# Bus Drivers, School

US SOC code 53-3051. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-3051

Also called: School bus driver, School bus operator, Student transportation driver, Special needs bus driver, Special education bus driver.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **402,930** US school bus drivers, with median pay of **$47,920** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Bird_Corporation) of **80,000** from 1940, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for school bus drivers: GPS routing optimization + student-tracking apps, 2005 to 2020. No displacement; modest efficiency gains reduced total route miles but not driver headcount, as the split-shift structure means driver cost is largely fixed per route regardless of miles.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to change +0.7% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-3051&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **17.6%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

## Bus Drivers, School employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1869
- Latest US employment: 402,930 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Latest US median pay: $47,920 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [10]
- Outlook: +0.7% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [28]

### In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

- **United Kingdom** (UK SOC 8212)
  - Employment, 2025: 83,000. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [7]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14): employee jobs in SOC 8212 Bus and coach drivers, United Kingdom, 2025 (ASHE "number of jobs", thousands x1000; excludes self-employment). Open Government Licence v3.0.
  - Median pay, 2025: £33,947. Source: ONS ASHE 2025 [14]. ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14.7a): median gross annual pay for all employee jobs in SOC 8212 Bus and coach drivers, United Kingdom, 2025. Open Government Licence v3.0.
- **Australia** (ANZSCO 7312)
  - Employment, 2025: 41,900. Source: ABS Labour Force Survey [8]. ABS Labour Force Survey (Detailed), table EQ08: employed persons in ANZSCO 7312 Bus and Coach Drivers, national (summed across sex and state/territory), annual average of 4 quarterly estimates.
  - Median pay, 2025: A$93,340. Source: ABS Employee Earnings May 2025 [15]. Annualised (x52) from A$1,795 median weekly earnings. ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025: median pay for full-time non-managerial employees paid at the adult rate, before tax. Surfaced via the Jobs and Skills Australia occupation profile.

### All 9 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1940 | 80,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Blue Bird Corporation [1] |
| 1970 | 230,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [2] |
| 1990 | n/a | $14,500 (estimate) | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook [9] |
| 2000 | 458,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., National Association for Pupil… [3] |
| 2021 | 361,420 | $37,910 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | 366,550 | $41,270 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | 371,530 | $45,660 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | 387,920 | $47,040 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 402,930 | $47,920 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [4] |

## Sources (65)

### Employment series

1. [Blue Bird Corporation — company history (school bus fleet scale, 1930s-1940s); Wayne Corporation founding history (first motorized school car 1914)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Bird_Corporation), Wikipedia / Blue Bird Corporation
2. [Wikipedia — Swann v. Charlotte-Mecklenburg Board of Education (1971 Supreme Court busing decision, desegregation era route expansion)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swann_v._Charlotte-Mecklenburg_Board_of_Education), Wikipedia
3. [National Association for Pupil Transportation (NAPT) — workforce and fleet data (approximate 2000-era employment anchor)](https://www.napt.org), National Association for Pupil Transportation
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
5. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 8213, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2002](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2002/2002-table-14.zip), [2006](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2006consistentw_007methodology/2006-table-14.zip), [2010](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2010revised/2010-revised-table-14.zip), [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip)
6. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 8212, United Kingdom, 2022. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), Office for National Statistics
7. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 8212, United Kingdom, 2025. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip), Office for National Statistics
8. [ABS: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, table EQ08 (Employed persons by Occupation unit group, ANZSCO 2013), latest release](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/latest-release), Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Wage series

9. [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Bus Drivers (historical wage context, circa 1990; BLS reported average school bus driver hourly wages of approximately $7-9/hr in 1990, annualized for part-time split-shift schedule of approximately 1,600 hours/year)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/bus-drivers.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
11. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
12. ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 8213, United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0., Office for National Statistics. Editions: [2002](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2002/2002-table-14.zip), [2006](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2006consistentw_007methodology/2006-table-14.zip), [2010](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2010revised/2010-revised-table-14.zip), [2011](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2011revisedbasedonsoc2010/2011-revised-table-14.zip), [2015](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2015/table142015revised.zip), [2020](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2020revised/table142020revised.zip)
13. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 8212, United Kingdom, 2022. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2022revised/ashetable142022revised.zip), Office for National Statistics
14. [ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14.7a (Annual pay - Gross), 4-digit SOC 8212, United Kingdom, 2025. Office for National Statistics, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Table 14. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14/2025provisional/ashetable142025provisional.zip), Office for National Statistics
15. [Jobs and Skills Australia: Bus and Coach Drivers (ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025)](https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/data/occupation-and-industry-profiles/occupations/7312-bus-and-coach-drivers), Jobs and Skills Australia / Australian Bureau of Statistics

### Tool eras

16. [Wikipedia — School bus (Massachusetts 1869 first state funding; Wayne Works 1892 first purpose-built school car)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/School_bus), Wikipedia
17. [Wayne Corporation — history (1892 school car commission; 1914 first motorized school car)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayne_Corporation), Wikipedia / Wayne Corporation
18. [Wikipedia — School bus yellow (Frank W. Cyr, April 1939 Columbia University conference, 44 national standards, National School Bus Glossy Yellow)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/School_bus_yellow), Wikipedia
19. [Wikipedia — Swann v. Charlotte-Mecklenburg Board of Education (April 20, 1971; Supreme Court unanimously upheld busing as desegregation remedy)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swann_v._Charlotte-Mecklenburg_Board_of_Education), Wikipedia
20. [Wikipedia — Brown v. Board of Education (1954 ruling; foundation for subsequent busing remedies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_v._Board_of_Education), Wikipedia
21. [Wikipedia — Commercial Driver's License (Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1986; CDL S endorsement requirement for school bus drivers)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_driver%27s_license), Wikipedia
22. [Wikipedia — School bus driver (1986 CDL mandate; Class B/C vehicle classification; S endorsement requirements)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/School_bus_driver), Wikipedia
23. [Transfinder — Routefinder PLUS school transportation routing software (company founded 1988, Schenectady NY; used by 1,500+ school districts as of 2024)](https://www.transfinder.com), Transfinder
24. [O\*NET 53-3051.00 (technology section: GPS tracking, routing software, and student management systems listed as core tools)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/53-3051.00), O\*NET / BLS
25. [National Association for Pupil Transportation (NAPT) — driver shortage data 2022-2024 (60,000+ unfilled positions estimate)](https://www.napt.org), National Association for Pupil Transportation
26. [EPA Clean School Bus Program — program overview ($5 billion IRA allocation, FY 2022-2026, competitive grants for zero-emission and low-emission school buses)](https://www.epa.gov/cleanschoolbus), US Environmental Protection Agency
27. [Blue Bird Corporation — history (first production electric school buses delivered September 2018; largest US school bus manufacturer)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Bird_Corporation), Wikipedia / Blue Bird Corporation

### Forecasts and exposure studies

28. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 53-3051 Bus drivers, school (2025: 396.8 thousand; 2035: 399.7 thousand; +0.7%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-3051&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
29. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 53-3051.00, human-rated β 0.176)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

30. [Wikipedia — School bus (Massachusetts 1869: first state to fund school bus transportation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/School_bus), Wikipedia
31. [Wayne Corporation — history (1892: first purpose-built school car; perimeter seating; rear-door design)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayne_Corporation), Wikipedia / Wayne Corporation
32. [Wikipedia — School bus yellow (Frank W. Cyr, April 1939; 44 national standards; Rockefeller Foundation $5,000 grant; DuPont and Pittsburgh Paints)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/School_bus_yellow), Wikipedia
33. [Wikipedia — Swann v. Charlotte-Mecklenburg Board of Education (April 20, 1971; unanimous ruling; busing as constitutional desegregation remedy)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swann_v._Charlotte-Mecklenburg_Board_of_Education), Wikipedia
34. [Wikipedia — Commercial Driver's License (Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1986; CDL requirement effective 1992; S endorsement for school bus)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_driver%27s_license), Wikipedia
35. [Wikipedia — No Child Left Behind Act (2002; charter school expansion; school choice policies affecting district routing complexity)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Child_Left_Behind_Act), Wikipedia
36. [EPA Clean School Bus Program — program overview ($5 billion IRA allocation over FY 2022-2026)](https://www.epa.gov/cleanschoolbus), US Environmental Protection Agency

### Predecessors & successors

37. [Wikipedia — School bus (1869 Massachusetts first state funding of horse-drawn school wagons; "kid hack" contract drivers)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/School_bus), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Bus Drivers, School (53-3051.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/53-3051.00), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Bus Drivers (2024-2034 projection, +1%, 387,300 jobs)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/bus-drivers.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [BLS OEWS May 2023 — Bus Drivers, School (median annual $47,040)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes533051.htm), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Samsara — K-12 School Bus Fleet Management (AI dash cams, driver coaching, student check-in)](https://www.samsara.com/industries/public-sector/k-12), accessed 2026-06-03
- [School Bus Fleet — Driving Made Safer: AI Cameras as a Bus Driver Co-Pilot (2025)](https://www.schoolbusfleet.com/articles/driving-made-safer-ai-cameras-as-a-bus-drivers-co-pilot), accessed 2026-06-03
- [School Bus Fleet — 2025 Trend to Watch: Tech and Telematics in Focus](https://www.schoolbusfleet.com/articles/2025-trend-to-watch-tech-telematics-in-focus), accessed 2026-06-03
- [K-12 Dive — School bus driver shortage wages and hiring (2025)](https://www.k12dive.com/news/school-bus-driver-shortage-wages-public-private/805711/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [School Transportation News — Autonomous vehicle implications for school buses](https://stnonline.com/blogs/autonomous-vehicle-implications/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [OPB / NHTSA — Waymo recall after self-driving cars passed stopped school buses (Dec 2025)](https://www.opb.org/article/2025/12/06/waymo-updating-software-after-self-driving-cars-passed-stopped-school-buses/), accessed 2026-06-03
- [Samsara and Edulog — Integrated solution for student transportation route optimization](https://www.samsara.com/blog/samsara-and-edulog-announce-integrated-solution-for-student-transportation), accessed 2026-06-03

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.