# Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters

US SOC code 53-4031. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-4031

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **46,440** US railroad conductors and yardmasters, with median pay of **$78,000** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was **48,030**, in May 2021, close to the May 2025 count. The last full technology era for railroad conductors and yardmasters: Computer-aided dispatching and Positive Train Control, 1995 to 2020. PTC has not reduced conductor headcount in the post-2020 period.

Figures: Official statistic.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to change +0.9% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-4031&ioType=o) (Official statistic).

### AI exposure studies

- **20.8%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) (Official statistic)

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1831
- Latest US employment: 46,440 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [3]
- Latest US median pay: $78,000 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Outlook: +0.9% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [17]

### All 25 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1999 | 36,680 | n/a | BLS OEWS 1999 [1] |
| 2001 | 40,910 | n/a | BLS OEWS 2001 [2] |
| 2003 | 34,720 | $44,320 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [3] |
| 2004 | 35,720 | $46,340 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [3] |
| 2005 | 38,330 | $54,040 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [3] |
| 2006 | 37,110 | $55,530 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [3] |
| 2007 | 37,540 | $58,650 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [3] |
| 2008 | 39,580 | $52,830 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [3] |
| 2009 | 41,540 | $53,940 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [3] |
| 2010 | 42,700 | $49,770 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [3] |
| 2011 | 44,280 | $53,880 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [3] |
| 2012 | 42,740 | $54,700 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [3] |
| 2013 | 43,100 | $56,060 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [3] |
| 2014 | 42,900 | $54,770 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [3] |
| 2015 | 42,330 | $55,930 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [3] |
| 2016 | 42,880 | $57,480 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [3] |
| 2017 | 44,490 | $60,300 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [3] |
| 2018 | 42,360 | $62,930 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [3] |
| 2019 | 45,710 | $65,990 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [3] |
| 2020 | 44,920 | $64,030 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [3] |
| 2021 | 48,030 | $63,960 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [3] |
| 2022 | 40,940 | $68,180 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [3] |
| 2023 | 46,490 | $71,130 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [3] |
| 2024 | 42,710 | $74,080 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [3] |
| 2025 | 46,440 | $78,000 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [3] |

## Sources (74)

### Employment series

1. [BLS OES 1999 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes99nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2. [BLS OES 2001 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes01nat.zip), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

5. [Library of Congress — "The Beginnings of American Railroads and Mapping" (history of early railroad operations 1828-1850)](https://www.loc.gov/collections/railroad-maps-1828-to-1900/articles-and-essays/history-of-railroads-and-maps/the-beginnings-of-american-railroads-and-mapping/), Library of Congress
6. [Wikipedia — John T. Clark (first railroad conductor, Mohawk and Hudson Railroad, August 9, 1831)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_T._Clark), Wikipedia
7. [Wikipedia — History of rail transportation in the United States (telegraph and train order system history)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rail_transportation_in_the_United_States), Wikipedia
8. [Wikipedia — Order of Railway Conductors (founding 1868, professional context of the conductor role)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_Railway_Conductors), Wikipedia
9. [AAR — Chronology of America's Freight Railroads (diesel transition and railroad labor history 1945-1970)](https://www.aar.org/chronology-of-americas-freight-railroads/), Association of American Railroads
10. [HowStuffWorks History — "Railroads of the 1920s" (peak railroad employment and technological change)](https://history.howstuffworks.com/american-history/railroads-of-the-1920s.htm), HowStuffWorks
11. [American-Rails.com — "The End-of-Train Device (ETD) and Its Impact on Railroading" (FRED history 1969, caboose elimination)](https://www.american-rails.com/etd.html), American-Rails.com
12. [Trains Magazine — "End-of-train devices replaced cabooses" (history of FRED and caboose retirement)](https://www.trains.com/trn/train-basics/abcs-of-railroading/end-of-train-devices/), Trains Magazine
13. [FRA — "Federal Railroad Administration Announces Landmark Achievement with Full Implementation of Positive Train Control" (December 2020)](https://railroads.dot.gov/newsroom/press-releases/federal-railroad-administration-announces-landmark-achievement-full), Federal Railroad Administration
14. [Eno Center for Transportation — "Railroads Successfully Implement Positive Train Control Technology Two Days Before Extended Deadline"](https://enotrans.org/article/railroads-successfully-implement-positive-train-control-technology-two-days-before-extended-deadline/), Eno Center for Transportation
15. [Trains Magazine — "News Wire top stories of 2024, No. 9: FRA's two-person crew rule"](https://www.trains.com/pro/regulatory/news-wire-top-stories-of-2024-no-9-fras-two-person-crew-rule/), Trains Magazine
16. [Duane Morris LLP — "Federal Railroad Administration Mandates Two-Person Crews for Freight Trains" (April 2024 final rule summary)](https://www.duanemorris.com/alerts/federal_railroad_administration_mandates_two_person_crews_freight_trains_0424.html), Duane Morris LLP

### Forecasts and exposure studies

17. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 53-4031 Railroad conductors and yardmasters (2025: 38.9 thousand; 2035: 39.2 thousand; +0.9%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-4031&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
18. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 53-4031.00, human-rated β 0.208)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

19. [Wikipedia — John T. Clark (first conductor, Mohawk and Hudson Railroad, August 9, 1831)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_T._Clark), Wikipedia
20. [Wikipedia — Order of Railway Conductors (founding December 15, 1868, history and evolution)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_Railway_Conductors), Wikipedia
21. [AAR — Chronology of America's Freight Railroads (1980 Staggers Act and railroad deregulation)](https://www.aar.org/chronology-of-americas-freight-railroads/), Association of American Railroads
22. [American-Rails.com — "The End-of-Train Device (ETD) and Its Impact on Railroading" (caboose retirement by 1990)](https://www.american-rails.com/etd.html), American-Rails.com
23. [Wikipedia — History of rail transportation in the United States (2008 Chatsworth collision and Rail Safety Improvement Act)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rail_transportation_in_the_United_States), Wikipedia
24. [FRA — "Federal Railroad Administration Announces Landmark Achievement with Full Implementation of Positive Train Control"](https://railroads.dot.gov/newsroom/press-releases/federal-railroad-administration-announces-landmark-achievement-full), Federal Railroad Administration
25. [AAR — "Majority of Rail Labor Unions Ratify Negotiated Contracts" (2022 national rail contract negotiations)](https://www.aar.org/news/majority-of-rail-labor-unions-ratify-negotiated-contracts/), Association of American Railroads
26. [Trains Magazine — "News Wire top stories of 2024, No. 9: FRA's two-person crew rule" (April 2024 final rule)](https://www.trains.com/pro/regulatory/news-wire-top-stories-of-2024-no-9-fras-two-person-crew-rule/), Trains Magazine

### Predecessors & successors

27. [Transportation History Association — "1831: A Railroad 'First' Takes Place in New York" (maritime origins of the conductor role)](https://transportationhistory.org/2023/08/09/1831-a-railroad-first-takes-place-in-new-york/), Transportation History Association
28. [American-Rails.com — "Train Conductor: Salary, Requirements, History" (career ladder from brakeman to conductor)](https://www.american-rails.com/conductor.html), American-Rails.com

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-21
- [O\*NET 30.3 — US Department of Labor](https://www.onetcenter.org/database.html), accessed 2026-05-21

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.