# Driver/Sales Workers

US SOC code 53-3031. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-3031

Also called: Route sales driver, Route driver, DSD driver, Direct store delivery driver, Vending route driver.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **409,180** US driver/sales workers, with median pay of **$38,770** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **489,510**, in May 2022. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.thehenryford.org/collections/explore/articles/horse-drawn-vehicles-in-the-city) of **80,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for driver/sales workers: DSD mobile platforms and route optimization software, 2010 to 2022.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 7.9% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-3031&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **0.98** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.98. BLS counted **396,470** of these jobs in May 2013 and **409,180** in May 2025. The count moved sharply in one step, May 2020 to May 2021, when BLS changed how it estimates these counts, so no change is derived here.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Driver/Sales Workers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1880
- Latest US employment: 409,180 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Latest US median pay: $38,770 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [10]
- Outlook: +7.9% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [23]

### All 28 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 80,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., The Henry Ford Blog [1] |
| 1930 | 350,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [2] |
| 1955 | 600,000 (estimate) | $3,800 (estimate) | Est., The History of Frito-Lay (employment) [3]; Est., University of Missouri Libraries (pay) [7] |
| 1975 | 400,000 (estimate) | $12,500 (estimate) | Est., The Day the Milkman Went Away (employment) [4]; Est., FRASER / BLS Bulletin 1548 (pay) [8] |
| 2000 | 475,000 (estimate) | $26,000 (estimate) | Est., O\*NET 53-3031.00 (employment) [5]; Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (pay) [9] |
| 2003 | 380,120 | $20,370 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [6] |
| 2004 | 406,910 | $20,090 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [6] |
| 2005 | 400,530 | $20,120 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [6] |
| 2006 | 396,680 | $20,770 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [6] |
| 2007 | 382,360 | $21,380 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [6] |
| 2008 | 372,720 | $22,260 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [6] |
| 2009 | 363,050 | $22,740 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [6] |
| 2010 | 371,670 | $22,540 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [6] |
| 2011 | 387,950 | $22,770 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [6] |
| 2012 | 394,110 | $22,670 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [6] |
| 2013 | 396,470 | $22,720 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [6] |
| 2014 | 405,810 | $22,250 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [6] |
| 2015 | 417,660 | $22,450 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [6] |
| 2016 | 426,310 | $22,830 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [6] |
| 2017 | 426,870 | $24,040 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [6] |
| 2018 | 414,860 | $24,700 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [6] |
| 2019 | 444,660 | $25,860 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [6] |
| 2020 | 420,890 | $27,960 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [6] |
| 2021 | 477,020 | $29,280 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [6] |
| 2022 | 489,510 | $32,690 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [6] |
| 2023 | 463,120 | $35,420 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [6] |
| 2024 | 417,420 | $37,130 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [6] |
| 2025 | 409,180 | $38,770 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [6] |

## Sources (84)

### Employment series

1. [The Henry Ford Blog — "Horse-Drawn Vehicles in the City" (urban delivery horse fleet and route trade scale circa 1900)](https://www.thehenryford.org/collections/explore/articles/horse-drawn-vehicles-in-the-city), The Henry Ford
2. [Wikipedia — Multi-stop truck (history of the Divco and Pak-Age-Car multi-stop delivery vehicle, 1925-1926 emergence)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-stop_truck), Wikipedia
3. [The History of Frito-Lay: From Frito Company to Snack Food Giant (TSA Online / Texas State Historical Association)](https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/frito-lay-corporation), Texas State Historical Association
4. [The Day the Milkman Went Away: A History of Home Milk Delivery (Drink Milk in Glass Bottles)](https://drinkmilkinglassbottles.com/the-day-the-milkman-went-away-a-history-of-home-milk-delivery/), Drink Milk in Glass Bottles
5. [O\*NET 53-3031.00 — Driver/Sales Workers (BLS occupational profile, employment and wage data)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/53-3031.00), O\*NET / BLS
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

7. [University of Missouri Libraries — "Prices and Wages by Decade: 1950-1959" (BLS motortruck driver union wage data compilation)](https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1950-1959), University of Missouri Libraries / BLS historical sources
8. [FRASER / BLS Bulletin 1548 — "Motortruck Drivers and Helpers, July 1, 1966" (union wage trend data)](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bls/bls_1548_1967.pdf), FRASER / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / BLS
9. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Delivery Truck Drivers and Driver/Sales Workers (historical wage and employment reference)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/delivery-truck-drivers-and-driver-sales-workers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
11. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

12. [The Henry Ford Blog — "Horse-Drawn Vehicles in the City" (urban delivery horse fleets, 1880-1920)](https://www.thehenryford.org/collections/explore/articles/horse-drawn-vehicles-in-the-city), The Henry Ford
13. [Milk delivery — Wikipedia (history of home milk delivery, horse-drawn era)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milk_delivery), Wikipedia
14. [Mac's Motor City Garage — "America's Milk and Bread Truck: The Divco Model U, 1938-1986"](https://macsmotorcitygarage.com/americas-milk-and-bread-truck-the-divco-model-u-1938-1986/), Mac's Motor City Garage
15. [Wikipedia — Multi-stop truck (history: Pak-Age-Car 1925, Divco 1926)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-stop_truck), Wikipedia
16. [Computerworld — "Survival Tips from the Pioneers" (Frito-Lay handheld history: $4M annual discrepancies pre-1986)](https://www.computerworld.com/article/1451205/survival-tips-from-the-pioneers.html), Computerworld
17. [DSD Route Sales — Find Direct Store Delivery Jobs (industry background on DSD model history)](https://dsdroutesales.com/), DSD Route Sales
18. [Automation.com — "Intermec to Provide Handheld Computers for Frito-Lay's Precision Execution DSD System" (2004 second-generation deployment)](https://www.automation.com/en-us/articles/2004-2/intermec-to-provide-handheld-computers-and-printer), Automation.com / Intermec
19. [bMobile Route Software — Direct Store Delivery product overview (60 minutes saved/day, 98% inventory accuracy)](https://bmobileroute.com/), bMobile
20. [OptimoRoute — Route optimization and delivery management platform (founded 2013)](https://optimoroute.com/), OptimoRoute
21. [Samsara — Introducing Samsara Coach (AI-powered driver coaching at scale, launched 2022-23)](https://www.samsara.com/blog/introducing-samsara-coach), Samsara
22. [Samsara — Physical AI and AI Coaching press release (March 2026)](https://www.samsara.com/company/news/press-releases/new-ai-coaching-features), Samsara

### Forecasts and exposure studies

23. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 53-3031 Driver/sales workers (2025: 442.9 thousand; 2035: 478.1 thousand; +7.9%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-3031&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
24. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 53-3031 Driver/Sales Workers: probability 0.98, rank 674 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

### Historical notes

25. [Mac's Motor City Garage — "America's Milk and Bread Truck: The Divco Model U, 1938-1986"](https://macsmotorcitygarage.com/americas-milk-and-bread-truck-the-divco-model-u-1938-1986/), Mac's Motor City Garage
26. [The History of Frito-Lay: From Frito Company to Snack Food Giant (Texas State Historical Association)](https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/frito-lay-corporation), Texas State Historical Association
27. [The Day the Milkman Went Away: A History of Home Milk Delivery (Drink Milk in Glass Bottles)](https://drinkmilkinglassbottles.com/the-day-the-milkman-went-away-a-history-of-home-milk-delivery/), Drink Milk in Glass Bottles
28. [Computerworld — "Survival Tips from the Pioneers" (Frito-Lay 1986 handheld deployment)](https://www.computerworld.com/article/1451205/survival-tips-from-the-pioneers.html), Computerworld

### Predecessors & successors

29. [The Henry Ford Blog — "Horse-Drawn Vehicles in the City" (origin of route delivery as a distinct occupation)](https://www.thehenryford.org/collections/explore/articles/horse-drawn-vehicles-in-the-city), The Henry Ford
30. [O\*NET 53-3031.00 — Driver/Sales Workers (pivot pathways noted in occupational profile)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/53-3031.00), O\*NET / BLS

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Driver/Sales Workers (53-3031.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/53-3031.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Equitable Growth — Generative AI impact on U.S. logistics workforce (2025)](https://equitablegrowth.org/adoption-of-generative-ai-will-have-different-effects-across-jobs-in-the-u-s-logistics-workforce/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [bMobile Route Software — Direct Store Delivery product overview](https://bmobileroute.com/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [OptimoRoute — Route optimization and driver app product overview](https://optimoroute.com/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Samsara — Physical AI and AI Coaching press release (March 2026)](https://www.samsara.com/company/news/press-releases/new-ai-coaching-features), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Cigo Tracker — Ultimate Guide to Direct Store Delivery Software 2026](https://cigotracker.com/blog/direct-store-delivery-software-2026/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Frey and Osborne (2013) — The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Acropolium — AI Route Planning Use Cases and Benefits (2025)](https://acropolium.com/blog/ai-route-planning-must-have-automation-and-optimization-practices/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [bMobile Route Software — Route accounting and reporting](https://bmobileroute.com/route-accouting), accessed 2026-06-03
- [SmartDev — Proof of Delivery Automation (e-signature and GPS capture)](https://smartdev.com/proof-of-delivery-automation/), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.