# Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

US SOC code 53-3032. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-3032

Also called: Truck driver, CDL driver, Semi truck driver, Tractor-trailer driver, OTR driver.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **2,062,040** US heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, with median pay of **$58,640** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2012, the highest was **2,070,480**, in May 2024, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1923/dec/vol-04-occupations.html) of **194,000** from 1920, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers: TuSimple "Driver Out" + first-wave bust, 2021 to 2024.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 3.8% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-3032&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **17.3%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.79** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.79. BLS counted **1,585,300** of these jobs in May 2013 and **2,062,040** in May 2025 (+30%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1896
- Latest US employment: 2,062,040 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $58,640 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [12]
- Outlook: +3.8% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [45]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **Canada** (NOC 73300)
  - Employment, 2020: 350,460. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [8]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 73300 Transport truck drivers, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  - Median pay, 2020: C$56,000. Source: Statistics Canada Census 2021 [17]. Statistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 73300 Transport truck drivers, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.
- **United Kingdom** (UK SOC 8211)
  - Employment, 2025: 204,000. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [9]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14): employee jobs in SOC 8211 Large goods vehicle drivers, United Kingdom, 2025 (ASHE "number of jobs", thousands x1000; excludes self-employment). Open Government Licence v3.0.
  - Median pay, 2025: £39,141. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [18]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14.7a): median gross annual pay for all employee jobs in SOC 8211 Large goods vehicle drivers, United Kingdom, 2025. Open Government Licence v3.0.
- **Australia** (ANZSCO 7331)
  - Employment, 2025: 195,600. Source: ABS Labour Force Survey March 2026 [10]. ABS Labour Force Survey (Detailed), table EQ08: employed persons in ANZSCO 7331 Truck Drivers, national (summed across sex and state/territory), annual average of 4 quarterly estimates.
  - Median pay, 2025: A$101,920. Source: ABS Employee Earnings May 2025 [19]. Annualised (x52) from A$1,960 median weekly earnings. ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025: median pay for full-time non-managerial employees paid at the adult rate, before tax. Surfaced via the Jobs and Skills Australia occupation profile for ANZSCO 7331.

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1920 | 194,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Derived estimate [1] |
| 1940 | 1,082,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1940 [2] |
| 1960 | 1,600,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1960 [3] |
| 1980 | 1,700,000 (estimate) | $22,000 (estimate) | Est., Money Magazine [4] |
| 2003 | 1,528,630 | $33,310 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 1,553,370 | $33,520 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 1,624,740 | $34,280 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 1,673,950 | $35,040 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 1,693,590 | $36,220 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 1,672,580 | $37,270 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 1,550,930 | $37,730 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 1,466,740 | $37,770 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 1,508,620 | $37,930 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 1,556,510 | $38,200 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 1,585,300 | $38,700 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 1,625,290 | $39,520 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 1,678,280 | $40,260 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 1,704,520 | $41,340 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 1,748,140 | $42,480 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 1,800,330 | $43,680 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 1,856,130 | $45,260 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 1,797,710 | $47,130 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 1,903,420 | $48,310 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 1,984,180 | $49,920 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 2,044,400 | $54,320 | BLS OEWS May 2023 (employment) [5]; BLS OEWS May 2023 (pay) [13] |
| 2024 | 2,070,480 | $57,440 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 2,062,040 | $58,640 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (127)

### Employment series

1. [Derived estimate: heavy long-haul subset of the 1920 Census combined 'chauffeurs / truck and tractor drivers' occupational category](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1923/dec/vol-04-occupations.html), Future History (derived estimate from 1920 Census occupational data + motor-truck registration counts)
2. [U.S. Census Bureau, 1940 Census of Population, Vol. III: The Labor Force (Occupation) — truck and tractor drivers](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1943/dec/population-vol-3.html), U.S. Census Bureau
3. [U.S. Census Bureau, 1960 Census of Population, PC(2)-7A: Occupational Characteristics — drivers/deliverymen](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1963/dec/population-pc-2-7a.html), U.S. Census Bureau
4. [Money Magazine — "How Trucking Went From One of the Best Jobs in America to One of the Worst"](https://money.com/trucking-worst-job/), Money Magazine
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
6. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
7. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
8. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
9. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 8211, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2002](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2002/2002-table-14.zip), [2006](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2006consistentw_007methodology/2006-table-14.zip), [2010](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2010revised/2010-revised-table-14.zip), [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip), [2022](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), [2025](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip)
10. [ABS: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, table EQ08 (Employed persons by Occupation unit group, ANZSCO 2013), March 2026](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/latest-release), Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Wage series

11. [Money Magazine — "How Trucking Went From One of the Best Jobs in America to One of the Worst" (cites ~$38K average in 1980 nominal, or ~$110K inflation-adjusted; the median is estimated lower)](https://money.com/trucking-worst-job/), Money Magazine
12. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
13. [BLS OEWS May 2023 — 53-3032 median annual wage](https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes533032.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
14. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
15. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2006, Table 97-563-XCB2006069 (Wage and salary statistics by occupation, NOC-S 2006), income reference year 2005](https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/tbt/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&PID=96285), Statistics Canada
16. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016, Table 98-400-X2016356 (Occupation by employment income statistics, NOC 2016), income reference year 2015](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-400-X2016356), Statistics Canada
17. [Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2021, Table 98-10-0586 (Employment income statistics by occupation unit group, NOC 2021), income reference year 2020](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810058601), Statistics Canada
18. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 8211, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2002](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2002/2002-table-14.zip), [2006](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2006consistentw_007methodology/2006-table-14.zip), [2010](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2010revised/2010-revised-table-14.zip), [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip), [2022](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), [2025](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip)
19. [Jobs and Skills Australia: Truck Drivers (ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025)](https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/data/occupation-and-industry-profiles/occupations/7331-truck-drivers), Jobs and Skills Australia / Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Tool eras

20. [Daimler Truck — "The first truck in the world was built by Gottlieb Daimler in 1896"](https://www.daimlertruck.com/en/newsroom/pressrelease/the-first-truck-in-the-world-was-built-by-gottlieb-daimler-in-1896-49433712), Daimler Truck
21. [Mack Trucks Historical Museum — History](https://www.macktruckshistoricalmuseum.org/history/), Mack Trucks Historical Museum
22. [Wikipedia — Trucking industry in the United States (history section: "Trucks were first used extensively by the military during World War I")](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trucking_industry_in_the_United_States), Wikipedia
23. [Motor Carrier Act (1935) — Encyclopedia.com](https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/united-states-and-canada/us-history/motor-carrier-act), Encyclopedia.com
24. [Money Magazine — "How Trucking Went From One of the Best Jobs in America to One of the Worst"](https://money.com/trucking-worst-job/), Money Magazine
25. [Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal-Aid_Highway_Act_of_1956), Wikipedia
26. [US Law Explained — "The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956: The Law That Paved Modern America"](https://uslawexplained.com/federal_aid_highway_act_of_1956), US Law Explained
27. [NPR — "The Strange Story Of 'Convoy': How A Trucker's Protest Anthem Became A '70s Hit"](https://www.npr.org/2017/06/06/531749486/the-legacy-of-convoy-how-a-trucker-s-protest-anthem-became-a-70s-hit), NPR
28. [NTS Logistics — "A History of CB Radios and Truckers"](https://ntslogistics.com/knowledge_base/a-history-of-cb-radios-and-truckers/), NTS Logistics
29. [Motor Carrier Act of 1980 — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_Carrier_Act_of_1980), Wikipedia
30. [Wikipedia — Qualcomm (history section: "Qualcomm merged with Omninet in 1988 and raised $3.5 million in funding to produce the Omnitracs satellite communications system for trucking companies")](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qualcomm), Wikipedia
31. [Smithsonian Institution — OmniTRACS Communications Unit (artifact record)](https://www.si.edu/object/omnitracs-communications-unit:nmah_334664), Smithsonian National Museum of American History
32. [Wikipedia — Commercial driver's license (history section)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_driver%27s_license), Wikipedia
33. [CDL2Go — "The Evolution of the CDL License: A Century of Progress"](https://cdl2go.com/docs/history-evolution-cdl-license-usa/), CDL2Go
34. [NBC News — "World's First Autonomous Truck Goes Into Operation" (May 2015)](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/worlds-first-autonomous-truck-goes-operation-n354511), NBC News
35. [PR Newswire — "Freightliner Inspiration Truck Receives Autonomous Vehicle Licensing from Nevada DMV"](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/freightliner-inspiration-truck-receives-autonomous-vehicle-licensing-from-nevada-dmv-300077983.html), Daimler Trucks North America / PR Newswire
36. [Fortune — "Uber and Anheuser-Busch Make First Autonomous Trucking Beer Delivery" (October 25, 2016)](https://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), Fortune
37. [FMCSA — "General Information about the ELD Rule"](https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/hours-service/elds/general-information-about-eld-rule), Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration
38. [Crunchbase — "Autonomous Trucking Upstart Embark Goes From $5B Valuation To Kaput In 16 Months"](https://news.crunchbase.com/transportation/embark-trucks-closes-autonomous-vehicles/), Crunchbase News
39. [PR Newswire — "TuSimple Becomes First to Successfully Operate Driver Out, Fully Autonomous Semi-truck on Open Public Roads" (December 29, 2021)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/tusimple-becomes-first-to-successfully-operate-driver-out-fully-autonomous-semi-truck-on-open-public-roads-301451430.html), TuSimple / PR Newswire
40. [TechCrunch — "Embark Trucks lays off workers, explores liquidation of self-driving truck assets" (March 2023)](https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/03/embark-trucks-lays-off-workers-explores-liquidation-of-self-driving-truck-assets/), TechCrunch
41. [TechCrunch — "Report: TuSimple sent sensitive self-driving data to China after US national security agreement" (May 2025)](https://techcrunch.com/2025/05/27/report-tusimple-sent-sensitive-self-driving-data-to-china-after-us-national-security-agreement/), TechCrunch
42. [Aurora Innovation — "Aurora Begins Commercial Driverless Trucking in Texas, Ushering in a New Era of Freight" (May 1, 2025)](https://ir.aurora.tech/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/aurora-begins-commercial-driverless-trucking-in-texas-ushering-in-a-new-era-of-freight), Aurora Innovation
43. [TechCrunch — "Aurora launches commercial self-driving truck service in Texas" (May 1, 2025)](https://techcrunch.com/2025/05/01/aurora-launches-commercial-self-driving-truck-service-in-texas/), TechCrunch
44. [RoboticsTomorrow — "Kodiak Delivers Customer-Owned Autonomous RoboTrucks to Atlas Energy Solutions" (January 2025)](https://www.roboticstomorrow.com/news/2025/01/24/kodiak-delivers-customer-owned-autonomous-robotrucks-to-atlas-energy-solutions-completes-100-loads-of-proppant-with-first-ever-driverless-commercial-semi-truck-service/23991), RoboticsTomorrow

### Forecasts and exposure studies

45. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 53-3032 Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (2025: 2,221.2 thousand; 2035: 2,305.0 thousand; +3.8%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-3032&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
46. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 53-3032 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers: probability 0.79, rank 431 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
47. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 53-3032.00, human-rated β 0.173)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

48. [International Brotherhood of Teamsters — "The Early Years"](https://teamster.org/about/teamster-history/the-early-years/), International Brotherhood of Teamsters
49. [Motor Carrier Act (1935) — Encyclopedia.com](https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/united-states-and-canada/us-history/motor-carrier-act), Encyclopedia.com
50. [HISTORY.com — "Congress approves Federal-Aid Highway Act" (June 26, 1956)](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/june-26/congress-approves-federal-highway-act), HISTORY
51. [NPR — "The Strange Story Of 'Convoy': How A Trucker's Protest Anthem Became A '70s Hit"](https://www.npr.org/2017/06/06/531749486/the-legacy-of-convoy-how-a-trucker-s-protest-anthem-became-a-70s-hit), NPR
52. [Motor Carrier Act of 1980 — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_Carrier_Act_of_1980), Wikipedia
53. [Fortune — "Uber and Anheuser-Busch Make First Autonomous Trucking Beer Delivery" (October 25, 2016)](https://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), Fortune
54. [FMCSA — "General Information about the ELD Rule"](https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/hours-service/elds/general-information-about-eld-rule), Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration
55. [Aurora Innovation — "Aurora Begins Commercial Driverless Trucking in Texas" (May 1, 2025)](https://ir.aurora.tech/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/aurora-begins-commercial-driverless-trucking-in-texas-ushering-in-a-new-era-of-freight), Aurora Innovation

### Predecessors & successors

56. [International Brotherhood of Teamsters — "The Early Years" (origin with horse-drawn freight)](https://teamster.org/about/teamster-history/the-early-years/), International Brotherhood of Teamsters
57. [Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 — Wikipedia (freight modal shift to trucking)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal-Aid_Highway_Act_of_1956), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (53-3032.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/53-3032.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/heavy-and-tractor-trailer-truck-drivers.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Equitable Growth (2025) — Adoption of generative AI will have different effects across jobs in the U.S. logistics workforce](https://equitablegrowth.org/adoption-of-generative-ai-will-have-different-effects-across-jobs-in-the-u-s-logistics-workforce/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Samsara — Introducing Samsara Coach: AI-powered coaching at scale](https://www.samsara.com/blog/introducing-samsara-coach), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Samsara — New AI Coaching Features to Transform Fleet Safety at Scale (Mar 2026)](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260310128984/en/Samsara-Announces-New-AI-Coaching-Features-to-Transform-Fleet-Safety-at-Scale), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Motive — AI innovation in fleet management: Boosting safety and efficiency](https://gomotive.com/blog/fleet-management-ai-assistant/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Aurora Innovation — Expands driverless trucking service (press release, 2026)](https://ir.aurora.tech/news-events/press-releases/detail/128/aurora-expands-driverless-trucking-service-from-fort-worth-to-el-paso), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Heavy Duty Trucking — AI is Reshaping Trucking in 2026 (Jan 2026)](https://www.truckinginfo.com/articles/ai-is-reshaping-trucking-in-2026-from-the-back-office-to-the-shop), accessed 2026-06-03
- [O Trucking — Truck Driver Shortage 2026: 60K Gap, 175K by 2028](https://otrucking.com/resources/guides/truck-driver-shortage-2026/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Plus.ai — SuperDrive autonomous trucking platform](https://www.plus.ai/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Motive — Fleet Compliance: ELD Compliance reduces HOS violations by up to 50%](https://gomotive.com/products/fleet-compliance/eld-compliance/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Motive — 2026 Fleet Compliance Trends: ELD Management and Audit Simplification](https://gomotive.com/blog/2026-fleet-compliance-trends/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Omnitracs — Routing and Dispatch: AI-enabled planning and autonomous exception response](https://www.omnitracs.com/trucking-routing-dispatch), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.