# Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity

US SOC code 53-3052. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-3052

Also called: Transit bus driver, Intercity bus driver, Bus operator, Coach driver, Fixed-route bus operator.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **159,240** US transit and intercity bus drivers, with median pay of **$59,050** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was **184,990**, in May 2023. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.apta.com/research-technical-resources/transit-statistics/public-transportation-fact-book/) of **135,000** from 1920, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for transit and intercity bus drivers: AV transit pilots, 2017 to 2025. Zero measurable employment displacement through 2025.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 4.1% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-3052&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **16.7%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.67** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

## Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1828
- Latest US employment: 159,240 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Latest US median pay: $59,050 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Outlook: +4.1% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [20]

### All 12 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1920 | 135,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., American Public Transportation… [1] |
| 1945 | 175,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [2] |
| 1964 | 120,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., Wikipedia [3] |
| 1981 | n/a | $18,500 (estimate) | Est., Wikipedia [5] |
| 2000 | 149,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., American Public Transportation… [1] |
| 2019 | 179,510 | $43,030 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [4] |
| 2020 | 162,850 | $45,900 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [4] |
| 2021 | 145,720 | $48,620 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | 141,530 | $50,890 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | 184,990 | $60,170 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | 148,980 | $57,440 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 159,240 | $59,050 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [4] |

## Sources (50)

### Employment series

1. [American Public Transportation Association — Public Transportation Fact Book (historical transit workforce data)](https://www.apta.com/research-technical-resources/transit-statistics/public-transportation-fact-book/), American Public Transportation Association
2. [Wikipedia — Federal Transit Administration (FTA history, UMTA 1964, ridership peak 1945)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Transit_Administration), Wikipedia
3. [Wikipedia — Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964 ($375 million in matching funds, creation of UMTA/FTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_Mass_Transportation_Act_of_1964), Wikipedia
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

5. [Wikipedia — Amalgamated Transit Union (ATU history, union contract standards, transit worker wages)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amalgamated_Transit_Union), Wikipedia
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)
7. [BLS OEWS May 2024, national cross-industry estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Tool eras

8. [Wikipedia — Horsebus (early US omnibus history, Abraham Brower, New York 1827-1828)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horsebus), Wikipedia
9. [Wikipedia — Amalgamated Transit Union (founding 1892 as Amalgamated Association of Street Railway Employees, organized horse-car and streetcar workers)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amalgamated_Transit_Union), Wikipedia
10. [Wikipedia — Sprague Electric Railway & Motor Company (Richmond streetcar, 1888)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Sprague), Wikipedia
11. [Wikipedia — General Motors streetcar conspiracy (1949 antitrust case, National City Lines)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy), Wikipedia
12. [Wikipedia — Yellow Coach Manufacturing Company (GM acquisition 1925, role in US bus industry)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Coach_Manufacturing_Company), Wikipedia
13. [Wikipedia — Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964 (UMTA, $375 million matching funds, creation of what is now the FTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_Mass_Transportation_Act_of_1964), Wikipedia
14. [Wikipedia — Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (Title II transit requirements, paratransit mandate, wheelchair accessible fleet)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_with_Disabilities_Act_of_1990), Wikipedia
15. [NextBus — company history (real-time bus tracking, founded 1997, 130+ agency deployments by 2013)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NextBus), Wikipedia / NextBus
16. [Wikipedia — Chicago Ventra card (smart card fare system, 2013)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ventra), Wikipedia
17. [Wikipedia — May Mobility (founded 2017, Detroit 2018, Ann Arbor 2021, Indianapolis 2021-2022, Sun City AZ December 2023)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_Mobility), Wikipedia
18. [Wikipedia — Local Motors (Olli autonomous shuttle, Lake Nona FL 2017, bankruptcy 2021)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_Motors), Wikipedia
19. [American Public Transportation Association — Workforce Development and Operator Shortage data](https://www.apta.com/research-technical-resources/transit-statistics/), American Public Transportation Association

### Forecasts and exposure studies

20. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 53-3052 Bus drivers, transit and intercity (2025: 166.4 thousand; 2035: 173.3 thousand; +4.1%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-3052&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
21. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 53-3021 Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity: probability 0.67, rank 372 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
22. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 53-3052.00, human-rated β 0.167)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

23. [Wikipedia — Amalgamated Transit Union (founded 1892 as Amalgamated Association of Street Railway Employees, Samuel Gompers initiative, Indianapolis convention)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amalgamated_Transit_Union), Wikipedia
24. [Wikipedia — Federal Transit Administration (FTA / UMTA history, transit ridership context)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Transit_Administration), Wikipedia
25. [Wikipedia — Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964 (signed July 9, 1964; $375 million matching funds; created UMTA, now FTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_Mass_Transportation_Act_of_1964), Wikipedia
26. [Wikipedia — Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (Title II transit requirements, paratransit mandate, signed July 26, 1990)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_with_Disabilities_Act_of_1990), Wikipedia
27. [Wikipedia — Local Motors (Olli shuttle, Lake Nona FL 2017, bankruptcy 2022)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_Motors), Wikipedia
28. [Wikipedia — May Mobility (Sun City AZ driverless service, December 2023)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_Mobility), Wikipedia

### Predecessors & successors

29. [Wikipedia — General Motors streetcar conspiracy (streetcar-to-bus conversion, 1930s-1950s)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy), Wikipedia
30. [Wikipedia — Federal Transit Administration (FTA history, modal shift from intercity rail to motorcoach)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Transit_Administration), Wikipedia

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity (53-3052.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/53-3052.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Bus Drivers (2024-2034 outlook)](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/bus-drivers.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS OEWS May 2024 — Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity: 158,800 employed, $57,440 median annual wage](https://www.bls.gov/oes/2024/may/oes533052.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Mass Transit Magazine — AI-Based Bus Lane Enforcement and Driver Behavior Monitoring (2025)](https://www.masstransitmag.com/bus/article/55375910/the-new-era-of-ai-based-bus-lane-enforcement-and-driver-behavior-monitoring), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Via Transportation — Via Intelligence AI platform for public transit (August 2025)](https://ridewithvia.com/news/via-unveils-via-intelligence-the-first-ever-vertical-ai-platform-for-public-transit), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Urban Institute — AI and machine learning shaping the future of public transit](https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/ai-and-machine-learning-are-shaping-future-public-transit), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Swiftly — real-time passenger information and onboard operator tools](https://www.goswift.ly/platform), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Peak Transit — role of CAD/AVL in modern transit operations](https://www.peaktransit.com/the-role-of-cad-avl-in-modern-transit-operations), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.