. [Wikipedia: Colgan Air Flight 3407 -- February 12 2009 crash, ATP requirement for first officers, pilot fatigue and training regulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colgan_Air_Flight_3407), Wikipedia
23. [Boeing Commercial Market Outlook: Pilot and Technician Outlook 2025-2044 -- 660,000 new pilots needed globally; ALPA membership 80,000+ pilots](https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/pilot-technician-outlook), Boeing

### Predecessors & successors

24. [Wikipedia: Air Mail Act of 1925 -- WWI veterans formed the initial commercial pilot workforce via surplus aircraft and mail contracts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mail_Act_of_1925), Wikipedia
25. [Wikipedia: Air Line Pilots Association -- WWII military pilots were primary source of airline pilot workforce post-1945](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Line_Pilots_Association), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-21
- [O\*NET 30.3 — US Department of Labor](https://www.onetcenter.org/database.html), accessed 2026-05-21

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.